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November 20-21 Early Season Snowstorm


Hoosier

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forecast sounding out over southern Lake Michigan tomorrow afternoon

 

 

 

It would be better to show this in BUFKIT, but there's a few hundred J/kg CAPE even on this unmodified sounding.  Imagine what it would look like with a lake temp of 50.  

 

was just looking at that...non zero instability popping up especially on the 4k NAM over the lake and downwind of the lake tomorrow morning into afternoon

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GFS absolutely clobbers a large section of the subforum.

 

8-14 inches Chicago and NW of Detroit.

Would be funny if our best storm ends up happening outside DJF.

 

1974-75 deja vu? I'm liking '77-78 on moisture 'roids myself..

 

Souix Falls reporting 10"+ already.

 

I like where we sit too wrt double digit totals. One time of the year I'm glad to be nowhere near the lake

 

Bullseye.

 

I see you bullseye bro!

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MCD 1987...

 

mcd1987.gif

 

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1987
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0151 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...IA...FAR NERN NEB

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

   VALID 201951Z - 210045Z

   SUMMARY...A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR WILL LIKELY
   SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS A LARGE PART OF IA INTO THIS EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS ONGOING FROM NERN NEB ACROSS
   SIOUXLAND INTO N-CNTRL IA. LEADING PORTION OF THE HEAVY SNOW
   APPEARED TO COINCIDE WELL WITH 700-MB FRONTOGENESIS SUPPORTING
   INTENSE RATES OF 2-3 IN/HR EARLIER TODAY NEAR SIOUX FALLS. WHILE
   REFLECTIVITY HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT SUBDUED OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS AS
   THE 700-MB FRONTOGENESIS HAS SHIFTED NE...MID-LEVEL DCVA DOWNSTREAM
   OF A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER CNTRL NEB IS YIELDING A MERGER OF HEAVY
   SNOW BANDS ACROSS SIOUXLAND. ASCENT TIED TO THE DCVA AND LOW-LEVEL
   ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD FOSTER A BROAD SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW THROUGH
   EARLY EVENING...LIKELY PIVOTING ESE. WITH AMDAR DATA INVOF KOMA
   DEPICTING SATURATION DOWN TO ABOUT 850 MB /COMPARED TO 700 MB IN THE
   12Z RAOB/...THE I-80 CORRIDOR IN IA SHOULD BE ROUGHLY THE SRN EXTENT
   OF HEAVY SNOW THROUGH 02Z.

   ..GRAMS.. 11/20/2015

 

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Any live streams that may come in handy later for this one folks?

I'm streaming my front yard: http://www.ustream.tv/channel/libertyville-snow

 

Everything looks pretty on-target compared to models. Impressive totals showing up in some of those persistent bands. Interestingly, looking at radar things look a little more scattered in the southern half of Iowa than I expected.

E5X8BPY.png

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Just checking in with you all. :)

Anyways, I hope this is the case as it seems a fair amount of guidance wants to sorta sucker-hole IKK and surrounding areas. I guess we'll see. Good luck to all.

 

 

Hey.

 

Yeah, we're in a similar situation, being on the edge of the better precip.  fwiw, 15z SREF plumes are very similar for our two areas. 

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