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November 20-21 Early Season Snowstorm


Hoosier

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Here is the zoomed in 4km NAM snowfall amounts. Thought it really picked up on lake enhancement well along with lesser amounts just along the immediate lakeshore but still solid amounts just to the west across Cook co. 

 

attachicon.gifhires_snow_chicago_37.png

 

Yeah that's a legit view.  Has the band further S than the GEM or GFS.  GFS seems sloppy with the band.

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If it's just assuming rain where temps are 35, then yeah, it could be wrong as we've all seen it snow at those temps.  But I'm not sure how it calcuates ptype.

I wish we could see the upper layers temperature-wise. At 850mb, the HRRR is about 2 degrees warmer than the GFS or the NAM. It could be that the model is simply on the warmer side of guidance.

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