Chambana Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Chicago has had the hot hand for winter storms, since 2013. Why stop now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Significant south extent of the snow. All the way down to Decatur/champaign I've noticed most models this morning want to bring 2-4" as far south as Decatur/Champaign lineSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 KALO 201743Z 02005KT 1/2SM R12/3500VP6000FT SN VV015 M01/M04 A3024 RMK AO2 SNB16 P0000 T10111039 central iowa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 That I-88 corridor getting love from all the ladies looks like the HRRR has the same idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 looks like the HRRR has the same idea end of the 16z run valid at midnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Would be funny if our best storm ends up happening outside DJF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Euro in agreement on location of lake effect band over NE Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 Tricky call here being about 5-6 miles inland from the lake. I've got to think there will be at least some marine influence, but overall I'm more optimistic about amounts then yesterday. I'm thinking 4-6" is doable for mby. If marine influence is negligible, then over 6" might be possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Euro in agreement on location of lake effect band over NE Illinois. ecmwf_tsnow_chicago_7.png euro consistently showing around 6" for our area, so that has to count for something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Tricky call here being about 5-6 miles inland from the lake. I've got to think there will be at least some marine influence, but overall I'm more optimistic about amounts then yesterday. I'm thinking 4-6" is doable for mby. If marine influence is negligible, then over 6" might be possible. I think your issue will be more lack of QPF than temperatures. The Euro actually backed off a fair amount on the southern end from its 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Ukie furthest NW and GFS south. Minor differences but could play into p-type issues for some (particularly SEMI). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 I think your issue will be more lack of QPF than temperatures. The Euro actually backed off a fair amount on the southern end from its 00z run. Yeah that's a concern. Riding the southern edge of the better amounts, though some models indicating AOA .75" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 euro consistently showing around 6" for our area, so that has to count for something I think the hi-res guidance is too aggressive with the lakefront rain, especially the HRRR. Perhaps we see some rain mixed in with the snow at the very onset, but I think this is without a doubt a mostly-- if not all snow-- event. I'm going to adjust my call slightly and say 3-5 for the city proper, perhaps slightly less on the immediate lake front. I could see a maximum of an inch difference in the West Loop vs. Navy Pier. The Euro backed off a bit from the numbers it was spitting out yesterday for our area. I'm inclined to think the Euro as it stands now is a good call. NAM and RGEM imo are a bit too bullish for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 I think the hi-res guidance is too aggressive with the lakefront rain, especially the HRRR. Perhaps we see some rain mixed in with the snow at the very onset, but I think this is without a doubt a mostly-- if not all snow-- event. I'm going to adjust my call slightly and say 3-5 for the city proper, perhaps slightly less on the immediate lake front. I could see a maximum of an inch difference in the West Loop vs. Navy Pier. The Euro backed off a bit from the numbers it was spitting out yesterday for our area. I'm inclined to think the Euro as it stands now is a good call. NAM and RGEM imo are a bit too bullish for us. Agree, really don't see rain with a possible exception being at onset. With 950 mb below 0C, it would have to be an inferno underneath to not get flakes to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Charger, the NAM was assuming that the lake temps would hamper our snow, which no other model shows and the NAMs thermal profiles didn't show it happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 Charger, the NAM was assuming that the lake temps would hamper our snow, which no other model shows and the NAMs thermal profiles didn't show it happening. Hillsdale is like 100 miles inland so I'm going to go way out on a limb and say that the less snowy NAM solution was for another reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Hillsdale is like 100 miles inland so I'm going to go way out on a limb and say that the less snowy NAM solution was for another reason. Yeah... Probably reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 It had rain mixed in, which no other model has, so I don't care what the NAM said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 I wonder what the WFOs are gonna do to the Winter Storm Watches soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 My memory could be faulty but I seem to remember more low level warmth being progged back in that November 2004 storm...I think 950 mb had trouble dropping below 0C near the lake, which would've meant a deeper warm layer near the surface. fwiw and I can't say for sure that I'm right, and there's probably no way to go back and check something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Charger, the NAM was assuming that the lake temps would hamper our snow, which no other model shows and the NAMs thermal profiles didn't show it happening. You live in Hillsdale County, you are about as far as possible from the lake... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 That's why I don't get how the NAM has rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 It had rain mixed in, which no other model has, so I don't care what the NAM said. Do you ever think "maybe I shouldn't post this"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 That's why I don't get how the NAM has rain. NAM doesn't have rain there. Stop posting nonsense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 My memory could be faulty but I seem to remember more low level warmth being progged back in that November 2004 storm...I think 950 mb had trouble dropping below 0C near the lake, which would've meant a deeper warm layer near the surface. fwiw and I can't say for sure that I'm right, and there's probably no way to go back and check something like that. I would suspect that was the case. I went back and looked at MDW's obs earlier, they were like 44 with a 20 mph NE wind at 1 am, light rain at 8 am and didn't flip to snow until after 2 pm with a temp around 34. I think the lighter winds are going to keep the warm layer much more shallow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 I wonder what the WFOs are gonna do to the Winter Storm Watches soon well considering it's only 1230/130 they've got plenty of time to figure it out before AFD's come out.....Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 When your snow amounts are less than other models, it pays to check qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 5" of cement at 5:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 band starting to really shape up in through Iowa... 850 transport looking nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.