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November 20-21 Early Season Snowstorm


Hoosier

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REA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI  
1023 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2015  
   
UPDATE
 
OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH INITIAL LOOK AT  
12Z GUID. UPPER TROUGH WILL CARVE OUT ACROSS THE MID MISS VLY WITH  
NEWD CURVE TO UPPER SPEED MAX. LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS SPEED  
MAX FAVORS A MORE NWD SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT. LOCALLY WE HAVE SEEN  
THAT THE WARMER GREAT LAKES WATERS TENDS TO DRAW THESE LOWS CLOSER  
AS WELL.
WE ARE ALSO SEEING THE MODELS SHOW AN INCREASED RISK FOR  
LAKE ENHANCEMENT ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS  
DELTA T INCREASES TO 16C WITH A FAVORABLE TRAJECTORY IN PLACE IN  
THAT WINDOW OF TIME. STILL SOME CONCERN THOUGH WITH MESO MODELS  
TRENDING HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS SOUTH OF WI INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND  
WE ALSO THINK SOME DRY AIR AT THE OUTSET WILL CUT DOWN ON SOME  
INITIAL ACCUMS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK OVER THE 12Z DATA...COORD  
WITH WPC AND SURROUNDING OFFICES BEFORE CHANGING ANY AMOUNTS. THE  
NORTHWEST/SOUTHEAST GRADIENT STILL LOOKS GOOD...ESPECIALLY WITH  
THE ADDED LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL. NO CHANGE TO HEADLINES  
AT THIS TIME. CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN  
PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA.  
 

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The NAM still feels too north, and no other model is that sharp on the cutoff (lake effects should not reach this far inland)

The NAM is higher resolution than the GFS/Euro/GGEM. Not as high resolution as short term hi-res models. So, it's probably correct.

 

I'm not worried about the NAM here, its definitely having issues with the lake.

 

What issues with the lake?

RGEM looks like the NAM with less lake issues

What issues with the lake?

 

12Z GFS is nice for South MI then the 0Z, looks like more NAM like with no lake issues sans the immediate lake shore.

Again, what issues with the lake? This isn't sound meteorological reasoning, and these posts don't lend any credence to the discussion.

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Looking at the GFS soundings, KMDW is AOB freezing at 975mb for the entire event. The only layer above freezing is 1000mb. Furthermore, we're at < -10 at 700mb, at < -15 or so at 600mb. I think ratios will actually be pretty good, in that we could see 10:1 even right up to the lake. 

The bigger problem becomes melting, but the fact that this is a night time event is very helpful. I think this event may surprise myself and Alek, in that these 6" amounts could certainly verify.

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Looking at the GFS soundings, KMDW is AOB freezing at 975mb for the entire event. The only layer above freezing is 1000mb. Furthermore, we're at < -10 at 700mb, at < -15 or so at 600mb. I think ratios will actually be pretty good, in that we could see 10:1 even right up to the lake. 

The bigger problem becomes melting, but the fact that this is a night time event is very helpful. I think this event may surprise myself and Alek, in that these 6" amounts could certainly verify.

 

 

great post, mate

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I went with 3-6" for the metro area on fb except for south of a line from Adrian to the city. I just don't feel confident enough to say we get more than that, although I wouldn't be shocked if we did, if we do realize thunder snow tomorrow evening as the low moves by. I do suppose parts of Livingston and Oakland counties could do well with their higher elevations, Jongerland over to dmcland.

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