DAFF Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 I know of a sure fired way of wagons north for our region. I'll hook up the plows ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 17, 2015 Author Share Posted November 17, 2015 Wow, quite a model variance on track. Welcome to winter. Might turn into a Geos snow magnet winter. Split the GFS/GGEM and you've got an Alek bullseye. One of the bigger differences at this point seems to be what happens once it gets to Michigan. GGEM is an outlier so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 New Euro looks pretty sweet for northern IL. Continues to be a little slower than the GFS as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 looks like my first flakes of the season are going to happen i'd favor a dampening trend with the wave and ratios with these surface temps are bound to suck max stripe probably tops out <3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 looks like my first flakes of the season are going to happen i'd favor a dampening trend with the wave and ratios with these surface temps are bound to suck max stripe probably tops out <3" Euro has shown the opposite the last two runs. Sfc low and defo feature begin to really crank just east of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 looks like my first flakes of the season are going to happen i'd favor a dampening trend with the wave and ratios with these surface temps are bound to suck max stripe probably tops out <3" Ratios actually shouldn't be that bad, 850 temps are around -5 to -8 and it looks to come predominantly at night. If it is snowing hard enough it will eventually be snowing on snow and not the warm ground. We seem to always have this discussion every first storm, but it isn't like it is October, it's mid November, the snow will stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 17, 2015 Author Share Posted November 17, 2015 Record November snowstorm for Chicago is 12.0", back in 1895. Think that one might be hard to get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Joe Ps "it's happening" GIF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Joe Ps "it's happening" GIF? DAB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 17, 2015 Author Share Posted November 17, 2015 Just think, won't be long til it's SREF plume time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Does anyone think the -PNA may play a role in shifting this storm NW if the models pick up on it more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Does anyone think the -PNA may play a role in shifting this storm NW if the models pick up on it more? i don't see much room for a north trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 i don't see much room for a north trend Yeah I would agree as it is blocked in that direction, eventually it does turn NE but that won't be until it is past Lake Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 i don't see much room for a north trend Yeah I tend to like where we sit for this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 17, 2015 Author Share Posted November 17, 2015 Looking at the ECMWF 2m temperatures, the area near the Lake Michigan shoreline struggles to drop AOB freezing and hangs a bit above during the event, especially around Chicago. That scenario looks entirely plausible with lake temps being as warm as they are and onshore flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 I would assume YYZ is RA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 I would assume YYZ is RA?Yes, too warm there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Looking at the ECMWF 2m temperatures, the area near the Lake Michigan shoreline struggles to drop AOB freezing and hangs a bit above during the event, especially around Chicago. That scenario looks entirely plausible with lake temps being as warm as they are and onshore flow. How deep are the marginal temperatures in the Euro? GFS suggests between 925-900mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Here's a GFS map of the 925mb temps at the peak of the storm. Having the storm come in at night will help a lot. Colder air quickly moves in as the wind veers N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 17, 2015 Author Share Posted November 17, 2015 How deep are the marginal temperatures in the Euro? GFS suggests between 925-900mb I don't have access to that but my guess is that 925 mb would be below freezing and it's mainly an issue of how warm it gets beneath that. I would call this a thread the needle setup for the city proper. If the system gets stronger, then there'd probably be increased precip/ rates but then the onshore flow would be stronger. As currently modeled, the system really doesn't deepen a whole lot until it's moving past the area. All in all, assuming something like the current track/strength holds, I would expect accumulations in the city but not as much as farther inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 EURO has Alek right in the middle of a 6-8" band! Heaviest snow extends from I-39 in IL to the thumb of MI. Looks like the 4" line goes all the way down to Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 I don't have access to that but my guess is that 925 mb would be below freezing and it's mainly an issue of how warm it gets beneath that. I would call this a thread the needle setup for the city proper. If the system gets stronger, then there'd probably be increased precip/ rates but then the onshore flow would be stronger. As currently modeled, the system really doesn't deepen a whole lot until it's moving past the area. All in all, assuming something like the current track/strength holds, I would expect accumulations in the city but not as much as farther inland. Even though the 850mb low trended further north on the GFS run, the soundings indicate that the marginal BL temps are actually shallower. Seems AOB freezing at around 950mb. Will probably start as sleet and then transition to snow as heavier bands set up. http://68.226.77.253/text/GFS/GFS_KMDW.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 I could see this over performing, the eurowx data has a clear indication Lake Effect could occur and enhance it from the temp gradient. I also think a slight south trend could begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasmosnow Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 I always pick the model that is forecasting what I dont want to see. In this case for MSN that would be the EURO. Love the 1200z GFS bringing snow north but at this point latest Euro a serious mood dampener. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 GEM is not good for us either Chasmosnow. Let's hope the GFS pulls the coup with the northern solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Looking good. Just observing models and you guys at this point haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Looking at the ECMWF 2m temperatures, the area near the Lake Michigan shoreline struggles to drop AOB freezing and hangs a bit above during the event, especially around Chicago. That scenario looks entirely plausible with lake temps being as warm as they are and onshore flow. Yeah and I think that the Euro at 7" in the city is too high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Yeah and I think that the Euro at 7" in the city is too high I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that the 7" depiction, with BL, ground, and lake temps where they're at for the duration of this event, is really more of a 2-4" type event in and around the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that the 7" depiction, with BL, ground, and lake temps where they're at for the duration of this event, is really more of a 2-4" type event in and around the city. still being generous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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