A-L-E-K Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 quite a number of 1' big dogs in those plumes ORD could crush some records Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 ^those numbers are impressive as is but to have it as very first flakes....pretty sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 12Z NAM is a beautiful run for most. 12Z NAM is a beautiful run for most. Even up here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 ^those numbers are impressive as is but to have it as very first flakes....pretty sweet going to be fun having you are ORD Saturday, pressure is on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 12z NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 9z SREF plumes for ORD...lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Looks like parts of LOT are gaining back a little more pivot point snows which are also enhanced by the lake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 The NAM cutoff is scary. Even here...it's not that we would have ptype issues, it's cutoff in QPF all together. See what the GFS brings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 that's the point Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 NYE 2008 part 2 for SEMI Runs and hides now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Plumes for DKB with a 10.43" mean, and a range from ~3" to 17" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 the NAM in particular the 4km has been the most stingy IMBY (which makes sense given its low level thermal strengths) but this is the best run yet, with decent snow right to the lake front. Razor cutoff across SE MI as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 This goes to to 18z on the NAM for ORD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 This goes to to 18z on the NAM for ORDAbout a 200mb DGZ at 6z, not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 About a 200mb DGZ. Hopefully stacking nicely by then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 The NAM still feels too north, and no other model is that sharp on the cutoff (lake effects should not reach this far inland) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Heh... Still snowing in most of N. IL at this point Placement is actually pretty close to the 4km nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Heh... Still snowing in most of N. IL at this point Placement is actually pretty close to the 4km nam Classic and not surprised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 the NAM in particular the 4km has been the most stingy IMBY (which makes sense given its low level thermal strengths) but this is the best run yet, with decent snow right to the lake front. Razor cutoff across SE MI as well. On the NAM soundings, the warmest it gets at 950mb is -1.9. I really think the influence of the lake is being overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Hopefully stacking nicely by thenQuestion is how much omega is within it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Awesome 12z run for most. You can see the models trying to pick up on a location for the pivot point by the higher accums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 I'm not worried about the NAM here, its definitely having issues with the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 On the NAM soundings, the warmest it gets at 950mb is -1.9. I really think the influence of the lake is being overdone. I wrote a longer post to that effect on the last page pretty obvious at this point that the ARW/NMM/Ukie camp is going to be too far north and the fgen band looks primed for northern Illinois after dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 12z NAM... 10 Inches for Howell. Lock it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Question is how much omega is within it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Met from DVN just posted on his personal fb about he doesn't think there will be any problems having snow stick tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 MCD 1986... MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1986 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0900 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN IA...SERN SD...NERN NEB CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 201500Z - 202000Z SUMMARY...BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES LIKELY EXCEEDING 1 IN/HR SHOULD SHIFT AND EXPAND SOUTH AND EAST FROM SERN SD AND NWRN IA TOWARDS THE US-20/30 CORRIDORS INTO MID-AFTERNOON. DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADARS INDICATE A NARROW /AROUND/ 15-MILE WIDE BAND OF 30-DBZ REFLECTIVITIES FROM HUTCHINSON COUNTY SD TO CALHOUN COUNTY IA AS OF 1430Z. RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW HAS COMMENCED NEAR THIS BAND FROM KICR TO KCKP. ROBUST LOW-LEVEL WAA/850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS/ISENTROPIC ASCENT INFERRED BY DIAGNOSTICS AND DEPICTED IN PROGNOSTICS WILL SHIFT SEWD INTO THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE INITIALLY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER BENEATH 700 MB IN THE 12Z/OAX RAOB BECOMES SATURATED...AN EXPANDING/INTENSIFYING SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY TO AT LEAST THE US-20 AND US-30 CORRIDORS. THIS SCENARIO APPEARS WELL SUPPORTED GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY OF 12Z NAM-NEST/ESRL-HRRR WITH 00Z CAMS. BASED ON THE DEGREE OF LIFT THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR SHOULD BECOME COMMON WITH THE BAND BY ABOUT 21Z. ..GRAMS.. 11/20/2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Met from DVN just posted on his personal fb about he doesn't think there will be any problems having snow stick tonight honestly, i don't even know why people away from the lake are even worried about it right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 honestly, i don't even know why people away from the lake are even worried about it right now. Me either. I know I'm not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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