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November 20-21 Early Season Snowstorm


Hoosier

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the NAM in particular the 4km has been the most stingy IMBY (which makes sense given its low level thermal strengths) but this is the best run yet, with decent snow right to the lake front. Razor cutoff across SE MI as well.

On the NAM soundings, the warmest it gets at 950mb is -1.9. I really think the influence of the lake is being overdone.

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On the NAM soundings, the warmest it gets at 950mb is -1.9. I really think the influence of the lake is being overdone.

 

 

I wrote a longer post to that effect on the last page

 

pretty obvious at this point that the ARW/NMM/Ukie camp is going to be too far north and the fgen band looks primed for northern Illinois after dark.

 

image.png

 

image.png

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MCD 1986...

 

mcd1986.gif

 

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1986
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0900 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN IA...SERN SD...NERN NEB

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

   VALID 201500Z - 202000Z

   SUMMARY...BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES LIKELY EXCEEDING 1 IN/HR
   SHOULD SHIFT AND EXPAND SOUTH AND EAST FROM SERN SD AND NWRN IA
   TOWARDS THE US-20/30 CORRIDORS INTO MID-AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADARS INDICATE A NARROW /AROUND/ 15-MILE WIDE
   BAND OF 30-DBZ REFLECTIVITIES FROM HUTCHINSON COUNTY SD TO CALHOUN
   COUNTY IA AS OF 1430Z. RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM MODERATE
   TO HEAVY SNOW HAS COMMENCED NEAR THIS BAND FROM KICR TO KCKP. ROBUST
   LOW-LEVEL WAA/850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS/ISENTROPIC ASCENT INFERRED BY
   DIAGNOSTICS AND DEPICTED IN PROGNOSTICS WILL SHIFT SEWD INTO THIS
   AFTERNOON. AS THE INITIALLY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER BENEATH 700 MB IN
   THE 12Z/OAX RAOB BECOMES SATURATED...AN EXPANDING/INTENSIFYING SWATH
   OF HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY TO AT LEAST THE US-20 AND US-30 CORRIDORS.
   THIS SCENARIO APPEARS WELL SUPPORTED GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY OF 12Z
   NAM-NEST/ESRL-HRRR WITH 00Z CAMS. BASED ON THE DEGREE OF LIFT
   THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR
   SHOULD BECOME COMMON WITH THE BAND BY ABOUT 21Z.

   ..GRAMS.. 11/20/2015

 

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