Thundersnow12 Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Chuckin' Gotta say I've missed these images since last winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Lake enhancement signal showing up strong for Waukegan and Kenosha. Will be ripping during the day, which will be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 With its deeper solution, RGEM has 50-55 kt 925 mb winds on the back side. GFS not far behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 0Z GFS is much better for the Northern Indiana crew, IWX might jump on a WSW now for Northern portions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 I would think IWX and GRR would post watches tonight. First radar returns showing up south of the Black Hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 The GEM has shifted NW now, has a 1006mb low in E Michigan with the cold sector QPF a good bit NW of 12z. I'm guessing the Euro will follow suit with at least a slight NW, juicier shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Local tv station WILX is using last night's 0Z run for tonight's tv forecast, had 2-4 inches in Lansing, big mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Local tv station WILX is using last night's 0Z run for tonight's tv forecast, had 2-4 inches in Lansing, big mistake. Maybe not far off. Our local offices (IWX, GRR and DTX) will likely hoist watches up tonight like Geos mentioned. Everyone will be well informed, and most around here are already aware. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman1952 Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 We were extremely cold last winter but didn't get much snow at all. It may be El Nino winter coming, but its starting out exciting so far. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Nice LES signal for South MI on the GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Tonight at the office Gino looked up the November 2004 pre Thanksgiving snowstorm. ORD had 4.2" of snow for the event and 0.88" of liquid equivalent. Surface temperatures were pretty similar to what we're predicting for this event and there were several 1/2 1/4 mile obs. Even if the big qpf amounts verify, wonder how much of a role the SLR will play in accums. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Milwaukee and Madison folks are probably pulling their hair out with all these solutions today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 Trend in most of the 00z runs seems to be a little stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Milwaukee and Madison folks are probably pulling their hair out with all these solutions today! We're not necessarily riding down easy street on our end either... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 Tonight at the office Gino looked up the November 2004 pre Thanksgiving snowstorm. ORD had 4.2" of snow for the event and 0.88" of liquid equivalent. Surface temperatures were pretty similar to what we're predicting for this event and there were several 1/2 1/4 mile obs. Even if the big qpf amounts verify, wonder how much of a role the SLR will play in accums. Sent from my SM-G900V Every degree will be crucial...heck, every half of a degree. One thing I like about this one compared to 2004 is the evening onset. Can't hurt anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 We're not necessarily riding down easy street on our end either... Yes, you also! --- Was just looking at the 11/24/04 event. Difference with that one was it started during the middle of the day. Winds had been moving off the lake from the NNE at 15-20 mph all day too (gusts to 30mph). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 Hey RC, Midway had 1.9" on 0.75" liquid in that November 2004 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Still uncertainty with surface temps in Detroit. Friday night lows could be key as recovery will be limited. If you wake up Saturday morning to 32 degrees...prepare for rain all afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Hey RC, Midway had 1.9" on 0.75" liquid in that November 2004 storm. Damn. Was that as measured by the MDW COOP? We went less than 3" downtown, but still over 5" in our official forecast for MDW and 6.4" at ORD. I think the city proper holds some pretty big bust potential. Also, regarding time of day, a lot of the heavier rates happening overnight and early Saturday certainly won't hurt. But sun angle is low/equivalent to late January this time of year, so maybe more of a muted impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Hopefully the air mass overhead will be colder this time around then on 11/24/04. At least we're not having a soaking rain then a transition to snow. Going into a snow event with wet ground usually does hold back accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Hopefully the air mass overhead will be colder this time around then on 11/24/04. At least we're not having a soaking rain then a transition to snow. Going into a snow event with wet ground usually does hold back accumulations. That and rain to snow events rarely seen to work out well for snow weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 00Z NAM was a nice run for YKF (Kitchener-Waterloo). 0.6" QPF, all snow but temps running close to 32F most of the event. Would be a sloppy 3-4" snow. Good DGZ/Omega interaction though, so we could get some good rates, just a lot of melting as well. Nice little Saturday night system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 WPC so far perfers the 0Z GFS ...DEEPENING SURFACE LOW/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE RATHER SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE EVOLUTION OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EJECTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRI AND THEN MOVING THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH SAT. THE 12Z UKMET IS OVERALL THE MOST AMPLIFIED SOLUTION WITH THIS SYSTEM AND FARTHEST TO THE LEFT WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACK AND ESPECIALLY AS IT LIFTS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE 12Z ECMWF JUST LIKE ITS 00Z RUN IS FARTHEST SOUTH AND IS CURRENTLY THE WEAKEST SOLUTION. THE 00Z NAM/00Z GFS AND 12Z CMC SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE...BUT THE 00Z GFS AS WITH PREVIOUS RUNS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN BEING MORE AMPLIFIED AND IS ONLY A TAD WEAKER AND A BIT SOUTHEAST OF THE UKMET TRACK. THE 00Z NAM HAS TRENDED STRONGER AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z CMC WITH A TRACK THAT IS IN BETWEEN THE 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS. THE 18Z GEFS MEAN IS GENERALLY VERY SUPPORTIVE OF THE 00Z GFS...AND THE 12Z ECENS MEAN IS ACTUALLY SOMEWHAT NORTH OF THE 12Z ECMWF TRACK AS THE LOW CENTER MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WILL PREFER TO GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH AT THIS POINT WOULD BE A SOLUTION CLOSE TO THE 00Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 Damn. Was that as measured by the MDW COOP? We went less than 3" downtown, but still over 5" in our official forecast for MDW and 6.4" at ORD. I think the city proper holds some pretty big bust potential. Also, regarding time of day, a lot of the heavier rates happening overnight and early Saturday certainly won't hurt. But sun angle is low/equivalent to late January this time of year, so maybe more of a muted impact. Yeah it was the COOP. I don't envy you guys at all in trying to figure out just how pronounced the marine influence will be. There's reason to think it won't be as big of a limiting factor/won't extend as far inland as 2004 (namely that winds are weaker this time). The thermal profiles aloft with this system look fairly similar to 2004 but I'd say this system may be a little cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Euro with 7-9" right along I-80 in IA and into IL along I-88 into Chicago. Improvement aloft compared to the 0z run but still weakened the snow as it moved into IL with it starting off wetter at first across IA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Pretty decent numbers with the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Euro is still having QPF issues it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 If we don't get a curveball, I think that eventually LOT will cover the remainder of the cwa with an advisory. Amounts in the southern tier could be iffy but it's the first snow of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Spread the wealth, even across the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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