A-L-E-K Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 dat plume Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Juicy LE signal on the RGEM....complete with a plume from north of Milwaukee too Rockford on the tail end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 dat plume Juicy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 RGEM is nearly best case scenario...wide area of dumpage even with the northwest track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 dat plume nothing wrong with a west side Joique in November, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Wow, what a LES plume signature!^ Grid up to 6-10" now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 I'd bet on a WSW quickly followed by a WWA for 3-5"... IF the juicy solutions come into frutition possibly a low end warning. Considering it is the first storm of the year I think they will do WSW especially if the models lock in on this tonight, and then transition to a warning if it continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Skilling has 5" at ORD and said that's over done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 999 mb north of Detroit at 48 hours. Been running on the northern end of guidance. Been north of the global every run. It tends to be a bit overzealous in these situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Skilling has 1-4 in the city, 4-8 NW of the city, and around an inch south burbs and thinks those numbers might be overdone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 Been north of the global every run. It tends to be a bit overzealous in these situations. Agree, though if we get it within 24 hours and it's still this amped, then I think that would be different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Because it's tradition.....we're into the 24hr RAP range now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 Skilling has 1-4 in the city, 4-8 NW of the city, and around an inch south burbs and thinks those numbers might be overdone Inch in the south burbs...that might be in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 I think 5" at ORD is very reasonable. RPM riding the NW camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Skilling has 5" at ORD and said that's over done It was 1.2 " at 5pm. He's gun shy. Can't blame him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 GFS looks more generous with the cold side defo band through IL thru H39 looks good Dubuque to Chicago to Detroit QPF wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 Surface low a bit deeper on the 00z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Thinking my 4-6" call may be a little light. Looking more and more like 6"+ now. 4km NAM has near zero, and even a few sub zero readings in southern WI/northern IL Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 GFS right on the same track as the 18z but a touch stronger with the surface pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 The RGEM snow map was posted a while back but here's the qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 It's a subtle difference but it's why the GFS was a stronger and better run overall. Sharper and more neutral trof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 GFS this time around has the bullseye pretty much over me now, instead of NW 20 miles. Detroit west and southwest side looking better. 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 just going by the numbers of criteria...GFS and RGEM actually show a few hours of near blizzard conditions in western portions of LOT...fwiw as I know the snow will be quite wet in nature... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Bigger flakes = lower visibility, even if the wind isn't that strong. The few trees that do have leaves, will be caked up with snow no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Verbatim, the 00z GFS is still a ttick too warm for Detroit proper. Mixing line sits literally right over the city (like on the RGEM). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 just going by the numbers of criteria...GFS and RGEM actually show a few hours of near blizzard conditions in western portions of LOT...fwiw as I know the snow will be quite wet in nature... Mentioned that yesterday as something to watch. The light winds early on should allow very efficient build up on the trees, so a period of strong winds could cause some issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Verbatim, the 00z GFS is still a ttick too warm for Detroit proper. Mixing line sits literally right over the city (like on the RGEM). It's so hard to tell. That's based off tropical tidbits accums maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 It's so hard to tell. That's based off tropical tidbits accums maps. I'm looking at the 925mb 0*C line actually... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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