Gilbertfly Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 NAM maybe a hair faster....maybe a little bit more QPF than 18Z... all in all looks pretty similar through H22 into IA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 I know someone whos garage got stuck on 2/20 from the thundersnow, that was wild. Wow. Crazy. I remember how shocked everyone was as it lit up the sky and boomed extremely loud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 i dont either actually. Feb 20, 2011 had INSANE thundersnow but it was heavy snow from the get go. That was probably the best thundersnow I've ever witnessed. I was outside shoveling and could see the streaks of lightning above me. Wasn't that the storm that was supposed to be an ice storm but never switched over? As far as November snow events go, I can't recall a decent one that happened in my lifetime. If we lucked out and got more than a few inches, that would be pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 That was probably the best thundersnow I've ever witnessed. I was outside shoveling and could see the streaks of lightning above me. Wasn't that the storm that was supposed to be an ice storm but never switched over? As far as November snow events go, I can't recall a decent one that happened in my lifetime. If we lucked out and got more than a few inches, that would be pretty impressive. Yup. Was supposed to be an ice storm. Got 10" of snow. Yet Jackson got ice. A surprise 75th birthday for my grandpa that night at a restaurant overlooking a golf course. Snowstorm raged outside then lightning lit the course up to look bright pink and the whole party literally gasped. The biggest single Nov event I remember is 3-4" in Nov 2005. Officially at Detroit... Last 4"+ Nov snowfall: Nov 11, 1984 Last 5"+ Nov snowfall: Nov 26, 1977 Last 6"+ Nov snowfall: Nov 2/3, 1966 Last 7"+ Nov snowfall: Nov 15/16, 1932: (At 9.0", this is Detroits only 7"+ Nov snowstorm on record). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 NAM looking wetter with the main defo band through N IL through H36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 15Z Plumes...QPF mean... JOT .42 ORD .54 DKB .63 SQI .72 UGN .75 21Z Plumes...QPF mean... JOT .68 ORD .88 DKB .95 SQI .99 UGN 1.11 Thanks for posting these numbers. Keep on forgetting to check the SREF. Kind of smells and feels like snow tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Definitely an amped up NAM run in the QPF dept. Looks very similar to 12z run of the GEM. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Overall looks like more QPF in the cold air, the trof is sharper, touch more neutral tilt by 15z Saturday and the sfc low is a tad stronger moving through Indiana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 4km NAM is stronger/further NW compared to the NAM and wetter. Also with a very impressive lake enhancement signal by 18z Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 The NAM is showing a signal of dynamic cooling as the deformation band slides through here, that certainly looks plausible given the thermodynamic background we will have preceding and during the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Yeah this NAM run hammers Detroit, .5-.7 liquid equivalent, it also looks to be all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 Some NAM 950 mb temperature maps. Generally, 950 mb temps AOB 0C is a decent demarcation of the rain/snow line, though you can get snow with 950's that are a little above 0C (especially if it's less than 1C). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 The NAM is showing a signal of dynamic cooling as the deformation band slides through here, that certainly looks plausible given the thermodynamic background we will have preceding and during the storm Verbatim, the NAM's all snow here (like the 18z run). In fact, Detroit proper's in the bullseye this time around. And actually, I would even be concerned about the potential of convective snows if the NAM were to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 The amount of liquid precip the NAM has translates into about 6 inches on the snow map. DESCENT, WE'LL ALL TAKE IT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 ILX's latest update--even though they haven't issued any headlines yet. Although I wouldn't be surprised tomorrow morning if their counties NW of the IL River, or perhaps roughly along/north of a Macomb-Bloomington line (following the southern part of DVN's WWA and taking it east across the northernmost ILX CWA), go under a WWA for late tomorrow night into Saturday morning: http://www.weather.gov/ilx/AccumulatingSnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 NAM looked quite nice for Detroit...perhaps LOT area lost a little by losing the pivot point action...4k does have a very nice LE signal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Verbatim, the NAM's all snow here (like the 18z run). In fact, Detroit proper's in the bullseye this time around. And actually, I would even be concerned about the potential of convective snows if the NAM were to verify. If you look at the 4km NAM I would say there is a decent potential of convective snows and it is more juiced up than the 12km. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 If you look at the 4km NAM I would say there is a decent potential of convective snows and it is more juiced up than the 12km. Any thoughts on the morning products? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Any thoughts on the morning products? I'd bet on a WSW quickly followed by a WWA for 3-5"... IF the juicy solutions come into frutition possibly a low end warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 If you look at the 4km NAM I would say there is a decent potential of convective snows and it is more juiced up than the 12km. 4km NAM is actually a little warmer than the 12km NAM. The period between 18z and 21z is especially marginal, as the 925mb 0*C creeps NW to about Lake St. Clair / Detroit River. But I would think dynamic cooling nips that in the bud quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 Do what you will with these Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Just to follow up since I have been keeping track of it...after hitting 55 degrees yesterday...soil temp is already down to 37 at St. Charles as of 9:00 ... So with some doubts on ground temps lingering out there by some...temps should be adequate to not cut into totals much if at all if anyone still has any grave concerns in that regard (soil temps not pavement) fwiw...and i'll stop talking about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 00z RGEM is stronger / warmer / NW, from what I hear. EDIT: The low tracks from the IL/IA/MO borders to NW Indiana to the thumb of MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 00z RGEM is stronger / warmer / NW, from what I hear. Sub 1000 cuts into Michigan as the SLP is hitting nw Ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 00z NAM DTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 00z RGEM is stronger / warmer / NW, from what I hear. 999 mb north of Detroit at 48 hours. Been running on the northern end of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Sub 1000 cuts into Michigan as the SLP is hitting nw Ohio Definitely puts a pause on whatever buzz was starting to come on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 ^Maybe we're not going to tighten the envelope any further with this cycle. heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Definitely puts a pause on whatever buzz was starting to come on. does have 850 0degree line quite a bit SE of Detroit though...will have to see what it translate to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 999 mb north of Detroit at 48 hours. Been running on the northern end of guidance. The strange thing about it is most of MI still makes out ok. It's just the Monroe - Detroit - Port Huron corridor that has issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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