RyanDe680 Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Gotta be overdone. I can't buy into those totals in November. Even if anything remotely close to that falls, I imagine snowcover following the storm will pale in comparison. Still think much of the first half of the storm will be lost to melting/mixing/warmth/sloppy sludge. I second this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Been a real fun month so far. Two tornadoes less than 20 miles away last week. This week we're tracking not only the first flakes, and not only the first snow accums, but what could be a warning criteria snow event lol. I'm gonna go with 4-6" with isolated higher amounts for here/QCA for my first call. Some models indicate we may have rain mixing in for awhile tomorrow evening before the intense lift from the storm cools the column sufficiently. Once it changes over though it will rip all night into early Sat. Not worried about the ground temps at all. Ratios will be rather meager though, as you'd expect with marginal temps relative to snow event. I think areas north of highway 30 have an excellent shot at warning criteria snows of 6-8" with isolated higher amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 For anyone enjoying the southern trend..... plows and salters still not hooked up. For extreme SE Michigan I expect a slop fest, perhaps a marginal squeegee plowing event. While the issue will be not the main snow but rather the evening freeze of the leftovers on the ground.Do you plow Windsor or detroit areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 19, 2015 Author Share Posted November 19, 2015 Officially, Chicago hasn't had a 6" snowstorm in November since November 26-28, 1978, when 6.0" fell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 For the Michigan folks, what I am noticing is that the models are developing some semblance of a trowal as the low wraps NE. That would explain the blow up in 6hr QPF from 18z to 00z on Saturday. It's another thing to keep an eye on (that is for possible overachievement), especially if the profiles trend a bit cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 DTX increased my totals from this morning, was around 2", now 4-5" Friday Night Snow likely, mainly after 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Saturday Snow. High near 36. Calm wind becoming north northeast 5 to 7 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of around 4 inches. Saturday Night Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible. They're calling for 2-4" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 IWX snow map raised me from 3-5 to 4-6, also in the PaC. Seems they liked the 18Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 For the Michigan folks, what I am noticing is that the models are developing some semblance of a trowal as the low wraps NE. That would explain the blow up in 6hr QPF from 18z to 00z on Saturday. It's another thing to keep an eye on (that is for possible overachievement), especially if the profiles trend a bit cooler. We had a storm that did something like that 2 years ago as the low passed by, Josh would probably remember which one. The storm started with about 8 hours of underachieving and then the last 6 hours was overachieving with some reports of thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n1vek Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 We had a storm that did something like that 2 years ago as the low passed by, Josh would probably remember which one. The storm started with about 8 hours of underachieving and then the last 6 hours was overachieving with some reports of thunder. I remember that as well. People were calling bust when there was still 8 hours of precipitation to go with the trowel feature to roll through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 There's definitely a chill in the air. I'm anxious to see how warm/sunny it gets tomorrow before the clouds set in. I have a feeling there will be less lake influence than LOT anticipates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 I'm thinking 5-6" for Cedar Rapids. With the models gradually dropping the qpf today I'm surprised (like Justin) DMX/DVN are going as high as they are. I certainly won't complain if we do get 8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 There's definitely a chill in the air. I'm anxious to see how warm/sunny it gets tomorrow before the clouds set in. I have a feeling there will be less lake influence than LOT anticipates. it's easy to forget about the marine influence with these ripping winds out of the west. i think your first call (which now lines up nicely with LOT) looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Do you plow Windsor or detroit areas? All in Windsor within a 10 mile radius of down town. During a big storm you should come on over for a run in the trucks and perhaps play with a skid steer for a few hours. You will be hooked from that moment on. Snow should all own a plow truck.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Below is something interesting I spotted that's now on coolwx.com. The images posted are for the 18z NAM, but I'm sure the same images are available for the GFS as well... KDTW: KORD KGRR KMSN KDSM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasmosnow Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Yeah. 15Z means of 1.2" qpf in Madison, 12" of snow. just outrageous Sometimes good things happen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 All in Windsor within a 10 mile radius of down town. During a big storm you should come on over for a run in the trucks and perhaps play with a skid steer for a few hours. You will be hooked from that moment on. Snow should all own a plow truck.... The real feel is doing it continuous for 48 hours consecutive while living on Big Macs, coffee and developing a severe case of swamp ass. Takes the romantiscm out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Below is something interesting I spotted that's now on coolwx.com. The images posted are for the 18z NAM, but I'm sure the same images are available for the GFS as well... KDTW: KORD KGRR KMSN KDSM This is good, omega intersecting the DGZ. Might be better ratios than expected for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasmosnow Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 2100z SREF has plus 1 inch QPF are over most of south east Wisconsin. Smaller area and more southeast than 1500z run. Encouraging but still hard to belive MSN could get close to a foot of snow at this time of year.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 15Z Plumes...QPF mean... JOT .42 ORD .54 DKB .63 SQI .72 UGN .75 21Z Plumes...QPF mean... JOT .68 ORD .88 DKB .95 SQI .99 UGN 1.11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Wow. Talk about an uptick. That's impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Wow. Talk about an uptick. That's impressive No kidding. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Wow. Talk about an uptick. That's impressive No kidding. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 Wow. Talk about an uptick. That's impressive I wonder if it's because the mean shifted south. Don't think the maps have come out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 I wonder if it's because the mean shifted south. Don't think the maps have come out yet. I'd have to imagine, the plumes here have ticked up as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 We had a storm that did something like that 2 years ago as the low passed by, Josh would probably remember which one. The storm started with about 8 hours of underachieving and then the last 6 hours was overachieving with some reports of thunder. Im a bit ashamed to say I had had to look at f6 data to jog my memory . But I got it. It was Feb 5, 2014. In a winter of everything going right, it appeared we would finally get a snow that underperformed. It snowed all night and only added up to a few inches, then bam out of nowhere we got slammed in the morning. It ended up being an 8" snowfall...but imby it took 12 hours to deliver the first 2" and 4 hours to deliver the last 6". By early afternoon the sun was peaking out. Depth was 20". What a winter that was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 I think this is the cycle to watch to narrow down the range of solutions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Im a bit ashamed to say I had had to look at f6 data to jog my memory . But I got it. It was Feb 5, 2014. In a winter of everything going right, it appeared we would finally get a snow that underperformed. It snowed all night and only added up to a few inches, then bam out of nowhere we got slammed in the morning. It ended up being an 8" snowfall...but imby it took 12 hours to deliver the first 2" and 4 hours to deliver the last 6". By early afternoon the sun was peaking out. Depth was 20". What a winter that was. This was the first storm that came to mind after seeing Stebo's post, but I don't recall thundersnow with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 This was the first storm that came to mind after seeing Stebo's post, but I don't recall thundersnow with this one. i dont either actually. Feb 20, 2011 had INSANE thundersnow but it was heavy snow from the get go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 i dont either actually. Feb 20, 2011 had INSANE thundersnow but it was heavy snow from the get go. And besides, I also recall 2/5/14 being purely deformation snow. This upcoming system actually has a defined tongue of warm air attempting to wrap around the backside of the low, as the trough takes on a negative tilt and the system tries to close off (thus a trowal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 i dont either actually. Feb 20, 2011 had INSANE thundersnow but it was heavy snow from the get go. I know someone whos garage got stuck on 2/20 from the thundersnow, that was wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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