Natester Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 TREES THAT HAVE NOT LOST THEIR LEAVES MAY BE DAMAGED BY THE HEAVY WET SNOW. There are a few trees in my neighborhood that still have all of their leaves. Could be some spotty power outages. Asides from that, 90% of the trees are bare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 I'm more pessimistic on this one... I'm surprised by NWS DVN going with the amounts they are. I will be interested to see the evening runs to see if the weakening continues... The deep cyclone to the North might be causing a bit more confluence than was earlier thought and might make it take longer to saturate to the surface, lots of little things that can add up. Coincidentally, hello again everyone :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Sounds like once LOT has certainty, they'll go with the warning... more likely tomorrow morning/afternoon I would assume. Still think that some of these totals going around are too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 19, 2015 Author Share Posted November 19, 2015 I'm more pessimistic on this one... I'm surprised by NWS DVN going with the amounts they are. I will be interested to see the evening runs to see if the weakening continues... The deep cyclone to the North might be causing a bit more confluence than was earlier thought and might make it take longer to saturate to the surface, lots of little things that can add up. Coincidentally, hello again everyone :-) Welcome back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Justin slays Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Gfs just caved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 My lord, gone to long, way to long a story, but it's fun to be back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 18Z GFS coming in juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 GFS rocking the LE...inch plus QPF I88 north in LOT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 GFS further south, slightly weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 RGEM really loving the LE...big 'ol plume running down the shoreline in wisco Looking forward to seeing some enhanced totals from lake moisture. Hopefully the southward bleeding is done though with the EURO and NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 18Z GFS "shares the love" in Michigan, Jackpot is IL/WI Border region. (expected ratios during storm is 8:1 or 9:1 so adjust down for that) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 My lord, gone to long, way to long a story, but it's fun to be back. Good to see ya back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Further south, but bullseye even closer now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Looking like cold rain with some wet flurries mixed in at times for here.Welcome to the board. It's nice to see another poster from the Toronto area. I haven't posted that much lately but I have been reading the board on a daily basis. As for this event, it looks like a mixture of rain showers and flurries, but if the model trends of a weaker SE solution continue, we may get some wet snow. But as of now, that's a long shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 19, 2015 Author Share Posted November 19, 2015 Further south, but bullseye even closer now. Looking good Geos. IF somebody is going to bag double digits out of this, I'd bet on it being somewhere near you (maybe just inland). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 My lord, gone to long, way to long a story, but it's fun to be back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Looking good Geos. IF somebody is going to bag double digits out of this, I'd bet on it being somewhere near you (maybe just inland). Obviously Geos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 19, 2015 Author Share Posted November 19, 2015 Was a little surprised to see LOT has 4-7" in my p & c. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Quad Cities out with WS Warning now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Updated... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 19, 2015 Author Share Posted November 19, 2015 Quad Cities out with WS Warning now swingin URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 332 PM CST THU NOV 19 2015 ..HEAVY SNOW FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING .A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOW OF THE SEASON TO THE AREA BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND. A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW LOOKS VERY POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. SOUTH OF THE WARNING AREA...2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW LOOKS POSSIBLE. THESE SNOW AMOUNTS COULD FLUCTUATE UP OR DOWN DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 For anyone enjoying the southern trend..... plows and salters still not hooked up. For extreme SE Michigan I expect a slop fest, perhaps a marginal squeegee plowing event. While the issue will be not the main snow but rather the evening freeze of the leftovers on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Updated... Gotta be overdone. I can't buy into those totals in November. Even if anything remotely close to that falls, I imagine snowcover following the storm will pale in comparison. Still think much of the first half of the storm will be lost to melting/mixing/warmth/sloppy sludge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Still think much of the first half of the storm will be lost to melting/mixing/warmth/sloppy sludge.Maybe in Pontiac and Peoria, but I think we are primed for a early season big dog.7.7" forecasted in my hourly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 19, 2015 Author Share Posted November 19, 2015 Don't remember the October 1989 storm, and I can't remember seeing more than a few inches in November, so this has some chance of being my biggest November snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Gotta be overdone. I can't buy into those totals in November. Even if anything remotely close to that falls, I imagine snowcover following the storm will pale in comparison. Still think much of the first half of the storm will be lost to melting/mixing/warmth/sloppy sludge. Solar insolation is equal to January 21st. The only reason the cold pool is small is thermal inertia from the oceans Were pretty far from the ocean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Everyone enjoy! So jealous. Solid event setting up for ya'all. Not sure about stats, but can't imagine nothing good comes out of significant November snowfalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 19, 2015 Author Share Posted November 19, 2015 Everyone enjoy! So jealous. Solid event setting up for ya'all. Not sure about stats, but can't imagine nothing good comes out of significant November snowfalls. I actually ran the stats for Chicago the other day, and significant November snow does tilt the odds in favor of a snowier than average season. Granted, this might not be the case in other places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Looking good Geos. IF somebody is going to bag double digits out of this, I'd bet on it being somewhere near you (maybe just inland). Yeah like Tuanis. He's a bit further inland. I am 4.5 miles inland. Just beyond the 12" range on the map above^. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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