A-L-E-K Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 15Z Plumes...QPF mean... JOT .42 ORD .54 DKB .63 SQI .72 UGN .75 SREF members are laughably amped/NW at this point. Check out madison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Yikes. South and weaker by 39hrs. still manages .75" of slurpy IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 SREF members are laughably amped/NW at this point. Check out Madison was just looking at that...pretty silly set....even a few members with zero QPF at various spots in the local here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 SREF members are laughably amped/NW at this point. Check out madison Yeah. 15Z means of 1.2" qpf in Madison, 12" of snow. just outrageous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 SREF members are laughably amped/NW at this point. Check out Madison The thing is, even if they meet in the middle (SREF vs Euro/NAM and company) that'd still be a good storm for some of the northern holdouts. It's not out of the question Euro and NAM are too far in the other direction. Certainly not thinking the UKIE or SREFs will be pulling a coup however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 4-8" in the LOT WSW area, 2-4" downtown. Solid call, pretty much what I've been thinking this whole time. I think if the trend holds steady, downtown could see 3-5, but I will stick with my 2-4 call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 The thing is, even if they meet in the middle (SREF vs Euro/NAM and company) that'd still be a good storm for some of the northern holdouts. It's not out of the question Euro and NAM are too far in the other direction. Certainly not thinking the UKIE or SREFs will be pulling a coup however. i think it's much more likely the Euro/NAM/GEFS/GGEM continue to trend towards a weaker/south solution than towards the UKMET and hi-res guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 The nam has trended way South at h5 since 00z last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 South Trend = Good Call. First Call for me: 2-4, If the south trend continues may grow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 19, 2015 Author Share Posted November 19, 2015 The nam has trended way South at h5 since 00z last night Looks like 50 miles or so to me. Don't know if I'd call that way south in the context of being this far out. If we were like 6 hours to onset then yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Just a quick Q for you all, have you used the HopWRF before? If so, is it reliable? http://hopwrf.info/HopWRF-TS-4km/index_ts4.html Asking for obvious reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 19, 2015 Author Share Posted November 19, 2015 18z 4 km NAM is more amped than the lower res counterpart. Still a bit too far out though for me to take it more seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 4K NAM is more amped, would add probably an inch or two onto all totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Crazy to see 12 inch probs in November in northern IL / southern wisco via the latest WPC prob maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 19, 2015 Author Share Posted November 19, 2015 Crazy to see 12 inch probs in November in northern IL / southern wisco via the latest WPC prob maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 IWX's new AFD is great, highlights the uncertainty, waiting to see 18Z/0Z Packages before any headlines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 18z 4 km NAM is more amped than the lower res counterpart. Still a bit too far out though for me to take it more seriously. nice weenie band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 19, 2015 Author Share Posted November 19, 2015 Fun fact...the last time LOT issued a Winter Storm Watch in November was in November 2007, but it was for a storm that hit on December 1. So the last time they issued a watch that took effect in November was on November 29, 2006 (took effect on November 30, 2006). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Fun fact...the last time LOT issued a Winter Storm Watch in November was in November 2007, but it was for a storm that hit on December 1. So the last time they issued a watch that took effect in November was on November 29, 2006 (took effect on November 30, 2006). I remember the December 1, 2007 storm. Got 3-4 inches of sleet before it switched over to pure freezing rain for the last 90 minutes of the event. Glad that this storm did not turn out to be a repeat of February 24, 2007 (I do not want to go through an ice storm like that again in my life!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 IWX's new AFD is great, highlights the uncertainty, waiting to see 18Z/0Z Packages before any headlines. Nice to hear. Up the road from you a bit, I see the latest from WPC has that 8+ line knocking on my door. Here's to those southern solutions pulling through for us over in SMI - Good Luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 DVN snow map. Officially jealous of those getting this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 19, 2015 Author Share Posted November 19, 2015 18z RGEM is fairly deep/north at 18z Saturday. It does that sometimes though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Nice to hear. Up the road from you a bit, I see the latest from WPC has that 8+ line knocking on my door. Here's to those southern solutions pulling through for us over in SMI - Good Luck! Just gotta hope the South trend continues, and we get in the heavier. All we can do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 DVN snow map. Officially jealous of those getting this! This doesn't agree with LOT's snowfall map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 18z RGEM is fairly deep/north at 18z Saturday. It does that sometimes though. RGEM really loving the LE...big 'ol plume running down the shoreline in wisco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flyfisher7 Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 DTX increased my totals from this morning, was around 2", now 4-5" Friday Night Snow likely, mainly after 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Saturday Snow. High near 36. Calm wind becoming north northeast 5 to 7 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of around 4 inches. Saturday Night Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n1vek Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 DTX increased my totals from this morning, was around 2", now 4-5" Friday Night Snow likely, mainly after 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Saturday Snow. High near 36. Calm wind becoming north northeast 5 to 7 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of around 4 inches. Saturday Night Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible. Saw that as well. Upped my totals a touch in Royal Oak. Like the trends. Would Love to be sitting about 500' higher for this storm. [My gut says] The line from Dexter-Brighton-Pontiac-Lake Orion should do disproportionately well in this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 19, 2015 Author Share Posted November 19, 2015 RGEM really loving the LE...big 'ol plume running down the shoreline in wisco If it were later in the season, the lakeshore would be a shoe-in for higher totals than farther inland. The setup does look pretty decent, probably becoming more transitory with time after focusing on IL/WI area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 LOT... THE WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE LASALLE...KENDALL...DUPAGE...AND PORTIONS OF COOK COUNTY AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE. IT IS BECOMING CLEARER THAT THE FIRST ACCUMULATION OF THE SEASON WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND SOME OR ALL OF THE WATCH AREA GETTING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW. A CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH THIS QUICK MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEM AS 1.) THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO HAVE KEY DIFFERENCES IN EVOLUTION WITHIN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND 2.) THE BATTLE WITH SNOWFALL VERSUS WARM GROUND/PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES...AS FOR EXAMPLE THE CITY OF CHICAGO RELAYED PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 40S TO THE MID 60S. A KEY TO NUMBER 1 IS JUST HOW STRONG THE SYSTEM IS AS IT MOVES ACROSS AND IF IT IS STRENGTHENING...THUS PIVOTING ITS STRONGEST FORCING AND BRINGING A LONGER SNOWFALL DURATION. SEVERAL COMPUTER MODELS SHOW THIS...A MAJORITY OF WHICH INCHED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS...TARGETING MORE THE I-88 TO POSSIBLY I-80 CORRIDOR FOR THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. HAVE LEANED THIS ROUTE SOMEONE...WHICH IS THE PRIMARY REASON FOR EXPANDING THE WATCH...HOWEVER THE UNCERTAINTY PREVENTS UPGRADING PARTS OF IT TO A WARNING. AS THE PRECIPITATION LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING TRANSITIONS TO A WET SNOW...IT SHOULD BE LIGHT AT FIRST...MAINLY BECAUSE IT JUST LOOKS LIKE GRADUAL MOIST ASCENT. LOW SNOW-TO- LIQUID RATIOS REALLY SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TOO THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AND DO NOT EXPECT WEATHER IMPACTS TO THE COMMUTE /BESIDES TYPICAL WET ROADWAYS/. AS A STRONG UPPER JET OVERSPREADS THIS SYSTEM BY LATER FRIDAY EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT...MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ESPECIALLY DEEPER FORCING IMPROVE. HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE NAM...THAT IS AVAILABLE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND TEMPORARY FRONTOGENETIC BANDING OF SNOW FROM WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THE STRONGER FORCING WILL HELP TO OVERCOME THE WARMER GROUND...BUT AT WHAT RATE IS DIFFICULT TO SAY. DO ENVISION SNOW GRADUALLY SPREADING FURTHER SOUTH TOO THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE COLUMN COOLS AND FORCING INCREASES. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD STILL STRUGGLE IN DOWNTOWN CHICAGO AND IMMEDIATE LAKE ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTHEAST ILLINOIS WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW...SO NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH IN THESE AREAS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. AS THE PRIMARY UPPER PV ANOMALY TRANSLATE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY...WOULD EXPECT THE FORCING TO CONTINUE TO BE STRONG WITH MODERATE TO HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES SHIFTING EAST OVER A LARGER PART OF THE AREA...BEFORE SHIFTING AWAY FROM WEST-TO-EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SNOW RATIOS SHOULD SLOWLY START TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AS WINDS TURN NORTHERLY. THE OVERLAP THOUGH IN NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND STRONG FORCING DOES NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY LONG TO TAP THESE HIGHER RATIOS. SO DO BELIEVE SEVERAL OF THE MODELS ARE JUST TOO HIGH ON THE RATIOS...BUT NONETHELESS JUST FROM DURATION THE SNOWFALL FORECASTS STILL COME OUT 5 PLUS INCHES FOR MOST OF THE WATCH AREA. ACCUMULATION ON PAVEMENT MAY LAG GRASSY SURFACES BY A DECENT AMOUNT OF TIME...AND THAT IS A REAL CHALLENGE THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE ASSESSED. AGAIN WHILE WINDS WILL INCREASE AM NOT EXPECTING BLOWING SNOW TO BE A HUGE DEAL...THOUGH SOME PATCHY AREAS COULD DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 DTX increased my totals from this morning, was around 2", now 4-5" Friday Night Snow likely, mainly after 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Saturday Snow. High near 36. Calm wind becoming north northeast 5 to 7 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of around 4 inches. Saturday Night Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible. IWX followed suit for the Michigan/Extreme Northern Indiana/NW Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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