mimillman Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Gotta wonder if the lake effect band holds as modeled, if LOT will pull a lake effect snow advisory on Cook and Lake counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 19, 2015 Author Share Posted November 19, 2015 Gotta wonder if the lake effect band holds as modeled, if LOT will pull a lake effect snow advisory on Cook and Lake counties. I doubt it, as it's part of the larger system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 19, 2015 Author Share Posted November 19, 2015 My guess at this point for mby would be a few inches of heavy, wet slop, but subject to change. My main concerns are obvious...temperatures and getting in the heavier precip band. A farther north track would reduce the chance of onshore flow here (flow would tend to be more E/SE) but could be a bit warmer overall, while a farther south track would make a longer period of onshore flow more likely, which makes me a bit nervous even being several miles inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Gotta wonder if the lake effect band holds as modeled, if LOT will pull a lake effect snow advisory on Cook and Lake counties. If anything the winter storm watch/warning might be expanded to include Cook County if it looks like a plume will set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 If anything the winter storm watch/warning might be expanded to include Cook County if it looks like a plume will set up. like i said this morning, I think we see another tier of counties, including cook and dupage, added with a WWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 like i said this morning, I think we see another tier of counties, including cook and dupage, added with a WWA Yeah I caught that. A WWA would cover things well, unless some higher resolution guidance suggests otherwise and you end up getting just as much snow down that way as it looks north of 88. People mentioning the storm now. Hearing about dusting off snow blowers and shovels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Both the euro ensemble mean and control take the main swath right down I-88 into Chicago like the op run. Not many members support the op GFS either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Both the euro ensemble mean and control take the main swath right down I-88 into Chicago like the op run. Not many members support the op GFS either. nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 At what point in time would you say the hi-res runs reign supreme? I'd say after tonight's 0z suite it's mainly about hi-res and nowcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 18Z NAM looking quite juicy in the plains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Haven't seen really any chatter about LAF. Some of these the Runs drop 3-6," over laf. Are we going with the reverse psychology thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 At what point in time would you say the hi-res runs reign supreme? I'd say after tonight's 0z suite it's mainly about hi-res and nowcasting. they're notorious for being amped at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 19, 2015 Author Share Posted November 19, 2015 Haven't seen really any chatter about LAF. Some of these the Runs drop 3-6," over laf. Are we going with the reverse psychology thing? The LAF contingent ain't what it used to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 18Z NAM looking quite juicy in the plains Def wetter at 24hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Def wetter at 24hrs pretty minor differences at 850 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 My guess at this point for mby would be a few inches of heavy, wet slop, but subject to change. My main concerns are obvious...temperatures and getting in the heavier precip band. A farther north track would reduce the chance of onshore flow here (flow would tend to be more E/SE) but could be a bit warmer overall, while a farther south track would make a longer period of onshore flow more likely, which makes me a bit nervous even being several miles inland. There is still a lot of wiggle room tho. A bit shaper trough with a slightly stronger jet as this system dives into the plains could easily cause a strong Southern shift with the mid level features causing cyclogenesis to initiate further SE where laf is right in the middle of the main band. If the front side with the initial system over the lakes ends up a bit further South the system will obviously dig more than currently progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 The LAF contingent ain't what it used to be. I am hopeful for a sneaky dumping in the LAF/OKK corridor but expect mixed slush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 pretty minor differences at 850 True, just looks like a little higher PWAT values to the south across the plains compared to some previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 it's remarkably similar to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 19, 2015 Author Share Posted November 19, 2015 Yeah it's gonna be close. Track might tick south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Yeah it's gonna be close. Track might tick south. it's ever so slightly weaker so maybe a hair south but it's about as minor of a run 2 run change as you'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Snow starting at DPA by 3z tomorrow night via 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Believe LOT just expanded the Winter Storm Watch E: http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=lot&wwa=winter%20storm%20watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Sounds like LOT just added some more counties to the WSW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 19, 2015 Author Share Posted November 19, 2015 LOT's watch is everybody north of I-80 but not including Will/Lake/Porter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 4-8" in the LOT WSW area, 2-4" downtown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Yikes. South and weaker by 39hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 18z NAM is weaker and further south. ECMWF-like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 pretty clear trend at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 15Z Plumes...QPF mean... JOT .42 ORD .54 DKB .63 SQI .72 UGN .75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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