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November 20-21 Early Season Snowstorm


Hoosier

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In a way this season may be paralleling 2006-07 for winters.  That was a pretty strong Nino itself, and there was a winter event or two right around late November/early December that some cashed in on, but after that a massive torch came for most of December.  Hopefully that doesn't happen here, but those who cash in on this early season action will be buying some time for December and at least shouldn't have to worry about futility records.

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Euro is looking pretty good for northeast IL/northern IN/southwest MI through 120hrs. Takes a little longer for the storm to rev up, and thus lesser precip amounts further west compared to the GFS.

Yeah slower overall then little different sfc low track to the NE but deepens nicely and still a 6-9" swath from northeast IL/northern IN/southern MI.

Also looked like a lake enhancement signal on this side at 18z Sat

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Including the trailing lake effect response, a solid 1" qpf all snow for the Detroit suburbs.

 

Ironically, this might depress me because I'm all in on a crappy winter.  And if we get an epic November storm, I will just be double-bummed out when it melts away and then rains a week later.  Oh well, what can you do.  Bring on the snow.

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Including the trailing lake effect response, a solid 1" qpf all snow for the Detroit suburbs.

Ironically, this might depress me because I'm all in on a crappy winter. And if we get an epic November storm, I will just be double-bummed out when it melts away and then rains a week later. Oh well, what can you do. Bring on the snow.

Whether or not we get this storm, it could easily be the theme for the entire winter. Trust me, no one likes snowcover more than me. But this Nino could easily force a very roller coaster winter. And as I've said it's very clear, especially with a juiced jet, to remember that a mild winter doesn't necessarily mean below normal snow.
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Geos looks like he is reeling this one in...

Overall....pretty strong signal for "N IL / S Wisco into Michigan" ish has been there for awhile now...decent consistency

 

Going to be a wet snow too by the looks of it. But what early season snow isn't.

Weird how the band jumps north on the other side of the lake...

gfs_asnow_ncus_21.png

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