Gilbertfly Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Ground temp charts for reference if your interested... http://www.isws.illinois.edu/warm/dashboard.asp?stationID=stc&details=9&fromDate=September%201,%202015&toDate=November%2016,%202015#soilInformation Edit....I know rates can trump quite a bit...the above is just fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Just borderline here. Probably a RA/SN mix or real sticky flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Timing on the 00Z GFS is about as good as you can get for N IL ... with most of the precip falling overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 GEM coming in with a snowband centered along US 20 in Iowa. Just slightly north of the GFS in terms of heaviest amounts. Racine jackpot in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Yeah Canadian with a little different look and timing...but still manages a decent thump by November standards when all is said done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 gfs_6hr_snow_acc_chicago_21.png Nice DKB to Alek bullseye there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 In a way this season may be paralleling 2006-07 for winters. That was a pretty strong Nino itself, and there was a winter event or two right around late November/early December that some cashed in on, but after that a massive torch came for most of December. Hopefully that doesn't happen here, but those who cash in on this early season action will be buying some time for December and at least shouldn't have to worry about futility records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Euro is looking pretty good for northeast IL/northern IN/southwest MI through 120hrs. Takes a little longer for the storm to rev up, and thus lesser precip amounts further west compared to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 0Z ECMWF went nuclear, widespread Winter Storm Warning criteria event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Euro is looking pretty good for northeast IL/northern IN/southwest MI through 120hrs. Takes a little longer for the storm to rev up, and thus lesser precip amounts further west compared to the GFS. Yeah slower overall then little different sfc low track to the NE but deepens nicely and still a 6-9" swath from northeast IL/northern IN/southern MI. Also looked like a lake enhancement signal on this side at 18z Sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 0Z ECMWF went nuclear, widespread Winter Storm Warning criteria event. The GFS had even higher snow amounts than the Euro.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Posting the Euro run, don't repost it please. DTW jackpot. http://i.imgur.com/JfrJSEul.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Including the trailing lake effect response, a solid 1" qpf all snow for the Detroit suburbs. Ironically, this might depress me because I'm all in on a crappy winter. And if we get an epic November storm, I will just be double-bummed out when it melts away and then rains a week later. Oh well, what can you do. Bring on the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 17, 2015 Author Share Posted November 17, 2015 Fat pig ridge building northward afterwards on the latter frames of the ECMWF as troughing develops in the west. Actually some pretty decent model agreement on a warmup after the weekend so if you're not ready for winter yet, just wait a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Where do I have to pay for the Euro to lock in? Ahh who am I kidding, this will guarantee shift away, I will just pack that dream image in the back of my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Including the trailing lake effect response, a solid 1" qpf all snow for the Detroit suburbs. Ironically, this might depress me because I'm all in on a crappy winter. And if we get an epic November storm, I will just be double-bummed out when it melts away and then rains a week later. Oh well, what can you do. Bring on the snow. Whether or not we get this storm, it could easily be the theme for the entire winter. Trust me, no one likes snowcover more than me. But this Nino could easily force a very roller coaster winter. And as I've said it's very clear, especially with a juiced jet, to remember that a mild winter doesn't necessarily mean below normal snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Too many runs to get tooo excited yet.... Potential snow is better than the warmth of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Wagons north - yet again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Too many runs to get tooo excited yet.... Potential snow is better than the warmth of late. 8 months of above freezing is good enough. I hear ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 This is got it's old fashioned north of 59 special written all over it. Meaning north of 59 will see a couple inches and south will see a slush dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 This is got it's old fashioned north of 59 special written all over it. Meaning north of 59 will see a couple inches and south will see a slush dusting. I don't know if I see it moving much, but seasonal trends would argue otherwise so it's possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 The 06Z runs the last few days have all been north, no big worries. The only model with a semblance of consistency has been the ECMWF showing a south Michigan Storm for 4 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Local forecast for Saturday now has 35* and chance of snow. Cooling off... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Geos looks like he is reeling this one in... Overall....pretty strong signal for "N IL / S Wisco into Michigan" ish has been there for awhile now...decent consistency Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 17, 2015 Author Share Posted November 17, 2015 12z GGEM is south of 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Geos looks like he is reeling this one in... Overall....pretty strong signal for "N IL / S Wisco into Michigan" ish has been there for awhile now...decent consistency Going to be a wet snow too by the looks of it. But what early season snow isn't. Weird how the band jumps north on the other side of the lake... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 12z GEM. Almost like a clipper track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Model spread is actually growing, the euro might stay put. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Wow, quite a model variance on track. Welcome to winter. Might turn into a Geos snow magnet winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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