Thundersnow12 Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 0z ECMWF is gonna be further south and weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 19, 2015 Author Share Posted November 19, 2015 Compared to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 19, 2015 Author Share Posted November 19, 2015 Should be getting better RAOB sampling in the next couple cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Compared to 12z post-266-0-36222100-1447870679.png Pretty good agreement already on a N IL, S WI jackpot area. Devil is in the details as always, but starting to lean towards a high end advisory event for mby. First and final call, swinging for the fences, 5.8" in DKB, cyclone jackpot with 6.5", and ORD with 6.0". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 I guess I'd be happy with the 6z hires nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 I guess I'd be happy with the 6z hires nam ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Pretty good agreement already on a N IL, S WI jackpot area. Devil is in the details as always, but starting to lean towards a high end advisory event for mby. First and final call, swinging for the fences, 5.8" in DKB, cyclone jackpot with 6.5", and ORD with 6.0". I would say thats a reasonable call for your area. This warm ground nonsense is getting annoying. No, it will not accumulate as effeciently as a January snowfall, but to see that much qpf and hear anything under 3" is silly. I cant count the number of times the warm ground argument, or everyones favorite "sun angle" (starting in Feb), has been proven wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 I would say thats a reasonable call for your area. This warm ground nonsense is getting annoying. No, it will not accumulate as effeciently as a January snowfall, but to see that much qpf and hear anything under 3" is silly. I cant count the number of times the warm ground argument, or everyones favorite "sun angle" (starting in Feb), has been proven wrong. There is a valid argument for current and recent conditions affecting accums. But I don't always understand how it happens. For instance, last mid November we picked up 3.8" from a storm that was predicted to be 4-6", (which ended up being a pretty good forecast). That came on the heels of a fairly mild pattern. A couple of winters ago we had a snow storm in December, and I remember b**ch'n about how it seemed like a late March snowstorm because the only place it accumulated was grassy surfaces. So many variables. Ground temp, time of day that the snow falls, intensity, etc., and even trying to consider all of those you'll still end up surprised, good or bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 There is a valid argument for current and recent conditions affecting accums. But I don't always understand how it happens. For instance, last mid November we picked up 3.8" from a storm that was predicted to be 4-6", (which ended up being a pretty good forecast). That came on the heels of a fairly mild pattern. A couple of winters ago we had a snow storm in December, and I remember b**ch'n about how it seemed like a late March snowstorm because the only place it accumulated was grassy surfaces. So many variables. Ground temp, time of day that the snow falls, intensity, etc., and even trying to consider all of those you'll still end up surprised, good or bad. fair enough. I can remember a few snowfalls where I was surprised how poor the accumulation was, but I can remember far more where the above factors were listed as concerns and luckily didnt pan out. I will say, though, that between the "warm ground" and "sun angle" arguments, I could see the warm ground concerns panning out now (to an extent) versus sun angle concerns in Feb (during an actual snowstorm, not a few spitting flurries lol). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Woo woo! All aboard the hype train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 I almost feel as if all the predictions will be making a southward shift, based on what will be coming up on today's runs... As a side note, I think we've missed snowfall. 13 page thread and we're still 40 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 good map, maybe a little light Kenosha/Racine Co Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 I almost feel as if all the predictions will be making a southward shift, based on what will be coming up on today's runs... As a side note, I think we've missed snowfall. 13 page thread and we're still 40 hours out. A quick glance at the 6z gfs ensembles show 8 of the 11 ensembles south of the OP (at least in this area). 12z runs will be interesting for potential trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 CMC snow map is the best case scenario for the whole subforum this run. Widespread WSW level event from Iowa to Michigan. Some* of the subforum. Congrats to those on your first snowfalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 if you're looking for a weaker/south trend, the 0z euro and 6z GFS ensembles aren't bad signs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 2-5" for MBY seems to be a good call ATP. 1-2" for DTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Looking like cold rain with some wet flurries mixed in at times for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 if you're looking for a weaker/south trend, the 0z euro and 6z GFS ensembles aren't bad signs Yeah, I'm not fond of the lack of agreement on the Ensembles for my general area. A couple have 0.1"QPF, a couple have 1"+QPF, and everything else is in between. Guess I need to ride a DAB-10" call lol. Same old story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 9Z plumes .... QPF mean.... JOT .65 DKB .89 ORD .82 SQI .91 72 hour probs for 8 inch or greater.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasmosnow Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 if you're looking for a weaker/south trend, the 0z euro and 6z GFS ensembles aren't bad signs I don't look at the ensembles if I like what the OP is forecasting.Reverse is true if the OP is dissapointing.I think yesterday ten of 12 of the ensembles from the noon GFS run had MSN in good precip.Whatever is reassuring is what you try to memerize your self with! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 12Z NAM precip shield looks more expansive on the southern flank compared to last night's 00Z run...the northern expanse of the shield looks in line with the 00Z through the plains into Iowa through H36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasmosnow Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Yeah, I'm not fond of the lack of agreement on the Ensembles for my general area. A couple have 0.1"QPF, a couple have 1"+QPF, and everything else is in between. Guess I need to ride a DAB-10" call lol. Same old story. YA GOTTA BELIEVE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 12Z NAM precip shield looks more expansive on the southern flank compared to last night's 00Z run...the northern expanse of the shield looks in line with the 00Z through the plains into Iowa through H36 energy rounding the trough is stronger this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 energy rounding the trough is stronger this run yeah good eye... QPF explosion in Iowa at H39 rip city through H42 in Iowa...and that's in the middle of the night there....should be some good totals there if that were to verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Looking like cold rain with some wet flurries mixed in at times for here. Thinking I'll be able to squeeze out 1-2" here for a nice early season coating. South trends are our friend this time. Likely a bit of mixed precip early Saturday followed by some snow as rates increase and temps drop on the back side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 SLP weaker and a little further south through H48...should provide a little bit better QPF into LOT compared to 00Z run ALEK QPF bullseye LE setup is quite nice through this run as the system strengthens to the SE and pivot point NE winds "crank" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 .75" of 2:1 slop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Looks like some nice banding sets up out by Cyclone and Hawkeye...could be some decent numbers out that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 WSW for the NW third of LOT: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL346 AM CST THU NOV 19 2015...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY....A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIESFRIDAY AFTERNOON AND APPROACH THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING.PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY DEVELOP AND OVERSPREADNORTHWEST ILLINOIS AROUND SUNSET. AT THE ONSET TEMPERATURES WILLBE WARM ENOUGH TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION AS A RAIN SNOW MIX...THENQUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW. GROUND TEMPERATURES WILLINITIALLY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS ON SURFACES...HOWEVER AS THE SYSTEMSTRENGTHENS OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLYSATURDAY SNOW WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE. THE POTENTIAL FOR4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW CURRENTLY EXISTS IN THE WATCH AREAS...BUTTHE PRECISE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILLLIKELY CAUSE SNOWFALL TOTALS TO FLUCTUATE.ILZ003>006-008-010>012-191800-/O.NEW.KLOT.WS.A.0004.151121T0000Z-151121T1800Z/WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE IL-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCKFORD...BELVIDERE...WOODSTOCK...WAUKEGAN...OREGON...DIXON...DEKALB...AURORA346 AM CST THU NOV 19 2015...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGHSATURDAY MORNING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORMWATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAYMORNING.* TIMING...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY MORNING.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 7 INCHES.* IMPACTS...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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