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November 20-21 Early Season Snowstorm


Hoosier

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925mb 0 degree celcius line stays south and east of the city for the duration of the event. It seems like, given the time of day, this is an all-snow event. The warm layer is very shallow.

 

I would say a lot depends on how strong the system becomes (even with the current track).  If it is quite strong and the easterly winds blow past 20mph or so, then there could be some mixing near the lake, even sneaking up into SE Wisconsin, though likely confined to within 5 miles or so of the shore.

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It keeps bumping between North and South, depending on what the GEM/ECMWF do, we should see if the 12Z Run will go back south.

 

Model trying to figure out the strength of the low and the position and strength of the block to the north.

At least we don't have any wild swings at this point.

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It keeps bumping between North and South, depending on what the GEM/ECMWF do, we should see if the 12Z Run will go back south.

The GFS doesn't see what the GEM and ECMWF do and then decide which way it's going to trend.

If the southern shortwave ejects fast enough and gets ahead of the northern shortwave dropping into the Midwest, there is room for the trough to go negatively tilted, which would support the more amped up and north solutions.

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CIPS analogs

 

 

post-14-0-45664000-1447911306_thumb.png

 

 

I might have to call myself a :weenie: with this post, but of this list, I'd say this bears a fair amount of resemblance to 12/11/2000.  Not only the synoptic setup but the potential outcome, simply because a number of these didn't produce much snow.  Now that doesn't mean it will be a clone...it won't be as no 2 storms are the same...and that storm was 3 weeks later in the calendar year, which makes a difference (especially if you're near the lake), but I was surprised at the general similarities. 

 

 

 

post-14-0-43812700-1447912170_thumb.gif

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