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November 20-21 Early Season Snowstorm


Hoosier

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IWX AFD is 1.5 hours late. Interesting.

 

There was nothing nefarious. They simply didn't realize that the disco didn't go out until I contacted them on NWSChat. Nick got it out within 5 minutes after I talked to him.

 

IWX is thinking 6 inches of snow could become 1 inch of snow because too warm.   :whistle:

 

I haven't seen anything where they are implying that. Most of the models only are showing .3 or .4" of precip for IWX CWA. After accounting for maybe a mix at the start along with unfrozen ground, a slushy inch or two might be a good call for you. I'm not expecting anything more than a DAB down here.

 

I said it earlier in the thread: Congrats Geos.

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There was nothing nefarious. They simply didn't realize that the disco didn't go out until I contacted them on NWSChat. Nick got it out within 5 minutes after I talked to him.

 

 

I haven't seen anything where they are implying that. Most of the models only are showing .3 or .4" of precip for IWX CWA. After accounting for maybe a mix at the start along with unfrozen ground, a slushy inch or two might be a good call for you. I'm not expecting anything more than a DAB down here.

 

I said it earlier in the thread: Congrats Geos.

Early season events are always tough but agree with your thoughts...inch at best our way to 2-4 along the in/mi border. Melts next week regardless.

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I think while the more extreme outcome could occur, I think there's good reasons to be wary of widespread very high totals. For starters, the very warm ground temps cutting into initial accums and probable low ratios overall. In addition, there's been a consistent signal for very strong frontogenesis banding. I'm concerned that there could be a scenario where that banding is fairly narrow and receives the high totals with much less outside the band due to subsidence and aforementioned lower ratios/warm ground and lower snow rates.

Regarding the poorly collaborated snow map, IMHO, our roughly 3-6" forecast is pretty bullish as a starting point for a November snowstorm, but we could've done a better job finding common ground with DVN and MKX.

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

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The nam's crushing of east-central Iowa makes me tingle(yes, qpf likely overdone), but I'm still perplexed by the model's fizzling of the low as it heads toward Lake Erie.  Anyone wanna take a shot at what that's all about?

 

Edit: I guess the low does slowly deepen, but the precip field just gradually weakens farther east.

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Today I happily met a caravan of IDOT snow trucks packed with salt pulling into their station on Techny Rd in Northbrook! They're getting ready alright!

 

I saw trucks with plows on them today. They're getting ready quickly.

At work they set out buckets of salt by the outside doors.

 

NAM is getting closer to the rest of the guidance. 

 

post-7-0-15637500-1447902581.jpg

 

namconus_asnow_ncus_27.png

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