King James Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Does he think the ground is too warm or something? Said if it was a month later we would really have a snow on our hands.. Thinks the 50 degree lake and overall warm weather of late will keep accumulations down. Was reluctant to talk about much in the way of accumulations. Said it could stick though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Does he think the ground is too warm or something? IWX is thinking 6 inches of snow could become 1 inch of snow because too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 In general or just in the city? He referenced the lake. So I imagine any areas close enough to be affected by the lakes warmer temperatures. I'm just a viewer/lurker. Was left with the impression not to expect too much at this point from his broadcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxDanny Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 I went 2-3" as a baseline axis across the 88 corridor with room to grow. Very skeptical on compaction/rates/melting. Color me a pessimist. Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Clearly seeing disagreements between LOT and DVN at this point. LOL this map cracks me up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2015 Author Share Posted November 18, 2015 lake temps Expansive area AOA 50, which is similar to what they were in advance of the 11/24/2004 storm in which accumulations were limited in the city. As I've pointed out though, this system looks to not really wind up until it's moving past, which means that winds *may* be turning more offshore from Chicago by the time the flow really strengthens. Just have to watch the model trends as far as that goes. Can't ignore the lake warmth, but perhaps not as drastic of a limiting effect as what happened in 2004? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Clearly seeing disagreements between LOT and DVN at this point. LOL this map cracks me upWhole image for accumulation reference... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 lake temps mswt-24.gif Expansive area AOA 50, which is similar to what they were in advance of the 11/24/2004 storm in which accumulations were limited in the city. As I've pointed out though, this system looks to not really wind up until it's moving past, which means that winds *may* be turning more offshore from Chicago by the time the flow really strengthens. Just have to watch the model trends as far as that goes. Can't ignore the lake warmth, but perhaps not as drastic of a limiting effect as what happened in 2004? Agreed. I think some of the talk about lake warmth and warm ground temps are a little over done. We should be in the 30s Thursday night and have clouds 3/4 of the day Friday which should help maybe cool down the ground temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Whole image for accumulation reference... Thanks! I gotta say, I think I'm siding with DVN at this point... LOT's being too conservative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2015 Author Share Posted November 18, 2015 Agreed. I think some of the talk about lake warmth and warm ground temps are a little over done. We should be in the 30s Thursday night and have clouds 3/4 of the day Friday which should help maybe cool down the ground temps. Just for comparison, look how deep the surface low was back in 2004, which of course resulted in much stronger winds off the lake. I'd obviously go less in the city but the question is how much. This whole discussion could be moot though if we see a significant north or south shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Louieloy102 Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Thanks! I gotta say, I think I'm siding with DVN at this point... LOT's being too conservative The system hasn't been sampled yet, so it's safe to be (relatively) conservative at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 I can see snow melting on impact at first but as the system continues the melting rate will decrease as the snow cools down surface temps. Trees,bridges and grassy areas will see the highest accumulations. Followed by gravel, soil, concrete and then asphalt. To have any true accumulations rates will have to exceed 1.25in/hr... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 For reference...Detroits top 10 November snowstorms on record: NOVEMBER 01.) 9.0" - Nov 15/16, 1932 02.) 6.3" - Nov 25/26, 1950 03.) 6.2" - Nov 8/9, 1921 04.) 6.2" - Nov 15, 1925 05.) 6.0" - Nov 2/3, 1966 06.) 5.7" - Nov 6/7, 1951 07.) 5.7" - Nov 13/14, 1974 08.) 5.6" - Nov 26, 1977 09.) 5.4" - Nov 16/17, 1920 10.) 5.2" - Nov 26/27, 1975 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 The system hasn't been sampled yet, so it's safe to be (relatively) conservative at this point. Very true... but they're still too conservative imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 I went 2-3" as a baseline axis across the 88 corridor with room to grow. Very skeptical on compaction/rates/melting. Color me a pessimist. Sent from my SM-G925V when Ed Hochuli speaks.....I listen..... agree....2-3 is the right way to go at this juncture... my call comes with zero responsibility and I usually tend to be on the end of the spectrum with snow... that being said, it wouldn't shock me to see ground temps be 10 to 15 degrees less then they are now by the time the flakes fly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Weather Underground/Weather Channel saying: Generally 5-8" with 8-12" around SE WI and NE IL (lake enchancement I think) and "a few spots could easily reach 8-12 inches" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Wonder if we could find some photos of these events and compare the measured amounts to accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 I've been out of this for awhile, maybe a dusting, but congrats to those who do cash in on the first snow! Illinois/Wisconsin state line looking prime. Lake machine should do some work too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Looking at old pictures on my phone....I have one from a snowfall last year on 24NOV2014...shows my stick measuring an inch of snow with the lawns and cars all white...pavement and sidewalks just wet. The photo was taken at 11:30 in the morning...but I can't remember what the rates were like with that particular system...a quick review of the temps showed high temps around 50 the few days leading up to it though. So there might be some reference available there as it was fairly recent and around the same time on the calendar...not insinuating anything....just fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 not a horrible pac feed as modeled now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Wonder if we could find some photos of these events and compare the measured amounts to accumulations. I actually do have a photo from Nov 17, 1932 of a roof caved in in Detroit from heavy, wet snow. The winter of 1932-33 sucked, the November storm clearly being the highlight of that meager 25.8-inch winter. A January completely barren of snowcover yet a record November snow. Go figure. Of the winters following the top 10 November snowstorms, only two (1932-33, 1920-21) went on to have below normal snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Any info on the 12z Euro Ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 It was actually pretty cold in the leadup to that 1951 storm that I posted. A more recent case, November 29, 2011, wasn't cold in the leadup and was able to produce a band of 6-10" in IN/MI. 1st hand account here on that. You're correct, ground was really warm, 8.5 inches fell at 32*F which stayed on my deck, but concrete driveway was about 6", one of which was a super soggy slush mess. The 2"/hr rates for entire event overcame even the hot streets. Without those rates, might have been very little accums on roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Said if it was a month later we would really have a snow on our hands.. Thinks the 50 degree lake and overall warm weather of late will keep accumulations down. Was reluctant to talk about much in the way of accumulations. Said it could stick though. IWX is thinking 6 inches of snow could become 1 inch of snow because too warm. The snowstorm of 12/01/2006 was proceeded by warm temps like we have now and wet ground. Cooled off quite a bit the day before the storm on 11/30/06, winds turned off mild lake waters. During the storm it stayed at 31-32° (at night) and at about 8am the next morning when it was done, 12.5" had fallen! Top couple inches of the soil had frozen over during the night. I know it can snow big right after a warm spell, so the warm ground theory at least doesn't hold much water, especially if the snow is moderate to heavy. Lake temps could and probably will cut back on totals, but as long as the wind isn't ripping off the lake, it should hold back the snow too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 The snowstorm of 12/01/2006 was proceeded by warm temps like we have now and wet ground. Cooled off quite a bit the day before the storm on 11/30/06, winds turned off mild lake waters. During the storm it stayed at 31-32° (at night) and at about 8am the next morning when it was done, 12.5" had fallen! Top couple inches of the soil had frozen over during the night. I know it can snow big right after a warm spell, so the warm ground theory at least doesn't hold much water, especially if the snow is moderate to heavy. Lake temps could and probably will cut back on totals, but as long as the wind isn't ripping off the lake, it should hold back the snow too much. Yeah and as I said before, Thursday night we're looking at 30 degree temperatures and cloudy skies most of Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 LOT tweeted something mentioning several inches of snow just a minute or two ago: https://twitter.com/NWSChicago/status/667156745341374464 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 LOT tweeted something mentioning several inches of snow just a minute or two ago: https://twitter.com/NWSChicago/status/667156745341374464You beat me to it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 DMX released this map. Jackpot by Dubuque go figure, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 P&C for Elgin shows 4.7", for O'Hare shows 3.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 21Z plumes for QPF .... means.... JOT .44 ORD .55 DKB .56 SQI .55 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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