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November 20-21 Early Season Snowstorm


Hoosier

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I would probably nick off an inch or so due to melting initially which GRR mentioned in their AFD, but if it comes down hard enough/fast enough eventually it is snow falling on snow.

 

yeah makes sense...as far as soil temps, although they are higher now (around 45 near the surface)...they will take a hit over the next 48 hours (near 35 or so IMO by 00Z 21NOV).  Pavement is a trickier call and will depend on sunshine vs. cloudy etc.  Regardless, as you said...the rates can trump quite a bit if they are good enough

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If the models hold tomorrow after the 12z suite, I think we could see some watches posted.

Des Moines probably issues one tomorrow morning, as they will be getting the snow Friday Afternoon. The rest will probably wait until afternoon, except for DTX might wait until Friday Morning as there is more uncertainty there.

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The lake enhancement setup looks alright.  Lake-850 mb delta T starts off in the mid teens and trends toward the upper teens/near 20C toward the end.  Good moisture and high inversion heights.  I guess my main concern would be how long it sets up over any particular spot.

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Bring it. A nice warm fall and an early snowstorm. Love it. Watch this be the only snow we see until mid-January.

 

Fire up that live feed!

Ha - I hope not.

 

Regarding trees, except for a few slow sugar maples, the trees have been bare for at least 10 days around here.

 

Edit:

DMX already posted winter storm watches.

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Will be time to start digging into the November snowstorm records over the next couple days as the position of the snow band gets refined.  I posted the one for Chicago yesterday.  I checked Rockford and theirs is 9.5" on November 6-7, 1951.  Whether this ends up being a record breaker for some areas remains to be seen but we appear to be heading toward something pretty unusual at least.

 

 

Went and mapped this one.  Very impressive width of 5+ for early November.  Probably going to be a narrower snowstorm this time.

 

post-14-0-38670700-1447888085_thumb.png

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...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE

FRIDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DES MOINES HAS ISSUED A WINTER

STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE

FRIDAY NIGHT.

* TIMING...SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE WEST TO

EAST ACROSS IOWA STARTING MIDDAY FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO

ALL SNOW AREA WIDE BY FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING EARLY SATURDAY

MORNING.

* STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE WATCH

AREA ARE EXPECTED TO VARY FROM FIVE TO SEVEN INCHES ON

VEGETATION...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS DUE TO MELTING ON SIDEWALKS AND

PAVEMENT. CONFIDENCE IN SNOW AMOUNTS IS NOT HIGH AT THIS POINT

HOWEVER DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH REGARD TO STORM TRACK AND THE

DEGREE OF MELTING.

* WINDS/VISIBILITIES...WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH DURING THE SNOW MAY

PRODUCE MINOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING...AND ALSO HELP CONTRIBUTE TO

VISIBILITIES UNDER A MILE DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER SNOW.

* IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BECOME WET INITIALLY AND THEN SLUSHY BEFORE

SNOW BEGINS ACCUMULATING. THE COMBINATION OF SLUSHY AND SNOW

COVERED ROADS MAY LEAD TO HAZARDOUS TRAVEL

CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DURING THE FRIDAY EVENING COMMUTE.

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...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE

FRIDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DES MOINES HAS ISSUED A WINTER

STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE

FRIDAY NIGHT.

* TIMING...SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE WEST TO

EAST ACROSS IOWA STARTING MIDDAY FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO

ALL SNOW AREA WIDE BY FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING EARLY SATURDAY

MORNING.

* STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE WATCH

AREA ARE EXPECTED TO VARY FROM FIVE TO SEVEN INCHES ON

VEGETATION...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS DUE TO MELTING ON SIDEWALKS AND

PAVEMENT. CONFIDENCE IN SNOW AMOUNTS IS NOT HIGH AT THIS POINT

HOWEVER DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH REGARD TO STORM TRACK AND THE

DEGREE OF MELTING.

* WINDS/VISIBILITIES...WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH DURING THE SNOW MAY

PRODUCE MINOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING...AND ALSO HELP CONTRIBUTE TO

VISIBILITIES UNDER A MILE DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER SNOW.

* IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BECOME WET INITIALLY AND THEN SLUSHY BEFORE

SNOW BEGINS ACCUMULATING. THE COMBINATION OF SLUSHY AND SNOW

COVERED ROADS MAY LEAD TO HAZARDOUS TRAVEL

CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DURING THE FRIDAY EVENING COMMUTE.

I guess Des Moines jumped my gun.

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Any thoughts on IWX's AFD:

 

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 557 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AN UPPER TROF WILL TRAVERSE THE GTLKS
REGION THU TAKING ON A NEG TILT FRI AS IT LIFTS NE OF THE REGION.
THE FCST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS THE MAIN DYNAMICS ARE WELL
NORTH OF THE FCST AREA. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SAT AS THE NEXT UPPER TROF APPROACHES FROM THE MIDWEST.
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND A COOLING THERMAL PROFILE WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR OUR FIRST ACUMMULATING SNOW OF THE SEASON. THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO BE THE FARTHEST NW SOLUTION OF THE MODELS WHILE THE
GFS/NAM/GEM HAVE TRNEDED SOMEWHAT FURTHER SOUTH. THE NAM DEPCITED
THE SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY WHILE THE ECMWF AND
GFS TAKE THE LOW ACROSS NE IN INTO SE MI ON SAT. WITH SNOW RATIOS
OF ABOUT 12 TO 1 AND THE GROUND STILL SOMEWHAT WARM...EXPECT
SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS CLOSER TO
LAKE MI. AS THE LOW CONTS TO LIFT NE...LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SHOULD
DEVELOP THOUGH DON'T EXPECT THE DURATION TO BE FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE CANADIEN AIRMASS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE
COLDEST OF THE SEASON WITH LOWS SAT NIGHT EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
LOWER 20S WITH HIGHS SUN STRUGGLING TO REACH THE THE LOWER 30S. A
WARMING TRNED WILL BEGIN MON AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPR 30S AND
LOW 40S FOR TUE-WED.

 

They don't think jack will stick.

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Checked the point for here and was surprised to see it shows 5"/2" Friday night/Saturday.  

 

Many areas will have the snow start at night which should help things take off pretty quickly.  Especially since the snow looks to come down pretty quickly at times with this vigorous little system.  

 

Really too early for me to make a call for here, but thinking a few inches is a good possibility.  I think the northern DVN cwa has the best chance at picking up the more substantial totals at this point.

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Checked the point for here and was surprised to see it shows 5"/2" Friday night/Saturday.  

 

Many areas will have the snow start at night which should help things take off pretty quickly.  Especially since the snow looks to come down pretty quickly at times with this vigorous little system.  

 

Really too early for me to make a call for here, but thinking a few inches is a good possibility.  I think the northern DVN cwa has the best chance at picking up the more substantial totals at this point.

 

 

Bingo to the bolded.  Specifically for Chi metro, the November 24, 2004 storm actually had onset in the late morning/early afternoon. 

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Skilling seems leery of any big accumulations

I can remember in '74 or '75 up to a foot forecasted pre Thanksgiving. Snowed gangbusters for 10-12 hours. When all was said and done only had 4 " on the ground. Just see ratios and compaction doing there dirty work this early. Positive note- who figured we would be tracking a potential winter storm this early?

And the majority of that storm fell at night. Also, that 2004 storm left only an inch of crusted slush on pavements while grass areas did see 4 " or so even in areas like streamwood far nw of chi. Metro.

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