Thundersnow12 Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 The NAM will sometimes overdo strength of WAA across the plains and causing it to be too far north. Not always but several cases with the synoptic low well south in the plains with the E-W band to the north and the WAA will cause it to be too far north. Something to watch over the next 24-36hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 NAM looks to tick stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Should be a NAMreffic run...complete with bulging lollipops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Should be a NAMreffic run...complete with bulging lollipops it's fine and falls nicely within the envelope of solutions on the table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Looks great. Winter storm watches up soon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 it's fine and falls nicely within the envelope of solutions on the table Yeah...didn't get too out of hand... 3.8 inches in my hourly p and c Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 For an early season snow threat, this one really hasn't wavered too much on the models. When's the last time the Chicago or Milwaukee area saw a legit snowstorm before Turkey time? I'm hoping for 3" here. Expecting anything much above that is setting yourself up for disappointment given the warm lake, warm ground, iffy temps at the onset. Strange how the NAM has this thing moving a little south of east and shearing out while other models have it really winding up as it moves east. I'm sure some surprises are still in store. Bring on the snow, it'll be gone in a couple days anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2015 Author Share Posted November 18, 2015 For an early season snow threat, this one really hasn't wavered too much on the models. When's the last time the Chicago or Milwaukee area saw a legit snowstorm before Turkey time? I'm hoping for 3" here. Expecting anything much above that is setting yourself up for disappointment given the warm lake, warm ground, iffy temps at the onset. Strange how the NAM has this thing moving a little south of east and shearing out while other models have it really winding up as it moves east. I'm sure some surprises are still in store. Bring on the snow, it'll be gone in a couple days anyways. Depends on what "legit" means. ORD had 4.3" on 11/24/2004, which was right before Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Depends on what "legit" means. ORD had 4.3" on 11/24/2004, which was right before Thanksgiving. 4.3" is definitely legit when it falls in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Wow never expected to see wagons south with this. I'll just be happy to see flakes fly at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2015 Author Share Posted November 18, 2015 4.3" is definitely legit when it falls in November. I remember it well. Had to drive from LAF to Chi metro that day, and conditions really went downhill as I got farther north. Totals near the lake were considerably less than farther inland, though that setup had a much stronger low pressure with ripping flow off the lake throughout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Depends on what "legit" means. ORD had 4.3" on 11/24/2004, which was right before Thanksgiving. IIRC it came down good during that event. Was a evening one I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Depends on what "legit" means. ORD had 4.3" on 11/24/2004, which was right before Thanksgiving. First time I ever drove in snow, the US 127 corridor in MI got between 6-9" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 IIRC it came down good during that event. Was a evening one I believe Yeah, late afternoon into the evening. Pretty good rates too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Depends on what "legit" means. ORD had 4.3" on 11/24/2004, which was right before Thanksgiving. I remember that Thanksgiving well. Would have to look and see what I got at home, but I think it was 3" or so. 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 The NAM is oddly fizzling the system as it passes Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 12z NAEFS has the QPF bullseye from the IL/WI border to the thumb and through Muskoka. Edit: 12z GEPS looks south of the NAEFS. 12hr precip forecast at hr 72(in mm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 The NAM is oddly fizzling the system as it passes Chicago. Odd, to say the least. Especially when considering it over does every other model this far out. Gladly take a EURO/GFS blend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 GFS holds serve....looks a tad stronger and wetter though GEOS gets lollipopped LE style at H72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 FWIW, based off our course snow ratio output on AWIPS, the 12z Euro has basically 0:1 ratios for downtown Chicago and points south/east for almost the whole event until winds flip to northwest on the backside Saturday afternoon. We officially only went with ~1-2" for the city proper in the grids, highest inland. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Low cuts over Topeka at 1011mb. Just a tad further north in Kansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 18z GFS really hitting the LE potential in SE. WI/NE. IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Can see the LES signature on the map here. Reminds me of the clipper on Nov. 16, 1997 that dropped 10" at home and up to 13" in Lake County due to LEhS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 IWX AFD is 1.5 hours late. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2015 Author Share Posted November 18, 2015 fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Roughly an inch and a little more in spots for QPF totals in most of LOT north of I80 on the 18Z GFS....do what you want with ratios/compaction/melting from there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Really healthy totals. Bullseye over Tuanis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Roughly an inch and a little more in spots for QPF totals in most of LOT north of I80 on the 18Z GFS....do what you want with ratios/compaction/melting from there I would probably nick off an inch or so due to melting initially which GRR mentioned in their AFD, but if it comes down hard enough/fast enough eventually it is snow falling on snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2015 Author Share Posted November 18, 2015 Obviously it will depend on how quickly the system deepens but it looks like there's some potential for near-blizzard conditions to develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Really healthy totals. Bullseye over Tuanis. If the models hold tomorrow after the 12z suite, I think we could see some watches posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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