Hoosier Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Don't have a lot of confidence in this one yet in terms of where the snow band lays out or how significant it will be, but this looks like the first real chance of accumulating synoptic snow for somebody. Discuss away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 i'll probably get buried so sick of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 16, 2015 Author Share Posted November 16, 2015 i'll probably get buried so sick of this Lake temps still in the low 50s, so you got that going for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Yeah the 12z GFS is back to how it was looking yesterday, albeit a little more progressive. GEM is on board as well, although even more progressive. Something to watch anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 For reference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 GEM says congrats ALEK and Benton Harbor http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015111612/gem_asnow_us_40.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 For reference Hi there... Seems as though BL temps on the GFS are very marginal, > 0 up to 900mb. Most of this would melt off, and leave probably a slushy accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 GEM says congrats ALEK and Benton Harbor http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015111612/gem_asnow_us_40.png ..includes Lk Effect over 10 days.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Lol at Alek. Still a snow hangover from last winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 12z ECMWF back onboard as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Beat me to it^ 4-6" right along I-88 in IL and northern IN does slightly better than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Gfs really bringing in the cold behind this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 will 2015-2016 season be the shifts north or south for snow...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 The slower timing of the ECMWF and GEM would likely be more conducive to accumulation on road surfaces because of how warm the ground will be after several days of mild temperatures. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 12z ECMWF back onboard as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 12Z ECMWF actually has a 10 inch bulls-eye over South Bend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman1952 Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Hard to believe with temps in the mid 60's here today. lol At least a "tongue" of the forecasted snow points towards me. mike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 gfs_6hr_snow_acc_chicago_21.png That would be extremely impressive, especially since most of us haven't even seen a flake yet this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 The DVN day shift is playing the "ground is too warm for much snow to accumulate" card. One local met just said some light snow is possible with little or no accumulation, while another said 1-3" is not out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 16, 2015 Author Share Posted November 16, 2015 The DVN day shift is playing the "ground is too warm for much snow to accumulate" card. They did acknowledge the possibility though IF...IF IT CAN SNOW HARD ENOUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST THAT THE GROUND MAY TAKE ON A WHITE HUE BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. IF ACCUMULATION OCCURS...IT SHOULD BE IN NARROW BANDS WHERE FORCING/COOLING ALOFT IS MAXIMIZED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 i'm familiar with the outliers but hedging against accumulating snow beyond a dusting/nuisance inch is the smart/easy call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 16, 2015 Author Share Posted November 16, 2015 i'm familiar with the outliers but hedging against accumulating snow beyond a dusting/nuisance inch is the smart/easy call We are getting into late November though, so something more significant wouldn't be that bizarre. The city may be an interesting call if it roughly stays on this track, as in how much would the lake eat into the totals. A weaker system would have weaker wind fields to help prevent the marine influence from being a problem too far inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 We are getting into late November though, so something more significant wouldn't be that bizarre. The city may be an interesting call if it roughly stays on this track, as in how much would the lake eat into the totals. A weaker system would have weaker wind fields to help prevent the marine influence from being a problem too far inland. not bizarre but rare enough to bet against a widespread 4"+ event at 100+ hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 17, 2015 Author Share Posted November 17, 2015 After looking at this setup for a bit, my thought is that where we are seeing it progged now is pretty close to where it will end up. It's hard for me to imagine a big north trend given the departing system around midweek...there's not much time for heights to recover and a lot of amplification to send this too far north. Climo would say to keep a more northern solution on the table but it's hard for me to see it in this particular setup. So southern/central Iowa, northern Illinois, northern Indiana, southern Michigan etc is where I'd want to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 GFS seems to agree with your thoughts, Hoosier. This would be quite awesome if it actually played out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 0z GFS still has the snow storm. I've seen low 60s within days of a heavy snowfall in late November/near December 1st before. If it snows hard enough, it will stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 After looking at this setup for a bit, my thought is that where we are seeing it progged now is pretty close to where it will end up. It's hard for me to imagine a big north trend given the departing system around midweek...there's not much time for heights to recover and a lot of amplification to send this too far north. Climo would say to keep a more northern solution on the table but it's hard for me to see it in this particular setup. So southern/central Iowa, northern Illinois, northern Indiana, southern Michigan etc is where I'd want to be.Sounds good to me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 17, 2015 Author Share Posted November 17, 2015 0z GFS still has the snow storm. I've seen low 60s within days of a heavy snowfall in late November/near December 1st before. If it snows hard enough, it will stick. It would definitely stick, and pretty well if something like the 00z GFS plays out, as rates would be pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 17, 2015 Author Share Posted November 17, 2015 00z GGEM is going to be a lot snowier than the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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