nrgjeff Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 For the Tuesday update I would lift the slight into West Kentucky and get the ENH into northern Mississippi - perhaps Memphis. Warm front WF will probably get into West Tenn. Might make it to West Ky. Severe parameters including a screaming low level jet will augment the squall line from the WF south. Upper winds may be less backed than forecast if a lead wave can eject ahead of the bowling ball. A couple leading edge tornadoes would not surprise me. Unfortunately it may be after dark east of the Mississippi River. I'm expecting several to numerous damaging straight line reports, esp if some line echo wave patterns LEWPs can establish. Looks like a set-up favorable to LEWPs esp after dark. Good news farther east is relatively more stable air should keep Alabama, Mid and East Tennessee safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 [attachment=165498:Storm Prediction Center Nov 16 2015 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook.png Shifted somewhat NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted November 17, 2015 Author Share Posted November 17, 2015 SPC finally got MEM deep into Slight and the ENH is knocking on the door. Hi-res NAM and HRRR both show LEWPs smacking Memphis proper and Mississippi. One could infer 2-3 of the patterns along the line of severe storms and straight line winds. Temps and dews are above levels in Kansas last night. Kansas got hammered with long-track tornadoes. I don't see long-track in the Mid South, thanks to ongoing precip and hopefully no classic sups, but the parameters are there for EF2+ even embedded in the line. Reminds me of STL airport EF2 in the line... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 548 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 310 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI EXTREME SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE * EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 310 PM UNTIL 900 PM CST. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE SUMMARY...A SQUALL LINE PRESENT OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE WATCH AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WHILE DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted November 17, 2015 Author Share Posted November 17, 2015 Tornado warned LEWP southwest of Memphis marks where the secondary or gulf warm front intersects the line. That intersection might make it far enough north to get into MEM if the WF keeps surging. I doubt a tornado holds together. Should be fun times though, at least straight line winds along the path of the LEWP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Jeff, thanks for the thread and updates... Stay safe out in southwest TN. Everyone else, tie down the lawn furniture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted November 18, 2015 Author Share Posted November 18, 2015 Thanks. Storms crapped out like the basketball Jayhawks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Thanks. Storms crapped out like the basketball Jayhawks. Well that's a shame. I was hoping to at least get a rumble of thunder out of this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Storm did peter out.Some nice wind gust anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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