A-L-E-K Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 looks like my warm/wet winter will continue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 Shame that the airmass isn't colder but I suppose it's close enough to keep the interest. If 850's can manage to be even a little below 0C then you take your chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 I'll take an impressive rain storm any day, especially if the alternative is 50 and sunny in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 ecmwf_slp_precip_mw_28.png ecmwf_slp_precip_mw_29.png Darn, so close to being a concrete mixer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 Darn, so close to being a concrete mixer. 36 degrees with heavy rain and 50mph winds is exciting, but man that's so close to being an all out blizzard. Be a crying shame if something like that happens in mid December lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 36 degrees with heavy rain and 50mph winds is exciting, but man that's so close to being an all out blizzard. Be a crying shame if something like that happens in mid December lol. Need the system to slow a little bit and allow for the colder air to seep southward more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 The upcoming pattern doesn't really scream strong Nino to me with a SE ridge, stormy around here and what cold that is available going into the northern plains and northern Rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 Looking closer at the 12z Euro, there's a strip of 850 mb temps at or a little below 0C on the western side, but it's marginal and it gets in late to do any good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 Looking closer at the 12z Euro, there's a strip of 850 mb temps at or a little below 0C on the western side, but it's marginal and it gets in late to do any good. Any accumulation nearby? GFS with the snow a little snow back in Iowa and central WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 The upcoming pattern doesn't really scream strong Nino to me with a SE ridge, stormy around here and what cold that is available going into the northern plains and northern Rockies. I'd say there's some Nina-ish aspects, especially for the CONUS. Looking at the larger picture/globally, there are some definite Nino hallmarks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 Strongest 12z Euro ensemble member looks to be 968mb in srn MI then 957mb 6hrs after that off to the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 Strongest 12z Euro ensemble member looks to be 968mb in srn MI then 957mb 6hrs after that off to the northeast. Ship sinker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 Strongest 12z Euro ensemble member looks to be 968mb in srn MI then 957mb 6hrs after that off to the northeast. can't wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 Strongest 12z Euro ensemble member looks to be 968mb in srn MI then 957mb 6hrs after that off to the northeast. Would be something to have a storm that strong not produce sig snow anywhere. Almost seems like a meteorological impossibility in the month of December lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 Would be something to have a storm that strong not produce sig snow anywhere. Almost seems like a meteorological impossibility in the month of December lol Thinking the same thing. A sub 970 low over MI in mid December not able to tap enough cold to produce a major snowstorm in the conus is quite telling. This ain't shaping up to be anywhere near the same type of winters that we've had recently....(when you farted it snowed). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 That figures, if this one goes over a sweet spot like Kankakee or Lafayette but fails to produce sig snow, this one's going to hurt for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 Thinking the same thing. A sub 970 low over MI in mid December not able to tap enough cold to produce a major snowstorm in the conus is quite telling. This ain't shaping up to be anywhere near the same type of winters that we've had recently....(when you farted it snowed). The real trouble lately has been getting these "when you farted it snowed" type of snows with strong low pressure centers. All of the systems that have produced the better snowstorms recently have generally been progressive and strung out POS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 That figures, if this one goes over a sweet spot like Kankakee or Lafayette but fails to produce sig snow, this one's going to hurt for awhile. I was thinking the same exact thing. Our path across the lake from each other has been missed by many storms and if this takes a path that is great for us in a "normal winter" and we get rain....ugh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 The real trouble lately has been getting these "when you farted it snowed" type of snows with strong low pressure centers. All of the systems that have produced the better snowstorms recently have generally been progressive and strung out POS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 Thinking the same thing. A sub 970 low over MI in mid December not able to tap enough cold to produce a major snowstorm in the conus is quite telling. This ain't shaping up to be anywhere near the same type of winters that we've had recently....(when you farted it snowed). Solid hydrogen sulfide? I wonder if it would form hexagonal crystals. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrogen_sulfide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 We've had some December clunkers in the last 5 winters. December 2011, 2012, 2014. A few areas did ok, but overall I think the sub forum as a whole didn't have any noteworthy snowfall tallies. Lol, I know what you mean about the stretches of winter, where it seems it snows about as about as you fart. Usually those pattern consist of a NW flow with embedded waves or it snows when an Arctic front approaches, etc. Hydrogen sulfide are emitted by volcanoes do and it becomes sulfur dioxide in the atmosphere - acts as a aerosol that brightens up clouds. So maybe there is a connection... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 Euro ensemble runs showing plenty of snow in the western and northwestern part of the sub forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 0z GFS came around to more of a ECMWF/GGEM solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 0z.GFS came around to more of a ECMWF/GGEM solution. The trough that follows the one on the 12th is even more impressive. Shame the moisture return isn't quick enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 That was a fantasy run on the 00z GFS for the Twin Cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 The trough that follows the one on the 12th is even more impressive. Shame the moisture return isn't quick enough. That's the only word I want to hear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 12z GFS says wash, rinse, repeat with another torch and rain storm as we approach the holiday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Liking the continued stormy look around christmas. Plenty of potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Liking the trough signals. If we only lose Dec 1st through the 20th to above normal temps, DJF(M) might still be good. Last year featured a warm December and yet that winter will be remembered as good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 13 Days is only useful in showing us a pattern developing, but this wrap around LES with WAY above normal lake temps would probably yield epic LES fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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