Winter 2015-16 Medium-Long Range Discussion

[OHweather]

Statistically the models have been fine this winter. I don't have the graphics off hand by Ryan Maue has tweeted verification graphics for 500mb heights 5 days out across the hemisphere several times through the winter and the correlations average over 0.90 for both the GFS and Euro. There are occasional "drop outs" where one model or the other has a very bad run, but overall average the hemispheric verification is as good or slightly better than in past winters. I think we have higher expectations as the models continue to improve and unfairly expect or hope for near perfection out to several days out, which won't happen anytime soon on a consistent basis. This isn't anywhere near the first time a modeled pattern 8-14 days out completely changed as it got closer. As I mentioned a few days ago ensemble spread remained very large over the lower lakes...so although the upper Great Lakes looked (and still look, at least for the UP) like a lock for those -20C 850mb temps, uncertainty over the lower lakes was higher and ultimately the less extreme solutions are winning out.

 

And if the model forecast correlates to 91 or 93% of the observed 500mb pattern in the whole hemisphere, it's worth noting that even a small portion of the uncorrelated pattern occurring over a given region can have fairly large impacts on that area. Until we have global models that all initialize better than the current Euro and are high enough resolution to properly integrate terrain and the effects of convection/latent heat release on developing storms the models will struggle with more dynamic situations until very close in. There's just no way around it.

[OHweather]

Just adding on, I think the small sample size of true winter storms for many of us may be playing into the perception that the models were "bad" this winter. If you are getting a decent snow, be it from a clipper or Colorado low, every 5 days, the models will probably bust a similar proportion of those events as they did this winter...but if your sample size is much larger and you ultimately get more snow, you may gravitate towards the times where the models showed snow a few days out and were right or even the times where models didn't show snow and were wrong. The sample size was already small this winter so the busts that went the other way probably stuck out more, and everyone was irritated by the generally mundane pattern as is. I can think of times in the snowy 2013-14 and 2014-15 winters where the models had a good synoptic snow setup for me in Athens or Cleveland...or a good LES setup in Cleveland...a few days out that completely busted. But there were so many other cold shots and chances for snow that enough of them worked out, and some of them did go according to the models. Both winters were generally "good" region-wide (even if some of us OH posters got a little bitter after some individual busts), so we probably didn't care as much about the busts because if we like snow we'll probably gravitate towards the storms that worked out (and there were several of them) more-so than the ones that didn't. I don't pretend to be a psychologist, but in a slow season (be it winter or severe) all I can remember is event after event missing or not panning out, and in an active season all I remember is constantly having stuff to track with enough of it working out that my negative thoughts towards the models are sort of pushed away. Maybe that's just me but I don't think there's anything wrong with the models that wasn't already wrong with them.

[PGM]

the planet is warming, snow in the lower lakes will soon be a relic of the past

Lake effect areas will probably cash in on more snow because of warmer lake temperatures later into the winter.

[weathergy]

Ha - I hear you.  About 15 years ago, I ended up at a biker bar in Chicago around that time of night - so that is almost all too real. Still don't quite know how that happened... 

 

Anyway - think if it were the reverse situation.  For example - in October, many people would be tracking an extreme heat event, if it looked like temps may hit 90+.  So, why not track an April arctic outbreak?  For a moment, it looked like Chicago had a chance for a dusting - 1" of snow along the arctic front, which could have led to their 2nd lowest April temp on record...so it could have been an extreme event.

 

Either way, I still don't understand why people are posting in a winter thread if they don't like wintry weather.  There is a spring thread for that.  Look at the NE forum - they will probably start a 2016-17 winter thread sometime in April, like clockwork.  A lot of mets post in that thread; people don't post in that thread to troll.

 

We should embrace winter weenies on this board, as long as they add to the discussion.  We should also embrace hurricane and severe weather weenies and warministas, as long as they stick to the relevant threads and don't troll.

 

As many have pointed out, this winter was a disaster.  So, instead of wishing it would end, I was hoping for one last attempt for it to show its face. 

 

I would still be curious to hear opinions on why the model performance has been so bad this winter.  If you go back several years (2008-09, 2010-11, 2013-14, 2014-15 as some examples), there were significant snow events and arctic outbreaks that were forecasted well by models (in both magnitude and location) several days in advance.  Did the strong El Nino mess with the models??  The GFS and Euro don't have climo components, right?  So, you wouldn't think that a strong El Nino would have a negative impact on model performance, in and of itself.

Giving dissenting opinions with reasoning behind it does fall under the scope of a long range winter forecast thread even though you may not agree with the opinions because you want cold/snow but the deck is stacked against you. That's not to say it can't snow in April but even in BN to N seasons, I would be cautious to latch onto it over 84 hours out this time of year, and we're in an strong El Nino pattern that has been AN in temperature since at least December, so yeah, I don't blame anyone for not being too enthused about it right now.

 

Now as far as opinion goes, and I've stated this more than once this season, I feel many here in this subforum enjoy all seasons, and not just winter. This pattern isn't great for big dogs in Chicago or Detroit. But it certainly is for severe weather. I, for one, would rather see this cold go away because this pattern is awesome for severe weather. I will take a shower with a few rumbles of thunder over flurries or even a few inches of snow this time of year.

[SchaumburgStormer]

Giving dissenting opinions with reasoning behind it does fall under the scope of a long range winter forecast thread even though you may not agree with the opinions because you want cold/snow but the deck is stacked against you. That's not to say it can't snow in April but even in BN to N seasons, I would be cautious to latch onto it over 84 hours out this time of year, and we're in an strong El Nino pattern that has been AN in temperature since at least December, so yeah, I don't blame anyone for not being too enthused about it right now.

Now as far as opinion goes, and I've stated this more than once this season, I feel many here in this subforum enjoy all seasons, and not just winter. This pattern isn't great for big dogs in Chicago or Detroit. But it certainly is for severe weather. I, for one, would rather see this cold go away because this pattern is awesome for severe weather. I will take a shower with a few rumbles of thunder over flurries or even a few inches of snow this time of year.

Fully agree. Once the calendar turns to April, I am certainly in full blown severe mode. Will never say no to a big dog, but nuciance events past February aren't my thing.

[michsnowfreak]

Lake effect areas will probably cash in on more snow because of warmer lake temperatures later into the winter.

Snow in the lower lakes is most definitely increasing in recent years. Aleks post was likely troll bait as it's entering the boards quieter season.

[michsnowfreak]

While the magnitude of the cold blast has eased,.now the models want to aim several accumulating snow chances at the lower lakes from Saturday thru tuesday.

[beavis1729]

Giving dissenting opinions with reasoning behind it does fall under the scope of a long range winter forecast thread even though you may not agree with the opinions because you want cold/snow but the deck is stacked against you. That's not to say it can't snow in April but even in BN to N seasons, I would be cautious to latch onto it over 84 hours out this time of year, and we're in an strong El Nino pattern that has been AN in temperature since at least December, so yeah, I don't blame anyone for not being too enthused about it right now.

 

Now as far as opinion goes, and I've stated this more than once this season, I feel many here in this subforum enjoy all seasons, and not just winter. This pattern isn't great for big dogs in Chicago or Detroit. But it certainly is for severe weather. I, for one, would rather see this cold go away because this pattern is awesome for severe weather. I will take a shower with a few rumbles of thunder over flurries or even a few inches of snow this time of year.

You're missing the point.   I'm not trying to wishcast for wintry weather - it's not about that. 

 

The point is that, in a winter thread, posts should be about winter.  If no wintry weather is occurring and no wintry weather is expected in the long range, then the thread can be dormant.  There is a spring thread for that.  It's just annoying to be trolled and see posts about how "it's so windy or Location X's climo is horrible or it's too cloudy or there's too much freezing rain, it's too cold, Bo's climate in the UP is horrendous and unlivable, I hate sub-zero weather, etc."  All I hear is people complaining about winter. 

 

Of course, it's fine if someone doesn't like wintry weather - and everyone's opinions are welcomed on this board.  That is not the issue.  But people shouldn't post in a winter thread if they don't like winter.

 

Hoosier and others have often said that winter-type posts are frowned upon in the spring thread...so why not the reverse??  I just don't get it.

 

If I go into a hurricane thread, I expect to see posts about hurricanes, even if there aren't any imminent hurricanes occurring.  In that thread, you can talk about hurricane climatology, hurricane forecasting techniques, the Saffir-Simpson scale, hurricane safety/preparation, etc...but I wouldn't go into a hurricane thread to post about snow on top of a random mountain in Europe.  That is all I'm saying.

 

Carry on.

[michsnowfreak]

Hoosier and others have often said that winter-type posts are frowned upon in the spring thread...so why not the reverse??  I just don't get it.

 

Agree!

[snowstormcanuck]

Snow in the lower lakes is most definitely increasing in recent years. Aleks post was likely troll bait as it's entering the boards quieter season.

 

Has it? I'm genuinely curious. I know you've locally been in a perpetual snow-globe the last 10 years but what about ORD, MKE, CLE, etc. Any info on whether they've been as consistently snowy as DTW.

[michsnowfreak]

Has it? I'm genuinely curious. I know you've locally been in a perpetual snow-globe the last 10 years but what about ORD, MKE, CLE, etc. Any info on whether they've been as consistently snowy as DTW.

ORD yes. Not sure about CLE and MKE. Will take a peak in the next few days and let you know!

[SpartyOn]

You're missing the point. I'm not trying to wishcast for wintry weather - it's not about that.

The point is that, in a winter thread, posts should be about winter. If no wintry weather is occurring and no wintry weather is expected in the long range, then the thread can be dormant. There is a spring thread for that. It's just annoying to be trolled and see posts about how "it's so windy or Location X's climo is horrible or it's too cloudy or there's too much freezing rain, it's too cold, Bo's climate in the UP is horrendous and unlivable, I hate sub-zero weather, etc." All I hear is people complaining about winter.

Of course, it's fine if someone doesn't like wintry weather - and everyone's opinions are welcomed on this board. That is not the issue. But people shouldn't post in a winter thread if they don't like winter.

Hoosier and others have often said that winter-type posts are frowned upon in the spring thread...so why not the reverse?? I just don't get it.

If I go into a hurricane thread, I expect to see posts about hurricanes, even if there aren't any imminent hurricanes occurring. In that thread, you can talk about hurricane climatology, hurricane forecasting techniques, the Saffir-Simpson scale, hurricane safety/preparation, etc...but I wouldn't go into a hurricane thread to post about snow on top of a random mountain in Europe. That is all I'm saying.

Carry on.

Massive derailment. I think if there was an actual believable threat it would have been taken seriously.

[buckeye]

Has it? I'm genuinely curious. I know you've locally been in a perpetual snow-globe the last 10 years but what about ORD, MKE, CLE, etc. Any info on whether they've been as consistently snowy as DTW.

 

If CLE is any indication than the 'snow globe' for the lower lakes has been much more localized than what is being portrayed.   It would be interesting to see though.   It seeems there's been an axis from Chicago to DTW where they've experienced a lucky streak much in the way the i-70 corridor from IND to CMH has been kicked in the teeth (relative to the surrounding areas over the last few winters).  

 

I realize some will point out that we received above avg snowfall the last two winters, however relative to the percent of positive departures across the entire lakes and OV region in general, we haven't done nearly as well.   This winter was a classic example of that missing big dogs to our north and south.   

 

An interesting note.  DC has beat us in snowfall both this winter and last.  In fact I believe DC has beat DTW and Chicago this winter.

Yea, I know...it was one event...but I'd gladly take a 3' single event in January over the nickles and pennies we received throughout the winter.

 

Hoping the worm finally turns....

[Trent]

CLE is certainly snowier than it was in the 1970s or 1980s, but snowfall appeared to reach a peak in the late 90s and early 2000s here. The past 10 years averaged about 63" at CLE. Between 1998/99 and 2008/2009 the average was 78".

The last 5 years only averaged about 54" at CLE, so locally the last 5 years haven't been that snowy compared to the prior 40 years.

[wisconsinwx]

Milwaukee has been about the same, maybe a tad snowier in the last couple decades thanks to winters like 07-08. Certainly a warming trend in winters doesn't guarantee a decrease in snow.

[A-L-E-K]

 Certainly a warming trend in winters doesn't guarantee a decrease in snow.

 

it will eventually

[Trent]

Has it? I'm genuinely curious. I know you've locally been in a perpetual snow-globe the last 10 years but what about ORD, MKE, CLE, etc. Any info on whether they've been as consistently snowy as DTW.

As I posted above for CLE, short term, meaning the last 5 years, on average have been much less snowy than long term. If you expand that to 10 years, it improves, but still not as snowy as late 90s and early 2000s. Not sure you can draw many conclusions from that though. It does seem that snowfall peaked here a decade ago.

CLE being at the very southern edge of the Great Lakes is the most susceptible to a warming trend. It's not like MQT or Gaylord which can afford to warm a bit and still be "cold".

[snowcaine]

If CLE is any indication than the 'snow globe' for the lower lakes has been much more localized than what is being portrayed.   It would be interesting to see though.   It seeems there's been an axis from Chicago to DTW where they've experienced a lucky streak much in the way the i-70 corridor from IND to CMH has been kicked in the teeth (relative to the surrounding areas over the last few winters).  

 

I realize some will point out that we received above avg snowfall the last two winters, however relative to the percent of positive departures across the entire lakes and OV region in general, we haven't done nearly as well.   This winter was a classic example of that missing big dogs to our north and south.   

 

An interesting note.  DC has beat us in snowfall both this winter and last.  In fact I believe DC has beat DTW and Chicago this winter.

Yea, I know...it was one event...but I'd gladly take a 3' single event in January over the nickles and pennies we received throughout the winter.

 

Hoping the worm finally turns....

 

The bold rings true for Toronto as well.

[michsnowfreak]

If CLE is any indication than the 'snow globe' for the lower lakes has been much more localized than what is being portrayed.   It would be interesting to see though.   It seeems there's been an axis from Chicago to DTW where they've experienced a lucky streak much in the way the i-70 corridor from IND to CMH has been kicked in the teeth (relative to the surrounding areas over the last few winters).  

 

I realize some will point out that we received above avg snowfall the last two winters, however relative to the percent of positive departures across the entire lakes and OV region in general, we haven't done nearly as well.   This winter was a classic example of that missing big dogs to our north and south.   

 

An interesting note.  DC has beat us in snowfall both this winter and last.  In fact I believe DC has beat DTW and Chicago this winter.

Yea, I know...it was one event...but I'd gladly take a 3' single event in January over the nickles and pennies we received throughout the winter.

 

Hoping the worm finally turns....

DTW saw about 12" more snow than DC this winter, and ORD saw about 8" more.

[michsnowfreak]

Milwaukee has been about the same, maybe a tad snowier in the last couple decades thanks to winters like 07-08. Certainly a warming trend in winters doesn't guarantee a decrease in snow.

You are absolutely right, though I will believe a warming trend in winters locally when I see it. Snowfall is increasing, DJF temps are not (again, talking here).

[Jonger]

You are absolutely right, though I will believe a warming trend in winters locally when I see it. Snowfall is increasing, DJF temps are not (again, talking here).

 

It all boils down to the pattern, not a degree or two Fahrenheit.

 

Troughs = good winter.

 

Ridges & zonal flow = Bad winter.

[Geos]

You are absolutely right, though I will believe a warming trend in winters locally when I see it. Snowfall is increasing, DJF temps are not (again, talking here).

 

Same here. When I was growing up in the 90s, I remember a couple snowy winters, but nothing like that last 12 years or so. The majority of winters here in the last 15 even have been snowier than normal. Average snowfall is running at 56.5" right now; not including this winter ending.

 

More latent heat in the atmosphere will mean more water vapor and thus more clouds in the atmosphere. Have seen some very wet summers here in the last decade as well to show for it.

[buckeye]

DTW saw about 12" more snow than DC this winter, and ORD saw about 8" more.

 

lol....if you go by DCA which only recorded 22" for that massive January snow storm.  Pretty much every met and weenie called BS on that measurement.

 

IAD and BWI recorded 34 and 35 respectively.    

[A-L-E-K]

totals aside, i'll take 2'+ in one event over 60" of nickle and dime garbage every day

[osubrett2]

totals aside, i'll take 2'+ in one event over 60" of nickle and dime garbage every day

 

Ditto. Give me big dogs, which down here are 6"+ (should be 4"+ since it's so hard to even get close to 6") or give me sun and 40s/50s in winter.

 

As far as the medium range goes, the GFS is unrelenting. Brings in cold fronts across all of the lakes down into the OV Saturday/Sunday, Monday, and now next Thursday.

[buckeye]

totals aside, i'll take 2'+ in one event over 60" of nickle and dime garbage every day

 

absolutely.   The other cool aspect of that storm for those guys was the unwavering model agreement and consistency leading up to it.  They had about 5 days of consistent model runs showing a historic storm.  If I recall correctly, the euro had only one major hiccup where it took the storm way south at one point but corrected back afterward.  

 

Long model lead times on big dogs NEVER happen here (i-70 corridor).  Usually our big dogs don't start showing up or coming together in the modeling until 2-3 days out, (after they've already been modeled as cutters, scrapers, or noreasters).

[buckeye]

 

 

As far as the medium range goes, the GFS is unrelenting. Brings in cold fronts across all of the lakes down into the OV Saturday/Sunday, Monday, and now next Thursday.

 

the extended is a nightmare for those of us excited about spring being in front of us and winter behind us.

[Stebo]

totals aside, i'll take 2'+ in one event over 60" of nickle and dime garbage every day

God yes

[Stebo]

lol....if you go by DCA which only recorded 22" for that massive January snow storm.  Pretty much every met and weenie called BS on that measurement.

 

IAD and BWI recorded 34 and 35 respectively.    

I was one of those mets calling it out, there were so many discrepancies with their totals with that event, it was a bad look.

[michsnowfreak]

lol....if you go by DCA which only recorded 22" for that massive January snow storm. Pretty much every met and weenie called BS on that measurement.

IAD and BWI recorded 34 and 35 respectively.

DCA is the official site for dc. BWI is a known inflator, DCA lowballer. Ive heard iad inflates too, tho much more accurate than dca. Still iad is a snowy location in that region. It is like me using white Lake (dtx) for detroit instead of dtw, a totally unfair comparison.

Basically it's unfair to use either number for dc. The dca number never should have stood. Shame on the local mets for not doing quality control like they did for BWI in years past (in that case it was lowering totals)

Totals this winter:

DCA 22.2" (17.8 from the storm)

IAD 34.3" (29.3 from the storm)

DTW 34.0"

DTX 64.1"

This is the largest gap between dtw and dtx in some time. Really a tale of a mild winter. DTW and even TOL beat DTX in 2013-14. Average wise dtx probably averages 15"-18" more than dtw.