daddylonglegs Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 I hope so. GFS still paints mid teens here. Dew points still look subzero. I was looking at April 4th, 1995 in MSP and the dew point that day was -4F... very similar to what its showing this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 12z EURO wasn't quite as cold, but still highs in the 20s this far south. It has a upper Midwest snowstorm at Day 9-10. DLL you would be in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 12z EURO wasn't quite as cold, but still highs in the 20s this far south. It has a upper Midwest snowstorm at Day 9-10. DLL you would be in it. Yum...April snow... Let that thing recurve to Fargo. Didn't the Euro look like it pushed that cold more SE then south... Seem like it blasted NY and areas over there even more so then around here. I'm shooting for a low of 20F here...locally i stay a little warmer then areas around here (Sparta/etc). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 Yeah, looks like the cold shot will be less intense and will focus more on New England instead of the Midwest. In other words, the angle of the cold is wrong, like I mentioned a few days ago. Another in a long line of less extreme cold or snow solutions as time passes...the theme of this winter. And, another atrocious model performance...it is really comical at this point. Not much more to say. Maybe there will be a study done to figure out why this has occurred so much this winter. Remember late February and last week, when the Euro and other models showed 12-18"+ of snow for N IL and S WI ...and we ended up with a dusting in both cases?? It would be nice if a cold or snow event actually trended more severe/extreme as the event got closer...just once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 The snow cover over Southern Canada is actually quite a bit weaker than many recent years. It is amazing to me how cold the low levels can get and the surface stays so warm in comparison. Looks ripe for white out snow squalls in the lakes. Unless the models keep pushing it more NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 18z GFS looks like it bumped temps a solid 5F here...this may be a run of the mill cold shot when its all said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 18z GFS looks like it bumped temps a solid 5F here...this may be a run of the mill cold shot when its all said and done.Yep, and then heats right back up. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 Ultimately may not be record breaking cold but I suspect it won't be run of the mill either. Feels like we've been tracking it forever but it's still like a week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 Ultimately may not be record breaking cold but I suspect it won't be run of the mill either. Feels like we've been tracking it forever but it's still like a week out. Slowly drfiting further and further NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 It would be nice if a cold or snow event actually trended more severe/extreme as the event got closer...just once. It happened constantly in 2013-14 and frequently in 2014-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 Ultimately may not be record breaking cold but I suspect it won't be run of the mill either. Feels like we've been tracking it forever but it's still like a week out.Far from run of the mill. Gfs verbatim is record cold max here for sunday...has been modeled as such for days..and as you said still a week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 Slowly drfiting further and further NE At this rate many of us will see a high on Sunday in the 40s. As expected and par for the corse when tracking temps 10 days out. Not to mention its April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 The big cold blast is now gone(for those of us on the west side of the subforum) from tonight's gfs and euro. A couple days ago the euro had teens for a low and maybe 30 for a high on Sunday. Now it has 60s. There's still time to change back somewhat, but it looks like the models really blew it. As things stand now, Friday will be our coldest day with highs in the low to mid 40s and a good nw wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 The big cold blast is now gone(for those of us on the west side of the subforum) from tonight's gfs and euro. A couple days ago the euro had teens for a low and maybe 30 for a high on Sunday. Now it has 60s. There's still time to change back somewhat, but it looks like the models really blew it. As things stand now, Friday will be our coldest day with highs in the low to mid 40s and a good nw wind. Stebo called it. Will we ever switch to a Spring Medium-Long Range? Sorry if this an obvious question, I joined right before winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 arctic outbreak bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 arctic outbreak bust Being it was alway just a fantasy makes this 'bust' humorous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 Being it was alway just a fantasy makes this 'bust' humorous. ??? Several models and their ensembles had a strong and consistent signal for a significant arctic outbreak, about 7-10 days out. Yes, it was pretty far out in time...but there was good model agreement until the past 36-48 hours. This was not just a "fantasy"; it was a horrible model bust. It continues the horrendous model performance throughout this "winter". I can't tell you how many times this has occurred for various cold/snow events. Having an strong El Nino winter is bad enough...but then the atrocius model performance and the persistent warm mongers make it even worse. I've lost the words to describe what a pathetic winter this has been, on every possible level. This board used to embrace winter...especially in a "Winter medium-long range discussion" thread. I don't go into a hurricane thread and complain about how annoying and destructive hurricanes are. If I did this, I would be banned or pushed out of the thread...which I should be. I know some people may get tired of winter by Feb/March...but this thread is not the place for it. You have 8 months during the year to enjoy mild/warm/hot weather. I don't go into summer threads and complain about how hot if feels when it's 85 and humid. It's common courtesy. I just don't get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 Being it was alway just a fantasy makes this 'bust' humorous. The March 24th storm hit within 100 miles as it was depicted 10 days before it hit. Patterns are a bit different, but thinking this is a 2005 model situation in 2016, you're wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 Stebo called it. Will we ever switch to a Spring Medium-Long Range? Sorry if this an obvious question, I joined right before winter. Easy call to make, models were showing historic cold coming down. Just played the odds that it wouldn't end up being that strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 It's spring. Anyone rooting for a severe cold snap with no snow in spring should expect push back from those of us sick and tired of this crap pattern and crap winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 It's spring. Anyone rooting for a severe cold snap with no snow in spring should expect push back from those of us sick and tired of this crap pattern and crap winter. I'm not rooting for cold, unless it comes with something I can use. Like last Friday when I had a f-cking blast with my buddies up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 It's spring. Anyone rooting for a severe cold snap with no snow in spring should expect push back from those of us sick and tired of this crap pattern and crap winter. At this point it's almost an insult for us to get a severe cold blast after a garbage winter. I'm all for warm the rest of the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 We will probably still see well below normal temps here, but the overall changing look of the cold shot, especially to the west, is something considering the model agreement far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 Ultimately may not be record breaking cold but I suspect it won't be run of the mill either. Feels like we've been tracking it forever but it's still like a week out. Right now there really isn't even an arctic shot South of i80. Down here along i70 the cold shot helps is transfor transition from average temps to well above to near record. Huge model busy thanks to over doing the -epo big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 ??? Several models and their ensembles had a strong and consistent signal for a significant arctic outbreak, about 7-10 days out. Yes, it was pretty far out in time...but there was good model agreement until the past 36-48 hours. This was not just a "fantasy"; it was a horrible model bust. It continues the horrendous model performance throughout this "winter". I can't tell you how many times this has occurred for various cold/snow events. Having an strong El Nino winter is bad enough...but then the atrocius model performance and the persistent warm mongers make it even worse. I've lost the words to describe what a pathetic winter this has been, on every possible level. This board used to embrace winter...especially in a "Winter medium-long range discussion" thread. I don't go into a hurricane thread and complain about how annoying and destructive hurricanes are. If I did this, I would be banned or pushed out of the thread...which I should be. I know some people may get tired of winter by Feb/March...but this thread is not the place for it. You have 8 months during the year to enjoy mild/warm/hot weather. I don't go into summer threads and complain about how hot if feels when it's 85 and humid. It's common courtesy. I just don't get it. Tracking an arctic outbreak in April is like trolling chicks at a biker bar at the 3am last call. Failure = Win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 ??? Several models and their ensembles had a strong and consistent signal for a significant arctic outbreak, about 7-10 days out. Yes, it was pretty far out in time...but there was good model agreement until the past 36-48 hours. This was not just a "fantasy"; it was a horrible model bust. It continues the horrendous model performance throughout this "winter". I can't tell you how many times this has occurred for various cold/snow events. Having an strong El Nino winter is bad enough...but then the atrocius model performance and the persistent warm mongers make it even worse. I've lost the words to describe what a pathetic winter this has been, on every possible level. This board used to embrace winter...especially in a "Winter medium-long range discussion" thread. I don't go into a hurricane thread and complain about how annoying and destructive hurricanes are. If I did this, I would be banned or pushed out of the thread...which I should be. I know some people may get tired of winter by Feb/March...but this thread is not the place for it. You have 8 months during the year to enjoy mild/warm/hot weather. I don't go into summer threads and complain about how hot if feels when it's 85 and humid. It's common courtesy. I just don't get it. Strong el Ninos typically suck. Every winter is not going to have above normal snow. I'm telling you this and trust me...I probably love winter more than you. In hindsight though, this winter was not as bad as most strong ninos. Our region is in a snowy cycle and with a nina next winter, better times likely lie ahead, once again, after a 1 year hiatus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 Strong el Ninos typically suck. Every winter is not going to have above normal snow. I'm telling you this and trust me...I probably love winter more than you. In hindsight though, this winter was not as bad as most strong ninos. Our region is in a snowy cycle and with a nina next winter, better times likely lie ahead, once again, after a 1 year hiatus. Just give me a trough... lots and lots of troughs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 the planet is warming, snow in the lower lakes will soon be a relic of the past Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 Tracking an arctic outbreak in April is like trolling chicks at a biker bar at the 3am last call. Failure = Win. Ha - I hear you. About 15 years ago, I ended up at a biker bar in Chicago around that time of night - so that is almost all too real. Still don't quite know how that happened... Anyway - think if it were the reverse situation. For example - in October, many people would be tracking an extreme heat event, if it looked like temps may hit 90+. So, why not track an April arctic outbreak? For a moment, it looked like Chicago had a chance for a dusting - 1" of snow along the arctic front, which could have led to their 2nd lowest April temp on record...so it could have been an extreme event. Either way, I still don't understand why people are posting in a winter thread if they don't like wintry weather. There is a spring thread for that. Look at the NE forum - they will probably start a 2016-17 winter thread sometime in April, like clockwork. A lot of mets post in that thread; people don't post in that thread to troll. We should embrace winter weenies on this board, as long as they add to the discussion. We should also embrace hurricane and severe weather weenies and warministas, as long as they stick to the relevant threads and don't troll. As many have pointed out, this winter was a disaster. So, instead of wishing it would end, I was hoping for one last attempt for it to show its face. I would still be curious to hear opinions on why the model performance has been so bad this winter. If you go back several years (2008-09, 2010-11, 2013-14, 2014-15 as some examples), there were significant snow events and arctic outbreaks that were forecasted well by models (in both magnitude and location) several days in advance. Did the strong El Nino mess with the models?? The GFS and Euro don't have climo components, right? So, you wouldn't think that a strong El Nino would have a negative impact on model performance, in and of itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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