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Winter 2015-16 Medium-Long Range Discussion

OHweather

By OHweather,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

It only takes one night of a hard freeze (and this would be much colder than just a borderline hard freeze in a lot of areas verbatim) to kill anything sensitive. I'll be in Cleveland next weekend so I wouldn't mind some LES, but where was this 3 months ago??

This winter was certainly not without potent cold snaps, they just didn't last...and this will be the same. Although anamolous wise this brief but insane April cold snap has potential to be the most extreme.

At Detroit the winters coldest daily temp departure was -20F on Feb 13th.

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sokolow

sokolow

Posted
Posted

Straight over the pole.

That was the 18z, now the 0z ...

 

I can't imagine what this cold will be like if a clipper decides to come down as well.

 

0z just as cold.

 

gfs_T2m_namer_35.png

Welp that'll be unpleasant for being out in the field

 

I'm still thankful for the dinner tab, that was very appreciated.

It was my pleasure! Lots of fun meeting you all :]
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SpartyOn

SpartyOn

Posted
Posted

This winter was certainly not without potent cold snaps, they just didn't last...and this will be the same. Although anamolous wise this brief but insane April cold snap has potential to be the most extreme.

At Detroit the winters coldest daily temp departure was -20F on Feb 13th.

That's IF this cold is even close to what's being modeled.

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Geos

Geos

Posted
Posted

At least the cold 850's won't translate to something we'd see in winter because.. it's April. Coldest it gets on the Euro

 

Almost single digits into DLL backyard - it's pretty darn cold! Colder than the 0z run. EUROwx maps translate the temps down a few degrees.

I know DLL is worried about his fruit trees. 

Luckily around here locally nothing has bloomed or heavily budded yet.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

Will roll out more info as this gets closer and if it's still looking intense but looked up some stats for Chicago and the last time there was an April high temp in the 20s was all the way back in 1899.  Even 1982 wasn't able to do it as the coldest max temp then was 31 degrees. 

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weatherbo

weatherbo

Posted
Posted

I'm game... looks interesting.

 

NEXT WEEKEND A STRONG CLIPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH UPPER GREAT
LOWERING 85H TEMPS DOWN TO -20 TO -25C BY LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THIS WILL SET STAGE FOR A HYBRID KIND OF LAKE EFFECT SCENARIO AS
DAYTIME HEATING DISRUPTS LES PROCESSES AND LEADS TO WIDESPREAD
VIGOROUS DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHSN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA UNDER DEEP
CYCLONIC FLOW AND VERY COLD AIR ALOFT (500MB TEMPS -40 TO -45C).

 

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hawkeye_wx

hawkeye_wx

Posted
Posted

That's some pretty good cold Sunday morning.  I'll certainly have to cover some budding plants.  Many daffodils should be blooming with the mild week coming up.  However, the latest models do not have extended cold.  The euro has it 54 here Saturday ahead of the front, then we get real cold Sunday, but it's already pulling away by Monday.

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daddylonglegs

daddylonglegs

Posted
Posted

That's some pretty good cold Sunday morning.  I'll certainly have to cover some budding plants.  Many daffodils should be blooming with the mild week coming up.  However, the latest models do not have extended cold.  The euro has it 54 here Saturday ahead of the front, then we get real cold Sunday, but it's already pulling away by Monday.

Short and sweet...La Crosse added this

 

FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BOTH THE OPERATIONAL 26.12Z ECMWF AND

GFS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW THAT AN ANOMALOUS COLD AIR MASS WILL

SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER THERE IS CONCERN

THAT THESE MODELS MIGHT BE TOO COLD. LOOKING AT THE ECMWF BOX AND

WHISKER DIAGRAMS...THERE CONTINUES TO BE WIDE TEMPERATURES

DIFFERENCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. FOR EXAMPLE AT KLSE...THERE IS

23 DEGREE TEMPERATURE /RANGING FROM 35 TO 58F/ WITH THE HIGHS ON

SATURDAY.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

LOT had some brief comments

LOOKING AT IT FROM AN ENSEMBLE PERSPECTIVE  

THOUGH...FAIRLY PRONOUNCED ANOMALIES FOR BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND  

TEMPERATURES ARE SHOWING UP IN THE NAEFS...IN FACT INTO THE LOWEST  

PERCENTILE FOR 850MB TEMPERATURES THIS TIME OF YEAR ON NEXT  

SUNDAY. THIS IS AT THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST BUT IF IT WERE TO  

PAN OUT...COULD HAVE HIGHS NEXT SUNDAY OR SO STRUGGLING TO REACH  

30 DEGREES /WHICH WOULD BE AT RECORD LOW MAX TERRITORY/.  

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OHweather

OHweather

Posted
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I'm game... looks interesting.

NEXT WEEKEND A STRONG CLIPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH UPPER GREAT

LOWERING 85H TEMPS DOWN TO -20 TO -25C BY LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THIS WILL SET STAGE FOR A HYBRID KIND OF LAKE EFFECT SCENARIO AS

DAYTIME HEATING DISRUPTS LES PROCESSES AND LEADS TO WIDESPREAD

VIGOROUS DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHSN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA UNDER DEEP

CYCLONIC FLOW AND VERY COLD AIR ALOFT (500MB TEMPS -40 TO -45C).

 

This could be a very interesting event downwind of the lakes, as a PV dipping that far south is about the best setup you can get for LES anytime of year. Although this won't have the duration of the April 07 event, the op models have mid-level temps that are a few degrees C colder than that event and imply very strong instability...so the lakes could spit fire for a day or two. Ensemble spread is still large for the southern lakes so uncertainty is higher, but you look solid downwind of Superior.

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

Brief but potential record April cold snap next weekend. Will it moderate as it gets closer? Certainly possible, but if not a high in the 20s would be decently likely on Sunday, April 3rd.

 

How rare is it to have a high in the 20s in April in Detroit?  Records started in 1874, so there have been 4,260 April calendar days since weather records began, and only 11 of them failed to hit 30F. Even more impressive, it has only happened 5 times since 1900!

 

Chronological timeline of sub-30F high temps in April at Detroit

 

The most impressive was probably Apr 16-17, 1875 (after a brutal winter no less), pushing some 35F below normal. But the record coldest high is 24F on Apr 13, 1950.

 

Apr 05, 1874: 29F

 

Apr 16, 1875: 25F

Apr 17, 1875: 26F

 

Apr 01, 1881: 28F

 

Apr 01, 1899: 29F

Apr 02, 1899: 29F

 

Apr 01, 1911: 27F

 

Apr 12, 1940: 28F

 

Apr 13, 1950: 24F

 

Apr 07, 1972: 25F

 

Apr 06, 1982: 27F

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daddylonglegs

daddylonglegs

Posted
Posted

Brief but potential record April cold snap next weekend. Will it moderate as it gets closer? Certainly possible, but if not a high in the 20s would be decently likely on Sunday, April 3rd.

 

How rare is it to have a high in the 20s in April in Detroit?  Records started in 1874, so there have been 4,260 April calendar days since weather records began, and only 11 of them failed to hit 30F. Even more impressive, it has only happened 5 times since 1900!

 

Chronological timeline of sub-30F high temps in April at Detroit

 

The most impressive was probably Apr 16-17, 1875 (after a brutal winter no less), pushing some 35F below normal. But the record coldest high is 24F on Apr 13, 1950.

 

Apr 05, 1874: 29F

 

Apr 16, 1875: 25F

Apr 17, 1875: 26F

 

Apr 01, 1881: 28F

 

Apr 01, 1899: 29F

Apr 02, 1899: 29F

 

Apr 01, 1911: 27F

 

Apr 12, 1940: 28F

 

Apr 13, 1950: 24F

 

Apr 07, 1972: 25F

 

Apr 06, 1982: 27F

Are these temps even possible with no snow?

 

dfkgoh.jpg

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

Are these temps even possible with no snow?

 

dfkgoh.jpg

I suppose anything is possible haha. There may be some snow, the temps may not be as extreme as shown...but one things near certain: an April cold snap with a very very hard freeze is on its way.

 

As for snow, heres what the snow situation looked like during those anamalously cold April days.

 

Apr 05, 1874: 29F - 0.6" fell this day, so assumably thats what was on the ground. the only meas snow of Apr.

 

Apr 16, 1875: 25F - trace of snow fell, no meas snow in days prior, so assumably bare ground.

Apr 17, 1875: 26F - trace of snow fell

 

Apr 01, 1881: 28F - 2.8" snow fell, Id estimate 10" on the ground, harsh blizzard Mar 30-31 hit the midwest

 

Apr 01, 1899: 29F - 0.1" snow fell, Id estimate several inches still on the ground from late March snows.

Apr 02, 1899: 29F - trace snow fell, Id estimate several inches still on the ground from late March snows.

 

Apr 01, 1911: 27F - trace of snow fell, trace on the ground

 

Apr 12, 1940: 28F - 0.9" snow fell the day before, this was on the ground in am but 7pm depth (they used pm then) was a T

 

Apr 13, 1950: 24F - trace of snow fell, trace on the ground from the 0.1" that fell the day before

 

Apr 07, 1972: 25F - trace of snow fell, trace on the ground from the 0.7" that fell the day before

 

Apr 06, 1982: 27F - 2.4" snow fell, tail end of the 7.4" snowstorm on the 5/6th. 7am depth was 6".

 

 

Another interesting way to look at things....while some last spits of snow are very common in April, to get a nice blanketed landscape (1"+ cover) is more rare. Since 1911, Detroit has had a grand total of 50 days in April with 1"+ snow on the ground...yet as you can see above, during the coldest of the cold it is certainly possible to have very anomalous temps with no meaningful snowcover. Only 4 of the 11 above days had more than an inch on the ground.

 

With the absence of lakes to boost snowfall, and being further north, Im sure La Crosse data would show even more instances of April cold with no snow.

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Powerball

Powerball

Posted
Posted

If you believe the Euro some of us in MN/WI will see snow late next week before the cold hits.

 

It's annoying that a cold blast well into Spring may allow us to still eek out a total seasonal snowfall around average (between the arctic front snows, potential clippers and LES).

 

In hindsight, this is locally going to be a textbook stat-padding winter if I ever saw one.

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daddylonglegs

daddylonglegs

Posted
Posted

As mentioned earlier in this thread...dewpoints look to go subzero at 186hrs on the 0z GFS...still maintains the same cold.   Wonder how accurate those dews will be...its been pretty wet around here lately.

 

I'll do some more digging tomorrow for La Crosse...the coldest high temp for April were

 

April 1st, 1899 ...22F 

April 16th, 1875 ...23F

 

most recent was April 4th, 1995 ...28F

 

Record min temps for April for LSE

2ch9llc.jpg

 

2 single digit readings..yikes

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hlcater

hlcater

Posted
Posted

For my area, it looks as if the cold is a glancing blow. whereas the other day it looked like we were going to have highs below freezing for several days with lows in the single digits(lol) and now it has moderated to 1 day at 30 degrees for a high and 20s for the lows on the GFS at least. Can we continue this trend and keep the highs above freezing?

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