Stebo Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 The good thing once you get into April is that it's pretty difficult to lock in true winter type cold for more than like 3-5 days, especially at our latitude...not talking about just being below average as there's a difference between that and winter type cold. Exactly, which is why I don't give a damn what the models are showing at this junction because it will moderate as we get closer and will last a shorter period of time. Case in point the last cold snap that was supposed to crush the entire area. It lasted 2 days max before we were near normal again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 Exactly, which is why I don't give a damn what the models are showing at this junction because it will moderate as we get closer and will last a shorter period of time. Case in point the last cold snap that was supposed to crush the entire area. It lasted 2 days max before we were near normal again. Or its a repeat of April 1982.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 April 1982 is the modern benchmark for April cold but even that lasted about a week before warming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 Hahaha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 The GFS 2m temp progs are ugly around 9-10 days. The good news is that it really can't get much worse so there's plenty of room for improvement. Key in realizing the cold is the big ridge/block progged to occur into Alaska/western Canada. Still several days before that's progged to occur but models have been pretty consistent in the general idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 Another snowstorm a week from now for Iowa and Wisconsin on the 18z GFS. Models have been really hammering this idea of a cold open to April. -EPO is forecast to plunge, along with a -WPO. ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png Yeah can't get much worse then that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 Another snowstorm a week from now for Iowa and Wisconsin on the 18z GFS. Models have been really hammering this idea of a cold open to April. -EPO is forecast to plunge, along with a -WPO. ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png Yeah can't get much worse then that! Thank god a quick recovery of both though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 25, 2016 Share Posted March 25, 2016 suicide booth.gif why does this keep happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 25, 2016 Share Posted March 25, 2016 12z GFS with one of its more brutal runs yet. 850 mb temps bottom out around -20C to -22C in Chicago. IF that were to verify, you'd be talking about highs struggling to reach the mid 20s (near record low maximum territory for April), and that assumes there's plenty of sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 25, 2016 Share Posted March 25, 2016 Pay back for the mild December I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted March 25, 2016 Share Posted March 25, 2016 why would anyone want that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 25, 2016 Share Posted March 25, 2016 some people are into dry cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted March 25, 2016 Share Posted March 25, 2016 Nobody wants cold in April but we know the drill and deal with it and its normally short lived cool downs anyways. To myself its not perfect here but it sure beats living where its long swampy summers down south with 90+ degree days and humid 80% of the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 25, 2016 Share Posted March 25, 2016 some people are into dry cold Speaking of dry, the other impressive thing about the 12z GFS is the wide area of dewpoints below 0F away from the lakes. That is practically unheard of in early April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 25, 2016 Share Posted March 25, 2016 tell me about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 25, 2016 Share Posted March 25, 2016 Anything blooming will be dead if that happens. What a crap spring. I might try to cover some trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 25, 2016 Share Posted March 25, 2016 Anything blooming will be dead if that happens. What a crap spring. I might try to cover some trees. Yeah, you have fruit trees I know. Thank goodness nothing but Crocuses have bloomed here. Daffodils have sprouted, but not bloomed. EURO drops low temperatures to the mid teens in your area for Day 9 and 10. Single digits just north of MSP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 25, 2016 Share Posted March 25, 2016 That is some historic cold long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 25, 2016 Share Posted March 25, 2016 That is some historic cold long range. What kind of temperatures would that translate to at the surface? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binovc Posted March 26, 2016 Share Posted March 26, 2016 The EURO gives GRR a high of 25F on April 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 26, 2016 Share Posted March 26, 2016 At least the worst looks to stay to me north and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 26, 2016 Share Posted March 26, 2016 The EURO gives GRR a high of 25F on April 4Horrors, would kill pretty much anything blooming and possibly anything budding especially if it is well into the teens at night. No benefit for this to come now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 26, 2016 Share Posted March 26, 2016 The 18z GFS was a touch...colder... Jesus #$#$#... My apricots are swollen right now..the plums are too..peaches are starting..the apples/pears would *probably* be ok... The warmth this next week is not a good thing. Any more movement (of the buds) and it just makes it worse. I'll build structures around some trees...probably run some lights to keep some stuff warm. Not sure where the fruits trees are in Michigan, but that is where the real damage can be done (see April 2012). NWS MSP: THE CFS AND OTHER LONG RANGE PROGS SUGGEST APRIL COMES IN LIKE ALION WITH RESPECT TO COLD. THERE ARE IMPRESSIVE TEMPERATUREDEPARTURES AT 850MB AS A COLD CANADIAN AIR MASS MAKES ITS WAY INTOMN/WI THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL. COULD WE SEE A COUPLE DAYS WITHHIGHS IN THE 20S? THAT IS TOUGH TO DO WITH NO SNOW COVER IN APRIL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted March 26, 2016 Share Posted March 26, 2016 Like MPX said, this would be pretty remarkable for early April with no snow on the ground. 2m dewpoints in the negative teens. I guess I won't be planting the garden anytime soon. All of that purple and pink hurts my eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 26, 2016 Share Posted March 26, 2016 Straight over the pole. That was the 18z, now the 0z ... I can't imagine what this cold will be like if a clipper decides to come down as well. 0z just as cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 26, 2016 Share Posted March 26, 2016 Hopefully I can get some lake effect snow from that cold coming over the lakes. Pretty much the only type of snow I've had all winter. Grumble grumble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted March 26, 2016 Share Posted March 26, 2016 Would it be that bad if it only took hold for a day or two? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 26, 2016 Author Share Posted March 26, 2016 Would it be that bad if it only took hold for a day or two?It only takes one night of a hard freeze (and this would be much colder than just a borderline hard freeze in a lot of areas verbatim) to kill anything sensitive. I'll be in Cleveland next weekend so I wouldn't mind some LES, but where was this 3 months ago?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 26, 2016 Share Posted March 26, 2016 Most of the new buds around here are on native trees. These trees can easily handle cold snaps and are resilient. The fruit trees havnt even begun to flower or bud in some cases. No worries for the most part. Pretty much a lock that the advertised cold snap will be much warmer than currently modeled. There is also no lake ice or snow pack and it's worth noting, we have been busting low on temps all month. I would suspect that trend continues into early April, especially under a vibrant spring sun angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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