UMB WX Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 Less severe weather is a huge benefit, since there is zero benefit to severe weather. I disagree with this, it allows for many jobs to be filled with respect to clean up and so forth. Before this turns into something where I am wishing death on people via severe weather. If all the severe weather hit in the middle of nowhere I would be happy as a clam. But to say there is zero benefit to severe weather is a bit off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 This would be a nasty April Fool's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wegoweather Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 I disagree with this, it allows for many jobs to be filled with respect to clean up and so forth. Before this turns into something where I am wishing death on people via severe weather. If all the severe weather hit in the middle of nowhere I would be happy as a clam. But to say there is zero benefit to severe weather is a bit off. Actually, there have been economic studies that have found there is zero benefit to severe weather. Any job stimuli as a result of clean-up/rebuilding is far negated by the opportunity cost of the money needed to fund those jobs and the job losses that occur as a result of the severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 Are we really going to start this moral debate for the 149587th time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 Are we really going to start this moral debate for the 149587th time?Yeah it is a very tired argument, like every severe weather fan is wishing doom and gloom on people. Almost every type of weather has a negative effect on one or another facet of the economy. No one bring this up when people are praising crippling blizzards and they are equally as bad as severe weather. It is just the nature of the business that we like this stuff, it is why I went to school to become a meteorologist, because all types or weather fascinate me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 Actually, there have been economic studies that have found there is zero benefit to severe weather. Any job stimuli as a result of clean-up/rebuilding is far negated by the opportunity cost of the money needed to fund those jobs and the job losses that occur as a result of the severe weather. Sources or it doesn't matter. The entire property insurance industry would be basically non-existent without severe weather, along with the many, many fields which depend on them. And like Stebo mentioned, funny how this argument never surfaces during crippling blizzards. Its like people forget that severe weather occurs in the winter as well. Anyway, back to the topic at hand... GFS is brutal with those temps. As I already have some budding and shoots on some of the spring plants, that could really set things back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 I'll say again, as I do every time the debate about severe weather and winter storms comes up. We can't stop or change them, so it they're going to happen anyway, I want to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 Actually, there have been economic studies that have found there is zero benefit to severe weather. Any job stimuli as a result of clean-up/rebuilding is far negated by the opportunity cost of the money needed to fund those jobs and the job losses that occur as a result of the severe weather. Think of all the recreational opportunities with severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 Relocating to San Antonio in the next 2 months. Great place! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 medium range looks wet naso sure about cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sokolow Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 I disagree with this, it allows for many jobs to be filled with respect to clean up and so forth. Before this turns into something where I am wishing death on people via severe weather. If all the severe weather hit in the middle of nowhere I would be happy as a clam. But to say there is zero benefit to severe weather is a bit off.Probably is a topic better suited to pol subforum but I'd be inclined to reframe what you're saying -- which is in the rawest sense true -- as natural disasters assert an obvious crisis that compel private and public institutions to spend money on civic and residential infrastructureSo like the old Keynes chestnut where, in a depression or for that matter conditions short of full employment, it *doesn't make a difference* in terms of redistributive economic stimulus if you paid a whole bunch of laid off miners to bury gold dubloons and paid another group of jobless nurses to find em with metal detectors & dig em up instead of "building bridges or hospitals or providing a not-poisonous water supply" However as I'm sure everyone here knows when a town gets flattened by a tornado / burned by wildfire / inundated by storm surge its people whose finances and livlihoods are already precarious -- and who are already underserved by private and public powers that be e.g. minorities, the elderly, single parents -- that tend to get ruined & have their communities displaced. With potential huge social costs on a generational scale However as per the Keynes chestnut there are more humane, sensible, and socially useful ways to get the benefits of infrastructure spending than burying dubloons or waiting for cyclonic terror from the skies to level a subdivision Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 sokolow 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 sokolow 2020 Adds indisputable value to the Midwest forum... I'm still thankful for the dinner tab, that was very appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 Relocating to San Antonio in the next 2 months. Hey, I respect that. I don't respect locals who complain about the weather and never do anything about it. Clearly that isn't you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 Airmass north of the border is a little cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 Yeah, a pretty crazy map for early April. If something close to this verifies, I imagine there will be record lows in the Upper Midwest, especially if there is still any snow cover remaining. Unfortunately for us in the tropics, the cold air looks to scoot east instead of south after that frame. Of course it's still 10 days out...but verbatim, this continues the 2015-16 Winter theme of the "angle of the cold" being wrong. I know people joke about that phrase...but whenever cold air has tried to come down from central Canada in JFM (which has not been often anyway), it angles in a NW-SE direction, focusing on the eastern lakes/New England as opposed to forcefully coming down into the Midwest. You can even see this on the map above - draw a line from south central Canada (middle of the -30C H85 area) down to Cincinnati - that is the "center" and/or direction of movement of the cold airmass. Ironically, in Nov-Dec, the mean trough position was too far west for us...and in JFM, it has been too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 Yeah, a pretty crazy map for early April. If something close to this verifies, I imagine there will be record lows in the Upper Midwest, especially if there is still any snow cover remaining. Unfortunately for us in the tropics, the cold air looks to scoot east instead of south after that frame. Of course it's still 10 days out...but verbatim, this continues the 2015-16 Winter theme of the "angle of the cold" being wrong. I know people joke about that phrase...but whenever cold air has tried to come down from central Canada in JFM (which has not been often anyway), it angles in a NW-SE direction, focusing on the eastern lakes/New England as opposed to forcefully coming down into the Midwest. You can even see this on the map above - draw a line from south central Canada (middle of the -30C H85 area) down to Cincinnati - that is the "center" and/or direction of movement of the cold airmass. Ironically, in Nov-Dec, the mean trough position was too far west for us...and in JFM, it has been too far east. If you're rooting for a more direct path of cold, look at the GGEM same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 If you're rooting for a more direct path of cold, look at the GGEM same time. Agree - thanks for pointing this out. Either way, there could be some significant LE in the UP, assuming the general setup holds and moisture is adequate. Usually when the UP gets snow in April, it's synoptic instead of LE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 Great place! I definitely enjoyed it when I was there. Hey, I respect that. I don't respect locals who complain about the weather and never do anything about it. Clearly that isn't you. Yeah, it's not even necessarily the cold here as much as it's the constant dreariness and clouds. My SAD has gotten worse and worse each winter thus far. Not gonna miss the clouds, though Ill miss the 4 seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 I definitely enjoyed it when I was there. Yeah, it's not even necessarily the cold here as much as it's the constant dreariness and clouds. My SAD has gotten worse and worse each winter thus far. Not gonna miss the clouds, though Ill miss the 4 seasons. I'd prefer a mountain west climate to a great lake climate. If it's not snowing, it's sunny in Colorado. All year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 I'd prefer a mountain west climate to a great lake climate. If it's not snowing, it's sunny in Colorado. All year. Agree 10000% ...plus you don't deal with 75F dew points. This looks fun: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 6z GFS shows incredible cold for early April in the Upper Midwest, around day 9. 492 dm thicknesses in northern MN. This would even be an impressive air mass 4-6 weeks ago. Verbatim, assuming clear skies or snow cover (not necessarily both needed imo), could be some record lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 I'd prefer a mountain west climate to a great lake climate. If it's not snowing, it's sunny in Colorado. All year. +1000 I hope end up in the mountains eventually. Yeah this is chilly. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=namer&pkg=T2ma5d&runtime=2016032406&fh=270&xpos=0&ypos=39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 I'm sad that this thread is still alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 Anyone who likes loads of clipper's will love the 12Z GFS. Maybe we can squeeze a big dog out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 Anyone who likes loads of clipper's will love the 12Z GFS. Maybe we can squeeze a big dog out? Hopefully the cold shot is short lived and doesn't kill everything that is blooming. Also, no more snow, please. Not even a big dog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 Nothing has bloomed here, except Crocuses. The whole GFS run is winter like. Crazy looking. Pay back for the mild December? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 You reap what you sow when rooting for a morch just to get twisty storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 Hopefully the cold shot is short lived and doesn't kill everything that is blooming. Also, no more snow, please. Not even a big dog. The good thing once you get into April is that it's pretty difficult to lock in true winter type cold for more than like 3-5 days, especially at our latitude...not talking about just being below average as there's a difference between that and winter type cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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