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Winter 2015-16 Medium-Long Range Discussion


OHweather

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Less severe weather is a huge benefit, since there is zero benefit to severe weather.

I disagree with this, it allows for many jobs to be filled with respect to clean up and so forth. Before this turns into something where I am wishing death on people via severe weather. If all the severe weather hit in the middle of nowhere I would be happy as a clam. But to say there is zero benefit to severe weather is a bit off.

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I disagree with this, it allows for many jobs to be filled with respect to clean up and so forth. Before this turns into something where I am wishing death on people via severe weather. If all the severe weather hit in the middle of nowhere I would be happy as a clam. But to say there is zero benefit to severe weather is a bit off.

Actually, there have been economic studies that have found there is zero benefit to severe weather. Any job stimuli as a result of clean-up/rebuilding is far negated by the opportunity cost of the money needed to fund those jobs and the job losses that occur as a result of the severe weather.

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Are we really going to start this moral debate for the 149587th time?

Yeah it is a very tired argument, like every severe weather fan is wishing doom and gloom on people. Almost every type of weather has a negative effect on one or another facet of the economy. No one bring this up when people are praising crippling blizzards and they are equally as bad as severe weather. It is just the nature of the business that we like this stuff, it is why I went to school to become a meteorologist, because all types or weather fascinate me.
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Actually, there have been economic studies that have found there is zero benefit to severe weather. Any job stimuli as a result of clean-up/rebuilding is far negated by the opportunity cost of the money needed to fund those jobs and the job losses that occur as a result of the severe weather.

Sources or it doesn't matter.

 

The entire property insurance industry would be basically non-existent without severe weather, along with the many, many fields which depend on them.

 

And like Stebo mentioned, funny how this argument never surfaces during crippling blizzards. Its like people forget that severe weather occurs in the winter as well.

 

Anyway, back to the topic at hand... GFS is brutal with those temps. As I already have some budding and shoots on some of the spring plants, that could really set things back.

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Actually, there have been economic studies that have found there is zero benefit to severe weather. Any job stimuli as a result of clean-up/rebuilding is far negated by the opportunity cost of the money needed to fund those jobs and the job losses that occur as a result of the severe weather.

 

Think of all the recreational opportunities with severe.

 

Bill_Cigliano__Pecos_Bill.jpg

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I disagree with this, it allows for many jobs to be filled with respect to clean up and so forth. Before this turns into something where I am wishing death on people via severe weather. If all the severe weather hit in the middle of nowhere I would be happy as a clam. But to say there is zero benefit to severe weather is a bit off.

Probably is a topic better suited to pol subforum but I'd be inclined to reframe what you're saying -- which is in the rawest sense true -- as natural disasters assert an obvious crisis that compel private and public institutions to spend money on civic and residential infrastructure

So like the old Keynes chestnut where, in a depression or for that matter conditions short of full employment, it *doesn't make a difference* in terms of redistributive economic stimulus if you paid a whole bunch of laid off miners to bury gold dubloons and paid another group of jobless nurses to find em with metal detectors & dig em up instead of "building bridges or hospitals or providing a not-poisonous water supply"

However as I'm sure everyone here knows when a town gets flattened by a tornado / burned by wildfire / inundated by storm surge its people whose finances and livlihoods are already precarious -- and who are already underserved by private and public powers that be e.g. minorities, the elderly, single parents -- that tend to get ruined & have their communities displaced. With potential huge social costs on a generational scale

However as per the Keynes chestnut there are more humane, sensible, and socially useful ways to get the benefits of infrastructure spending than burying dubloons or waiting for cyclonic terror from the skies to level a subdivision

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Yeah, a pretty crazy map for early April.  If something close to this verifies, I imagine there will be record lows in the Upper Midwest, especially if there is still any snow cover remaining. 

 

Unfortunately for us in the tropics, the cold air looks to scoot east instead of south after that frame.  Of course it's still 10 days out...but verbatim, this continues the 2015-16 Winter theme of the "angle of the cold" being wrong.  I know people joke about that phrase...but whenever cold air has tried to come down from central Canada in JFM (which has not been often anyway), it angles in a NW-SE direction, focusing on the eastern lakes/New England as opposed to forcefully coming down into the Midwest.  You can even see this on the map above - draw a line from south central Canada (middle of the -30C H85 area) down to Cincinnati - that is the "center" and/or direction of movement of the cold airmass.

 

Ironically, in Nov-Dec, the mean trough position was too far west for us...and in JFM, it has been too far east. 

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Yeah, a pretty crazy map for early April.  If something close to this verifies, I imagine there will be record lows in the Upper Midwest, especially if there is still any snow cover remaining. 

 

Unfortunately for us in the tropics, the cold air looks to scoot east instead of south after that frame.  Of course it's still 10 days out...but verbatim, this continues the 2015-16 Winter theme of the "angle of the cold" being wrong.  I know people joke about that phrase...but whenever cold air has tried to come down from central Canada in JFM (which has not been often anyway), it angles in a NW-SE direction, focusing on the eastern lakes/New England as opposed to forcefully coming down into the Midwest.  You can even see this on the map above - draw a line from south central Canada (middle of the -30C H85 area) down to Cincinnati - that is the "center" and/or direction of movement of the cold airmass.

 

Ironically, in Nov-Dec, the mean trough position was too far west for us...and in JFM, it has been too far east. 

 

 

If you're rooting for a more direct path of cold, look at the GGEM same time.

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If you're rooting for a more direct path of cold, look at the GGEM same time.

Agree - thanks for pointing this out.

Either way, there could be some significant LE in the UP, assuming the general setup holds and moisture is adequate. Usually when the UP gets snow in April, it's synoptic instead of LE.

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Great place!

I definitely enjoyed it when I was there.

 

Hey, I respect that.

 

I don't respect locals who complain about the weather and never do anything about it.

 

Clearly that isn't you.

Yeah, it's not even necessarily the cold here as much as it's the constant dreariness and clouds. My SAD has gotten worse and worse each winter thus far. Not gonna miss the clouds, though Ill miss the 4 seasons.

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I definitely enjoyed it when I was there.

 

Yeah, it's not even necessarily the cold here as much as it's the constant dreariness and clouds. My SAD has gotten worse and worse each winter thus far. Not gonna miss the clouds, though Ill miss the 4 seasons.

 

I'd prefer a mountain west climate to a great lake climate.

 

If it's not snowing, it's sunny in Colorado. All year.

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Hopefully the cold shot is short lived and doesn't kill everything that is blooming. Also, no more snow, please. Not even a big dog. 

 

 

The good thing once you get into April is that it's pretty difficult to lock in true winter type cold for more than like 3-5 days, especially at our latitude...not talking about just being below average as there's a difference between that and winter type cold.

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