Geos Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Hadn't even looked at the extended models in a while. Looks like something might be brewing for the first week of March. The last few runs of the GFS have huge snow totals for IA, MN, lower MI and WI. That looks like fun. The model has been consistent about a couple moisture laden storms next week. Would be too funny if more snow ended up falling outside of DJF. It's possible if March opens like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Pretty much all of that is from the 3/3 storm. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Euro vs GFS/CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Impressive looking storm showing up in early March. May need a thread in a day or two. One thing I have noted this winter: The Euro, while not 100% correct in the long range (7-10 days), always seems to have an edge on the GFS in terms of trends. If the storm trends northwestward, the Euro will catch that, maybe 12 or more hours before the GFS does. In the 5-8 day forecast window, sometimes there are large shifts in storm track, where the models pick up on the true track. In the case of the current storm (Feb 24) The 12z Feb16 Euro had it close to Cape May NJ, The 12z Feb16 GFS had it 400mi east of Cape May NJ. All models had to shift the track west/northwest to KY and OH. The Euro caught the trend first. This current storm may not be the perfect case study for my hypothesis, but I think it is true overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 March 2-3 storm came in on 0Z GFS. Three Words: Blizzard of 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 00z GFS is smoking crack again I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 00z GFS is smoking crack again I see. Can't be right, it hits Chicago Detroit and Toronto, that isn't allowed this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Sorry, had to do it. 00z GFS is a dream run for us in Chicago. Would be nice if the 00z Euro actually put a storm in it's run unlike the weak POS on the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 I must admit, that track would be perfect for a massive hit here. god dammit winter, stop sucking me back in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 I must admit, that track would be perfect for a massive hit here. god dammit winter, stop sucking me back in WELCOME TO METEOROLOGICAL SPRING HERE'S YOUR BLIZZARD. /nature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 March 2-3 storm came in on 0Z GFS. Three Words: Blizzard of 78 I thought it looked more like January 1967. In any case, big big dog! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Went ahead and started a thread for it^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Went ahead and started a thread for it^ Good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 00z GFS is smoking crack again I see. Lock it in! I'd pay to see 1/2-2/3 of that. Temps are cold underneath the snow band - low to mid 20s in NE IL. Sharp baroclinic zone is helping fuel the fire so to speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Ich Mein Gott. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Ich Mein Gott. lol. Hoosier would eclipse 50" of snow in <3 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Got so focused on the March 1-3rd storm, didn't even look at the rest of the GFS run. About 4 snow systems on it. Crazy amount of moisture. Reminds me of some of those December runs. I guess it makes sense since the southern jet will start its journey northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Ich Mein Gott. That could work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 From 48" to <5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Only 19.4" we can do better.. congratulations, Cyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Only 19.4" we can do better.. congratulations, Cyclone LOL...nice little FU band. I know 'em well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slow poke Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 From 48" to <5" You guys might have a chance to finish out the season strong up there Josh snow wise by the looks of it. What do you have on the ground now after last nights storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Not to clutter up the storm thread - the EURO buries areas from south central Iowa to eastern MI (Detroit north) into southern Ontario in the next 10 days. Up to 2' amounts when factoring in ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Only 19.4" we can do better.. congratulations, Cyclone lol nice. Well all we have to do is get one flake and we'll beat the last storm, so I guess that would still be a win lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 All I need is 0.2" and I'll beat the last storm! Got a subscription to eurowx.com today. So if you want to see a map, just ask. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 You guys might have a chance to finish out the season strong up there Josh snow wise by the looks of it. What do you have on the ground now after last nights storm? It is looking pretty active that is for sure, which is pretty normal this time of the year with the one exception the Lakes are still wide open. I picked up about around 5" and another inch or so of LES. We are back up around 20" OTG now. To the east of me a couple areas picked up well over a foot upwards of 16"+. It is looking like some rain again Sunday before transitioning to snow. Then next weeks storm is anyone's guess but to be honest I would prefer an early spring as this winter has definitely been a disappointment but wasn't unexpected. Still around 30" under for snowfall this year which actually thought would be much more when it started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 I still think the low on the 4th still shows some potential for the southern posters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 We are looking at widespread 70+ across Iowa in the extended if the latest Euro is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Can someone please explain the reasons behind the awful model performance recently? First, a storm with a 20"+ swath of snow completely disappears 2-3 days out, then several 10-day snow accumulation progs from a few days ago showed 2-3 feet or more of snow in some areas...and now they're showing 70-degree warmth. Ridiculously horrendous model performance. I'm sure there are reasons...but it's incredibly bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 That high pressure system moves south SO FAST at the end of the week, it quickly squashes any chance of an incoming low pressure coming north. It would be a Tennessee Valley hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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