snowstormcanuck Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 12z GFS should be east by a fair margin. Spin the wheel of misfortune with these models this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 12z GFS should be east by a fair margin. Spin the wheel of misfortune with these models this far out. the difference from the previous run is just stupid ridiculous. The storm it was bringing up to cincy at 06z is now completely gone...and instead there is a front runner and weak follower. We literally go from driving rain to no precip . These are all developments inside of 96 hours too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 the difference from the previous run is just stupid ridiculous. The storm it was bringing up to cincy at 06z is now completely gone...and instead there is a front runner and weak follower. We literally go from driving rain to no precip . These are all developments inside of 96 hours too. Yeah this is why I said the models will struggle for several days. It's going to bounce back and forth on whether or not to phase the two pieces together or eject week garbage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Ukie stays with a highly juiced solution cutting through OH and bombing to 980mb over the lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 The storm the GFS around 240 made me happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 The Euro should be coming NW this run based on the look at 108 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 The Euro should be coming NW this run based on the look at 108 hours.Not by much. Brings out a stronger piece of energy but is still sloppy/late with the phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Both the GFS and GEM show another big storm on March 2nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Both the GFS and GEM show another big storm on March 2nd. Next 10 days on the GFS would have some folks changing their opinions on this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Next 10 days on the GFS would have some folks changing their opinions on this winter. Most certainly, especially if that 00z GFS came to fruition.. Haha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Next 10 days on the GFS would have some folks changing their opinions on this winter. Active pattern with not much cold inbetween to make the down times enjoyable. I'd take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 This winter wants to suck me back in by tempting me with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 This winter wants to suck me back in by tempting me with this Saw that earlier... Then thought to myself "The 384hr gfs what could possibly go wrong?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Saw that earlier... Then thought to myself "The 384hr gfs what could possibly go wrong?" Well it did come in form of three storms so there is a bit of margin for error, of course I am not buying 40" of snow in 16 days, this isn't Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Longer range GFS looks pretty encouraging for snowfall. At least it's something to look at on the models to take the mind off the storm coming in Wednesday. This is the time of the year when you can start to feel schizophrenic. Sometimes you want to just say screw winter and hope for a warmer pattern. Then comes along a pattern that could support a decent late-season snowstorm, and you're like bring it. The mind can change back and forth pretty quickly this time of year, at least for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 00z GFS, 150 hours. DTW is at the sleet/freezing rain transition, with an 1000mb low near Fort Wayne. Ahhh, good times. Probably won't verify in that exact way. The last 4 runs of the GFS have definitely shown -something nasty- in this time frame for the lower Great Lakes. The question is, how will it trend in the next 150 hours? Only time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 This winter wants to suck me back in by tempting me with this Good Lord, that's a lot of snow! Towards Cyclone's post - if it would have stayed warmer longer I would have probably flipped to spring mode, but it didn't. With the prospects of a couple snowfalls in the next 10 days, I am firmly in winter mode still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Good Lord, that's a lot of snow! Towards Cyclone's post - if it would have stayed warmer longer I would have probably flipped to spring mode, but it didn't. With the prospects of a couple snowfalls in the next 10 days, I am firmly in winter mode still. I'm ready for Spring but can't give up on winter either... especially up here. My main reason is I have a long list of projects that can't be done with 35" of snow on the ground.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Well it did come in form of three storms so there is a bit of margin for error, of course I am not buying 40" of snow in 16 days, this isn't Boston. I will say the storm around 150 hrs is looking impressive for you and that's a reasonable range so good luck.That is definitely not far fetched to see a footer storm modeled decent in that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 I'm ready for spring as well, have some big plans Spring/Summer and it would be a huge help to get an "early" start for us up here. With that being said there is still a lot of cold air in Canada and pieces look to still head down over the next two weeks which I am not too surprised given its still Feb. Also given the Lakes are still wide open, LES could occur anytime which normally by Mid-March isn't a problem for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guru Of Reason Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Next 10 days on the GFS would have some folks changing their opinions on this winter. El Nino, FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 A limitless birdie told me Sunday's storm will slam MKE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 There isn't anything remotely interesting about the extended for anyone who hasn't already had a better winter than most. So... congrats Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 All apsects of weather continue (for those of us excluded from the current event) to remain locked in a very benign stretch through the first week or two of March. Other than the wind event last week this has been a god awful month of weather for the enthusiast in this area. Just wish we could fast forward to April, or better yet May and June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 All apsects of weather continue (for those of us excluded from the current event) to remain locked in a very benign stretch through the first week or two of March. Other than the wind event last week this has been a god awful month of weather for the enthusiast in this area. Just wish we could fast forward to April, or better yet May and June. Yep, brutal to watch this storm be so close yet so far away. Doing a bit better than you this season, but not by much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Yep, brutal to watch this storm be so close yet so far away. Doing a bit better than you this season, but not by much. Here's to an active spring/summer severe season, and hopefully better results for us next winter whether it's a nino/nina/ or whatever. We've hit rock bottom, so no matter what it cannot be any worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Impressive looking storm showing up in early March. May need a thread in a day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Hadn't even looked at the extended models in a while. Looks like something might be brewing for the first week of March. The last few runs of the GFS have huge snow totals for IA, MN, lower MI and WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Impressive looking storm showing up in early March. May need a thread in a day or two. I vote a traditional poster start it, like you or TS12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 I vote a traditional poster start it, like you or TS12. Seconded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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