Winter 2015-16 Medium-Long Range Discussion

[Jonger]

We all knew the likelihood of this pattern developing in early winter, so its not a real shocker. The amazing thing is the extent of the snowless landscape as far north as depicted. Things will improve in time, till then I'm enjoying the warmth and the extended balmy weather.

 

I thought Ontario around 48N would be safe, but I didn't anticipate the coming +35F anomalies centered over the area next week.

[Geos]

Going to be a blow torch ahead of that 11-12th system.

60° makes it up Milwaukee.

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Euro has what I assume to be a big severe event next weekend. Significant moisture/instability advection as you approach hour 180, which is when the Wundermap cuts off. I think the severe threat would be extreme SE OK(?)/E TX/S AR/LA

 

 

That's not even to mention what comes after this trough on the Euro...  love this pattern.

[IllinoisWedges]

Sure wish I could show you the 192 hour. Almost 3k instability in C Texas. 

[andyhb]

Euro has what I assume to be a big severe event next weekend. Significant moisture/instability advection as you approach hour 180, which is when the Wundermap cuts off. I think the severe threat would be extreme SE OK(?)/E TX/S AR/LA

 

That's not even to mention what comes after this trough on the Euro...  love this pattern.

 

We should probably take this discussion the Central/Western from here on out, since it looks like the severe thread (if any) will end up concentrated there (vs. areas further north at least).

[IWXwx]

Sam Lashley at IWX and Mike Ryan at IND ► :weenie:

 

Both are mentioning the trough in their long-term discussions and its ramifications on our sensible weather even though it is outside the scope of the discussion:

 

Mike: EXPANSION AND DEEPENING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH STILL
POINTING TO A CONTINUED TRANSITION TO A MUCH MORE UNSETTLED AND
COOLER PATTERN DEVELOPING IN THE 10 TO 14 DAY PERIOD OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY.

 

Sam: FORECAST STILL LOOKS INTERESTING IN THE DAY 7 AND JUST BEYOND PERIOD
AS STRONG PACIFIC JET ENERGY FINALLY REACHES THE WESTERN CONUS AND
HELPS AMPLIFY THE PATTERN. AS EXPECTED MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE
VARIOUS SOLUTIONS WITH STRENGTH...TIMING AND EVOLUTION AND THESE
MODELS WILL WAVER UNTIL THIS JET ENERGY BECOMES BETTER SAMPLED NEXT
WEEK. FOR NOW WILL STAY WITH LOW CHANCE POPS OF SUPERBLEND WITH BEST
CHANCES LIKELY COMING IN THE DAY 8-10 PERIOD. GIVEN JET STRENGTH AND
EL NINO PATTERN WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS SYSTEM STRONGER
THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.

[DAFF]

Something big usually is required to reset the patterns. I can remember Tornadoes as a precursor to winter weather arriving, perhaps this is the system....

[A-L-E-K]

Lol

[Hoosier]

We should probably take this discussion the Central/Western from here on out, since it looks like the severe thread (if any) will end up concentrated there (vs. areas further north at least).

 

 

Upcoming pattern looking pretty active.  What could help the severe potential get farther north eventually is if we get a lead system that doesn't have a cold front sweep the moisture too far south for something afterward.  The 00z Euro was hinting at something like that in the 7-10 day timeframe but it's really too far out to have any confidence. 

[nwburbschaser]

Something big usually is required to reset the patterns. I can remember Tornadoes as a precursor to winter weather arriving, perhaps this is the system....

I think you'll end up very disappointed if you're of the mindset that the pattern is simply going to change to a more wintry one anytime soon.

[Hoosier]

I think you'll end up very disappointed if you're of the mindset that the pattern is simply going to change to a more wintry one anytime soon.

 

 

Agree...looks like thread the needle/get lucky for the forseeable future.  Could be more consistently wintry in parts of the West/Plains. 

[Powerball]

I think you'll end up very disappointed if you're of the mindset that the pattern is simply going to change to a more wintry one anytime soon.

 

 

Agree...looks like thread the needle/get lucky for the forseeable future.  Could be more consistently wintry in parts of the West/Plains. 

 

Even with thread the needle setups, you can still end up with nice snowstorms (especially with the STJ in play).

[Geos]

Something big usually is required to reset the patterns. I can remember Tornadoes as a precursor to winter weather arriving, perhaps this is the system....

 

If we can get a strong system to track into the Arctic it might act to build heights out ahead of itself over the far north and bring down the AO. The short term pattern looks bleak, but then it gets stormy again, which is a good thing.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Sure wish I could show you the 192 hour. Almost 3k instability in C Texas. 

 

 

Something big usually is required to reset the patterns. I can remember Tornadoes as a precursor to winter weather arriving, perhaps this is the system....

There was no "precursor" at all last winter. Absolutely no severe weather

[Hoosier]

Pretty excited about where things are heading the next several weeks.  Lack of cold air/storm track will be problematic sometimes but if you keep firing bullets, you're bound to hit something. 

[Geos]

Worth mentioning: a couple areas of stratospheric warming taking place. That area of Scandinavian has the most chance of disrupting the stratospheric vortex. 

 

[michsnowfreak]

Something big usually is required to reset the patterns. I can remember Tornadoes as a precursor to winter weather arriving, perhaps this is the system....

Did you get any salting/plowing in in November?

[DAFF]

Did you get any salting/plowing in in November?

 

Plow and salt on the 22nd system for some of my locations. Others were salt only. Seemed a very sharp gradient from accumulating snow to wet surfaces, about 3 miles in Windsor.

 

There was no "precursor" at all last winter. Absolutely no severe weather

 

Had thunder storms here on Christmas eve last year. Not long after that winter did not budge. The winter before had the tornadoes before winter took a grip. By no ways scientific but just a pattern which has developed in my local observations. As for this year I'm not expecting any short term PV to invade the region, more of a stale cold weather pattern where snows are marginal and temperatures a little closer to normal.

[OHweather]

Pretty excited about where things are heading the next several weeks.  Lack of cold air/storm track will be problematic sometimes but if you keep firing bullets, you're bound to hit something. 

What we need I think is the persistent ridging along the east coast to shift north into E Canada and act as a pseudo block that storms try cutting underneath of. The ensembles have been consistently retracting the Pac jet within 10 days through the end of their runs, which would argue for increasing heights near Alaska eventually, so it wouldn't surprise me if we get some more quality cold shots after mid-month...the early concern though is they may dump in pretty far west initially. Won't be a quiet weather pattern...and could eventually turn snowy for more of the sub but it may take some work to get there. I'd have to think the jet would extend again at some point as that's more typical for El Nino...that could also push the cold air east and give us a brief window. Not to be a weenie but maybe this all lines up somewhere near Christmas.

[IWXwx]

What we need I think is the persistent ridging along the east coast to shift north into NE Canada and act as a pseudo block that storms try cutting underneath of. The ensembles have been consistently retracting the Pac jet within 10 days through the end of their runs, which would argue for increasing heights near Alaska eventually, so it wouldn't surprise me if we get some more quality cold shots after mid-month...the early concern though is they may dump in pretty far west initially. Won't be a quiet weather pattern...and could eventually turn snowy for more of the sub but it may take some work to get there. I'd have to think the jet would extend again at some point as that's more typical for El Nino...that could also push the cold air east and give us a brief window. Not to be a weenie but maybe this all lines up somewhere near Christmas.

 

I agree with your thoughts, However, I would feel much better about getting some of the good stuff if I was in the western part of the subforum (Iowa, Minnesota, Western Wisconsin) rather than where we sit because I have a feeling that the SE ridge isn't going anywhere and any energy is going to cut. Hopefully you and Hoosier are right about that changing late month.

[OHweather]

I agree with your thoughts, However, I would feel much better about getting some of the good stuff if I was in the western part of the subforum (Iowa, Minnesota, Western Wisconsin) rather than where we sit because I have a feeling that the SE ridge isn't going anywhere and any energy is going to cut. Hopefully you and Hoosier are right about that changing late month.

Yeah, I'd rather be farther west too, especially initially. They'll probably have more opportunities overall this month.

[Chinook]

 

Euro has what I assume to be a big severe event next weekend. Significant moisture/instability advection as you approach hour 180, which is when the Wundermap cuts off. I think the severe threat would be extreme SE OK(?)/E TX/S AR/LA

 

 

 

That's not even to mention what comes after this trough on the Euro...  love this pattern.

 

You may want to post thoughts on southern US severe weather threats in the Central/Western subforum. There may be a fair amount of interest in this.

[chasmosnow]

What we need I think is the persistent ridging along the east coast to shift north into E Canada and act as a pseudo block that storms try cutting underneath of. The ensembles have been consistently retracting the Pac jet within 10 days through the end of their runs, which would argue for increasing heights near Alaska eventually, so it wouldn't surprise me if we get some more quality cold shots after mid-month...the early concern though is they may dump in pretty far west initially. Won't be a quiet weather pattern...and could eventually turn snowy for more of the sub but it may take some work to get there. I'd have to think the jet would extend again at some point as that's more typical for El Nino...that could also push the cold air east and give us a brief window. Not to be a weenie but maybe this all lines up somewhere near Christmas.

 

 Agree with much that you point out here.Hybred El Nino with western cold.

 

Think Neg anomalies that are predicted for DJF for  the southern US in earlier out looks are instead further north and take in the midwest.Could be a very dynamic mix of snow and rain with this clear up to the Candian border. Will be an interesting winter if we get into the neg. anomalie area  though hard to say at this point who lucks out snow wise!.

 

 Key for the next few weeks is the advance of western cold into the mid section of US which some of the models are hinting at.

[BuffaloWeather]

Buffalo NWS is getting antsy to see some cold/snow to forecast something like this so far out.

 

LOOKING FURTHER OUT INTO THE SECOND FULL WEEK OF DECEMBER...BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS BASED ENSEMBLES ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT THE
PACIFIC BASED FLOW COULD TEMPORARILY BREAK DOWN OVER THE LOWER 48.
A NICE SIZED CHUNK OF -12 TO -16C H85 AIR IS ADVERTISED TO MOVE
FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
SHOULD THIS AIRMASS MAKE IT TO THE OHIO VALLEY...IT WOULD BE IN A
FAVORABLE POSITION TO EVENTUALLY GENERATE SOME SIGNIFICANT LAKE
SNOWS EAST OF BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. THERE ARE PLENTY OF `IFS`
WITH THIS SCNEARIO THOUGH...BUT IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO KEEP AN
EYE ON AS WE MOVE DEEPER INTO PREPARATIONS FOR THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY SEASON.

[TugHillMatt]

Buffalo NWS is getting antsy to see some cold/snow to forecast something like this so far out.

 

LOOKING FURTHER OUT INTO THE SECOND FULL WEEK OF DECEMBER...BOTH

THE ECMWF AND GFS BASED ENSEMBLES ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT THE

PACIFIC BASED FLOW COULD TEMPORARILY BREAK DOWN OVER THE LOWER 48.

A NICE SIZED CHUNK OF -12 TO -16C H85 AIR IS ADVERTISED TO MOVE

FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

SHOULD THIS AIRMASS MAKE IT TO THE OHIO VALLEY...IT WOULD BE IN A

FAVORABLE POSITION TO EVENTUALLY GENERATE SOME SIGNIFICANT LAKE

SNOWS EAST OF BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. THERE ARE PLENTY OF `IFS`

WITH THIS SCNEARIO THOUGH...BUT IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO KEEP AN

EYE ON AS WE MOVE DEEPER INTO PREPARATIONS FOR THE UPCOMING

HOLIDAY SEASON.

 

GRR NWS has been discussing (off and on) the better possibilities for snow, at least temporarily, after this upcoming week as well.

[Hoosier]

Quite a bomb on the 00z GFS next weekend.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Quite a bomb on the 00z GFS next weekend.

Whew, that's a fun solution

 

31mb drop in 24 hours and then the pattern reloads with another western trough. Fun.

[Thundersnow12]

Quite a bomb on the 00z GFS next weekend.

 

130kt jet streak at 500mb leads to one of the craziest bomb solutions I've seen on a model. 1002mb to 970mb and actually deepens 8mb in 3hr

[ClicheVortex2014]

130kt jet streak at 500mb leads to one of the craziest bomb solutions I've seen on a model. 1002mb to 970mb and actually deepens 8mb in 3hr

I looked back on the Octobomb and even that system didn't deepen as rapidly as this one. 31mb is pretty crazy to see over land.

[Geos]

Nice cutter on the 16th on the GFS.

 

Looks like a flip to wintry after the 14th or so. Rest of the run of the GFS actually has big parts of the Midwest below normal for awhile. Highest departures in the northern Plains.