Stebo Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 It is reinforced after that. The pattern always buckles like that. JBs call is already looking bad. There is no guarantee it gets reinforced after relaxing, as a matter of fact the models show things going zonal before going back to a trough in the west. This would follow the MJO projection into mid to late February where we end up in the warm phases of 5 to 6 and eventually 7 by March 1st. All 3 of those phases favor warmth in the east and unsettled weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 There is no guarantee it gets reinforced after relaxing, as a matter of fact the models show things going zonal before going back to a trough in the west. This would follow the MJO projection into mid to late February where we end up in the warm phases of 5 to 6 and eventually 7 by March 1st. All 3 of those phases favor warmth in the east and unsettled weather. Possibly, but this same scenario keeps getting pushed back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Possibly, but this same scenario keeps getting pushed back. Just like this cold snap was originally for end of last month, there is a delay in the MJO but it probably won't be long. Thing is there is nothing really to hold the cold dome in place, we have minimal snow cover in the region beyond the lakes or up in Northern Ontario. That in of itself signifies progression in the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Just like this cold snap was originally for end of last month, there is a delay in the MJO but it probably won't be long. Thing is there is nothing really to hold the cold dome in place, we have minimal snow cover in the region beyond the lakes or up in Northern Ontario. That in of itself signifies progression in the pattern. I guess we will find out. I'm not very concerned with lower latitude snow cover for maintaining cold. Most of the source regions for cold are covered as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 To those of you who still give a sh*t, the Euro has a storm early next week. Widespread 6"+. LR guidance looks nice, too. Don't get mad at me, weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 final call for sunday night - 2.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 final call for sunday night - 2.2" Bullish call for 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Parallel Euro considerably weaker unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 I can dig the Euro, I love that look. Especially as we get closer to March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Theres a signal at D7-D8 for S On/Que/NY/PA. The 12z run of the EPS was pretty interesting. Based on this winters progression thus far, taking it FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 I can dig the Euro, I love that look. Especially as we get closer to March.850 mb temperature anomalies on the 12z Euro valid on 2/19. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Op Euro has 70 degree weather all the way up to central MO next Wed and Thu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 240 hr is the warmest hour on the GFS. A return to troughing takes place shortly after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Op Euro has 70 degree weather all the way up to central MO next Wed and Thu. LOL... early spring NAEFS is a torch http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/ensemble/naefs/semaine2/images/2016020912_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NAEFS@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@combined@week2_186.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 LOL... early spring NAEFS is a torch http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/ensemble/naefs/semaine2/images/2016020912_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NAEFS@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@combined@week2_186.png lol. Well, hopefully we can get some thunderstorms again as long as it is gonna rain again later next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 The system on the 15th is looking like a 4-8 using the Kuchera ratio. Meh, looks to be windy so we might get some blowing/drifting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 The system on the 15th is looking like a 4-8 using the Kuchera ratio. Meh, looks to be windy so we might get some blowing/drifting. You are full steam ahead on that time period. Not sure I buy anything more than a nuciance event at best right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 19th storm moved south on the 06z GFS. A couple more bumps and we all dodge the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 weak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Awful stretch for snow continues next 10 days for this part of the sub. Good news is that warm up later next week looks sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 There is no guarantee it gets reinforced after relaxing, as a matter of fact the models show things going zonal before going back to a trough in the west. This would follow the MJO projection into mid to late February where we end up in the warm phases of 5 to 6 and eventually 7 by March 1st. All 3 of those phases favor warmth in the east and unsettled weather. This entire cold wave is going to occur while we're in MJO phases 4 and 5... both warm phases. It's finally gonna warm up by the 15th, but why so delayed? I doubt it's a coincidence that a very strong stratospheric warming event just happened and now we're seeing CPF. JB and Cohen have both said for a while that the end of February and start of March will be cold. Honestly I wouldn't expect either of them to say any different after preaching a backloaded winter. So you never know when they're just saying it or they mean it. But GFS has been consistent with showing another stratospheric warming event around the 24th that intrudes the North Pole. If this verifies, I doubt we're gonna end February on a warm note despite what the MJO suggests. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 You are full steam ahead on that time period. Not sure I buy anything more than a nuciance event at best right now. ^^^I think you got it right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Warm and wet for the Ohio Valley: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 You are full steam ahead on that time period. Not sure I buy anything more than a nuciance event at best right now. Count the bucket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Warm and wet for the Ohio Valley: Of course. Been the name of the game lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Bunch of high-ONs. ^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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