Jonger Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 January was above normal both locally and regionally so it didn't exactly miss and so far we are above normal right now for this month. The CFC was bailed out by the last 5 days of January. Someone is going to need to explain the -4 to +4 system on that chart. Calling +2F the same as +14F verification under the same color shade is a bit of a error margin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 0Z GFS shows the 15th storm practically as a heavy clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 January was slightly above normal regionally, far from the record inferno the cfs predicted. I'd love to see an actual regional departure map for Jan vs the cfs depiction from most of Dec. I guess you could say it predicted the right side of normal we ended up on but was grossly overdone. Same for Feb... +2.5 locally is more than slightly above normal that's pretty much above normal and so far for February we are +9 on the month, yes we will be giving a decent bit of that back after Monday but if the back half of the month is above normal we will run the table for the winter with ++, +, and + to ++ for all 3 months. Either way the CFS wasn't off like it was last winter, this time it was on the right side of normal and did well for December and could potentially do well for this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 And the 0Z GEM is a pretty nice lasting storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 The CFC was bailed out by the last 5 days of January. Someone is going to need to explain the -4 to +4 system on that chart. Calling +2F the same as +14F verification under the same color shade is a bit of a error margin. The plus/minus 4 system is in K which is same as C. So it is saying +4 or +7.2f for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 +2.5 locally is more than slightly above normal that's pretty much above normal and so far for February we are +9 on the month, yes we will be giving a decent bit of that back after Monday but if the back half of the month is above normal we will run the table for the winter with ++, +, and + to ++ for all 3 months. Either way the CFS wasn't off like it was last winter, this time it was on the right side of normal and did well for December and could potentially do well for this month. It depends on what CFS period you are using. If you look at the CFS map that was made more than a week before Jan, it was WAY off. If you look at the map made on the last day of Dec, it was closer... But still a bit warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 This is the CFS map for January... But it shows what actually happened for the most part. The warmth didn't dip down anywhere close to what the CPC map had a week out. So, using the March maps as a guide, isn't so smart at this point in time. The continental united states was below normal as a whole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 It depends on what CFS period you are using. If you look at the CFS map that was made more than a week before Jan, it was WAY off. If you look at the map made on the last day of Dec, it was closer... But still a bit warm. It has us at around +2 which is +3.6f so it was off by 1.1f that isn't exactly huge... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 On Dec 31st? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 It has us at around +2 which is +3.6f so it was off by 1.1f that isn't exactly huge... Thats not bad...but for most of Dec it was forecasting greater than +4C departures. Only the last few days did it tone it down big time, closer to reality. Did the exact same thing in late Jan for Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 On Dec 31st? Yes, I get what you are saying that it isn't exactly useful now but the trend through the months previous was similar it just was the magnitude of warmth that changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Why do people continue to buy the CFS at this range when it continues to hedge cold by the end of each month. Never said I live and die by the CFS. Just interesting to look at in the med-long range thread. It will likely scale back somewhat as time goes on, with a better focus for the above normal regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Because people want THE TORCH and Severe Weather Outbreaks instead of the pattern were in right now. You're not helping anyone's cause with posts like this. Honestly I hope the CFSv2 is off track especially in the LR since it doesn't show a flip to a Nina like practically the entire rest of the long range guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Goodness gracious @ the cold on the 00z Euro for D6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 06Z GFS has a good looking system on the 15th again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 06Z GFS has a good looking system on the 15th again. Clipper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 i think people forgot what an actual quality clipper pattern looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 i think people forgot what an actual quality clipper pattern looks like It has been years since we got a good clipper. The 1990s were the clipper years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 GGEM giving Toronto an 18" dump on Feb 16 with strong winds. Gotta love fantasy land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 We had a couple good clippers a few years ago, anyways on the 15th system I looks to be a general 6-9 storm on the GFS with a few people maybe getting a foot. The real problem (if this verifies) will be blowing and drifting, the GFS shows wind gusts in the mid 30s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 i think people forgot what an actual quality clipper pattern looks like Haven't had a quality snowywinter pattern since 2009 in south east wi. Quality clipper pattern doesn't exist here. They Peter out only to dump on east side of lake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 It has been years since we got a good clipper. The 1990s were the clipper years.Clippers were pretty much only thing scored in the 90'sDec 04 and Jan 05 had two really nice ones. We had a nice clipper 4-5" couple days before the GD1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 hard to get much worse than the 12z GFS total lameness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Goodness gracious @ the cold on the 00z Euro for D6. That's going to be a cold one here. High of 1F in the forecast for now and dual lows of -9F for Fri/Sat nights. I've seen the smallest of buds on some trees, due to the consecutive above freezing highs we've had of late. I think damage from this cold shot will be minimal luckily. If it was later in the month, it would probably be bad news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Feburary 15th storm still there on all models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Feburary 15th storm still there on all models. Using the term storm loosely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Feburary 15th storm still there on all models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 looks like another warmup is possible between 15-20 then another attempt at "winter" 20-25. will have to see if that departing arctic high over the northeast get's attacked on it's way out as JB alludes to. A snowstorm ushering in the thaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 hard to get much worse than the 12z GFS total lameness Yeah you just have to laugh at this point. GFS has been pretty consistent with another rainy cutter for around the 20th. Long way off of course, but it's signalling another rainer similar to the GHD storm. Probably some more snow for northwest Iowa. Bleh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 will have to see if that departing arctic high over the northeast get's attacked on it's way out as JB alludes to. A snowstorm ushering in the thaw. It is reinforced after that. The pattern always buckles like that. JBs call is already looking bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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