HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 12Z GFS is close to the 06z, if its still there at 0Z tonight a thread will be needed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 12Z GFS is close to the 06z, if its still there at 0Z tonight a thread will be needed Is it shown on the Canadian and Euro models? Have seen little discussion with regards to NWS Offices. I'm guessing cold dry feed may squash anything relevant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 It's on the 12Z GEM, 12Z Euro isnt out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 12Z GFS is close to the 06z, if its still there at 0Z tonight a thread will be needed the gfs is all northern stream, last night's euro was all southern stream and a miss mostly south. This has a long way to go before there's anything to track. the ggem is also all northern stream with redev off the east coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 12Z GFS is close to the 06z, if its still there at 0Z tonight a thread will be needed It is also 8 days out, lets get it a bit closer before we talk threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 It is also 8 days out, lets get it a bit closer before we talk threads. Yeah save for one or two big systems on the models this winter its generally been foolish to trust anything more than 120 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Lol, pattern sucks dudes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Lol, pattern sucks dudes yup. I'm holding out for a prolonged lucky snow shower or squall Monday night or Tuesday to give us a couple inches....as far as next weekend into the following week, my money goes on the square that says it falls apart into a weakening convoluted split mess, (see 90% of previous threats this winter). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 yup. I'm holding out for a prolonged lucky snow shower or squall Monday night or Tuesday to give us a couple inches....as far as next weekend into the following week, my money goes on the square that says it falls apart into a weakening convoluted split mess, (see 90% of previous threats this winter). ...and PREVIOUS THREADS! lol I don't want to talk about a piece of Dog Crap "storm" for 8 more days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 It is also 8 days out, lets get it a bit closer before we talk threads. Agree 110%, although watching another thread of dreams and despair develop would be comical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 ...and PREVIOUS THREADS! lol I don't want to talk about a piece of Dog Crap "storm" for 8 more days... thankfully the storm 3 weeks ago was able to snag a few of our extreme southern posters, otherwise starting that thread would have been total humiliation instead of just a little embarrassing. Nothing worse than starting a storm thread and not getting a flake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Oh well, it could happen it could not. We can only watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Agree 110%, although watching another thread of dreams and despair develop would be comical. Bahaha! ...and depressing! Oh well, it could happen it could not. We can only watch. Love the passion...I just don't think many of us have the energy or hope to discuss a possibility that far out during THIS winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 It is also 8 days out, lets get it a bit closer before we talk threads. Around 120-150 hrs out. IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Next weekend's system pretty lame on the new Euro. Looks like it wants to spin up another east coast storm after it leaves our sub by early the following week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Next weekend's system pretty lame on the new Euro. Looks like it wants to spin up another east coast storm after it leaves our sub by early the following week. it's not a bad hit for the Ohio crowd but the set up sucks. A low over the lake in tandem with a weak low to the south. Those never produce worth a crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 it's not a bad hit for the Ohio crowd but the set up sucks. A low over the lake in tandem with a weak low to the south. Those never produce worth a crap. I just realized you got over 5 inches of snow during the last two thirds of January. You more than 500 times the amount of snow you got during the first half of winter in 2 weeks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I just realized you got over 5 inches of snow during the last two thirds of January. You more than 500 times the amount of snow you got during the first half of winter in 2 weeks! you could come up with a hundred crazy comparisons when you're only sitting at 5". Hell we've had storms give us more snow in 3 hours than what we've gotten all season.....for instance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 The western torch is slowly creeping eastward on the past few runs of the NAEFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Is it shown on the Canadian and Euro models? Have seen little discussion with regards to NWS Offices. I'm guessing cold dry feed may squash anything relevant. ILX/LSX both mentioned it for the first time this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Is it shown on the Canadian and Euro models? Have seen little discussion with regards to NWS Offices. I'm guessing cold dry feed may squash anything relevant. One of the mets at IWX (Pat Murphy) has his eyes on it.... EC STILL HINTING AT STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ABOUT VALETINES DAY WITH SURFACE LOW TRACK INTO OHIO VALLEY. NORTHWARD MOISTURE FLUX/OPEN GOMEX ATOP ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE SIG SYNOPTIC SNOW EVENT...WITH CAVEAT OF A SLOWER/MORE NORTHERN TRACK AFFORDING POTENTIAL ICE SWATCH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Early of course but here's the CFS for March through the first week of Feb. Fairly consistent so far anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 GEFS has the 8-14 day outlook at little more seasonable to cool. Warmest in the far western parts of the sub forum area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Early of course but here's the CFS for March through the first week of Feb. Fairly consistent so far anyway. Looks just like it did for Jan and Feb at this stage of the previous month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Why do people continue to buy the CFS at this range when it continues to hedge cold by the end of each month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Why do people continue to buy the CFS at this range when it continues to hedge cold by the end of each month. Because people want THE TORCH and Severe Weather Outbreaks instead of the pattern were in right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Looks just like it did for Jan and Feb at this stage of the previous month It has no skill past 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Because people want THE TORCH and Severe Weather Outbreaks instead of the pattern were in right now. No thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Looks just like it did for Jan and Feb at this stage of the previous month January was above normal both locally and regionally so it didn't exactly miss and so far we are above normal right now for this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 January was above normal both locally and regionally so it didn't exactly miss and so far we are above normal right now for this month.January was slightly above normal regionally, far from the record inferno the cfs predicted. I'd love to see an actual regional departure map for Jan vs the cfs depiction from most of Dec. I guess you could say it predicted the right side of normal we ended up on but was grossly overdone. Same for Feb... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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