gosaints Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 vegetation is largely dormant until the end of April. Some people want torch right now, some people want cold...everyone is different. End of april? That is inaccurate even in my backyard during the coldest of springs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 It will flip back.... I hope we are troughing into mid April.Yeah no need for another record warm March or feb to "screw" up vegetation.I get it.. Folks are frustrated and cry early spring with a third of met winter to go happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Keep on trolling. No one hopes for cold weather in April that can screw up vegetation, we have played that game enough over the last 10 to 20 years. Come on - Jonger is just responding to the trolling and annoying posts from Illinois Wedges, who keeps posting about early spring, torches, and severe weather in a Winter thread. If you want to talk about Morch, severe storms, and flowers blooming in February...then why not create a separate thread or keep it in banter?? Agree with RC's thoughts - need to sort through the volatility for awhile - which means, for now, probably best to look at ensembles instead of op runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 The GFS beyond 120 hrs for the past few days: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 glances at 12z models.... suicidebooth.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 That storm around 240 on the GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 That storm around 240 on the GEM Probably our next timeframe for a warm cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 The GFS beyond 120 hrs for the past few days: flipflop.gif Hahaha!! Nice. That's about how that last system went for eastern Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 12z GFS has mid 50Fs for around 20th... Saukville will be giddy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 12z GFS has mid 50Fs for around 20th... Saukville will be giddy. The 384 hr GFS is about as accurate as the Farmers Almanac. I usually draw the line around the 240 hr timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 The 384 hr GFS is about as accurate as the Farmers Almanac. I usually draw the line around the 240 hr timeframe. the older I get it's 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 The 384 hr GFS is about as accurate as the Farmers Almanac. I usually draw the line around the 240 hr timeframe. Saukville shows me models that go out months and months... Something to watch. I'm not sure i want any sort of heatwave in Feb...trees will all be dead when the polar vortex comes back n March and then in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 End of april? That is inaccurate even in my backyard during the coldest of springsI mean vegetation that is susceptible the cold, not talking greening grass, crocuses, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Probably our next timeframe for a warm cutter Sounds like so much fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I mean vegetation that is susceptible the cold, not talking greening grass, crocuses, etc. Trees are usually blooming by then as well, I'd say it is rare even half of the vegetation to be still dormant even into mid April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Trees are usually blooming by then as well, I'd say it is rare even half of the vegetation to be still dormant even into mid April. The last 3 years the trees didnt bloom until early May (except for a few isolated early ones)....and then on 2012 they began blooming in late March. Overall...id say late April is a good average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Sun angle has a lot to do with whether or not trees leave dormancy. Ever go to north/central Florida during winter? Trees mostly go barren, grass goes mostly dormant, it's not because of the temp but because of plant genetics multi million year adaptations to seasonal variations in solar intensity and duration. A feb thaw or even mini torch won't do much harm. It's a lot more harmful as we get into March where solar intensity can get things going, but still early enough the pv is alive and well and come pay a visit afterward. Read this: http://msue.anr.msu.edu/news/winter_dormancy_and_chilling_in_woody_plants This ain't Florida!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 The last 3 years the trees didnt bloom until early May (except for a few isolated early ones)....and then on 2012 they began blooming in late March. Overall...id say late April is a good average. Last 3 years had late springs, I wouldn't use them as a judge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 0Z GFS liking an active look for better or worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishforsnow Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Sun angle has a lot to do with whether or not trees leave dormancy. Ever go to north/central Florida during winter? Trees mostly go barren, grass goes mostly dormant, it's not because of the temp but because of plant genetics multi million year adaptations to seasonal variations in solar intensity and duration. A feb thaw or even mini torch won't do much harm. It's a lot more harmful as we get into March where solar intensity can get things going, but still early enough the pv is alive and well and come pay a visit afterward. I seen Chinease Elms leave dormacy in late December back home in Iowa one time when it got very warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 12z GFS has mid 50Fs for around 20th... Saukville will be giddy. Hmmm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 glances at 12z models.... suicidebooth.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 5, 2016 Author Share Posted February 5, 2016 There was a definite signal for a potential sub forum wide storm in the day 10-12 timeframe on the 0z EPS. 12z op runs at least hinting at it as well. This coincides with when the PV tries to relax some. Always have to watch when cold comes and goes for a storm. We'll see how quickly this threat disintigrates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 There was a definite signal for a potential sub forum wide storm in the day 10-12 timeframe on the 0z EPS. 12z op runs at least hinting at it as well. This coincides with when the PV tries to relax some. Always have to watch when cold comes and goes for a storm. We'll see how quickly this threat disintigrates I'll give it about 3 days before it vanishes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 It can't be good to be discussing leaf foliage in this thread on February 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Still looks good for a potential storm like OHWeather said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 18z GFS for around and after Valentines Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Euro had it last night and today at 12z. So when does that thread start? Valentine's Day storm 2016! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 That cut off is so brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 18z GFS for around and after Valentines Day. This is the type of storm I can see working out more than a cutter. Cutters always seem to disappoint one way or the other for many of us. Too much WAA, huge dry slot, convection robbing moisture, etc. I'll take a hybrid clipper type system over a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.