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Winter 2015-16 Medium-Long Range Discussion


OHweather

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outside maybe our far eastern canadian friends, this is an awful look, it's not even close to being a good clipper pattern

test8.gif

That meandering low pressure depicted on the GFS would bring amazing totals to the Lakes region. Probably not your backyard though.

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you said that last time we had one of these boring cold dry spells and it was super lame...everywhere

 

Time frame?

 

Because I recall 30 inches of snow falling on me one week in Munising. That same snow is still there.

 

But, Chicago... I'm sure it sucked there.

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GRR NWS discussion just made me groan big time. He discussed how the MJO should be causing it to be very warm next week and how the models "may" change that way over the next couple days.

 

The MJO has no amplitude though. It's sitting on the circle of death right now.

 

Early week system might be something to watch. GEM and GFS want to park a low over lake MI and cause lake enhanced snow and light synoptic snows. Temps in the 20s to the west.

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you said that last time we had one of these boring cold dry spells and it was super lame...everywhere

It's been a repetitive pattern since November. nice cutting storm. Short lived Cold air mass. Pattern relaxes to normal or slightly above,but dry. Best hope is that your in the zone for snow when it cuts. Chicago has run the gamut: November record snow 11.2". December record sleet storm. Yesterday heavy rain and thunder. Next....

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A number of GEFS after 144hrs aren't as enthused as the OP with the clipper/arctic shot. The control run is starkly different.

Considering what GRR said this morning, I am not surprised. It is already coming in much more subdued than originally forecast as it is.

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GFS is relentless with winter through the entire run. Nasty cold spells upcoming.

It's funny how locals think spring is coming. Heck, January has been it for cold. I do think some people look forward to more sun than anything.

Add another NWS office that's says its going to be short lived.... Here is Buffalo NY

THIS DEEPENING TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A BURGEONING UPSTREAM WEST COAST RIDGE TO OPEN THE DOOR FOR A LOBE OF SUB-ARCTIC AIR TO PUSH SOUTHWARDS INTO THE NATIONS MID-SECTION...AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY MID WEEK. WHILE WE WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF VERY COLD WEATHER WITH THIS SCENARIO ON WEDNESDAY ...MANY WILL BE HAPPY TO KNOW THAT THE TURN TO COLDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED.

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Add another NWS office that's says its going to be short lived.... Here is Buffalo NY

THIS DEEPENING TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A BURGEONING UPSTREAM WEST COAST RIDGE TO OPEN THE DOOR FOR A LOBE OF SUB-ARCTIC AIR TO PUSH SOUTHWARDS INTO THE NATIONS MID-SECTION...AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY MID WEEK. WHILE WE WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF VERY COLD WEATHER WITH THIS SCENARIO ON WEDNESDAY ... :gun_bandana:MANY WILL BE HAPPY TO KNOW THAT THE TURN TO COLDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. :facepalm:

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GFS is relentless with winter through the entire run. Nasty cold spells upcoming.

It's funny how locals think spring is coming. Heck, January has been it for cold. I do think some people look forward to more sun than anything.

And just like that, the 00z laughs at cold in the fantasy range. It looks like April. 

 

Guess we just gotta sit back, and hope spring comes early. :) Here's to a good severe season and a torch throughout the spring and summer. 

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And just like that, the 00z laughs at cold in the fantasy range. It looks like April. 

 

Guess we just gotta sit back, and hope spring comes early. :) Here's to a good severe season and a torch throughout the spring and summer. 

 

It will flip back.... I hope we are troughing into mid April.

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lol.  Looks about right.  :axe:

 

It got a little better. Just need the low to dig like the GEM shows it and spin for awhile and fling moisture from the lake back westward. Model has two really decent clippers after that that go through by day 10.

 

acckucherasnowmw.png

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There's been significant volatility the past few days on the ensembles mid month and beyond. According to the LR gurus on the New England subforum, could be related to the handling of the MJO.

But anyway, today's and tonight's run of the GEFS and 2 of past 3 runs of the Euro EPS dump a trough/lower than climo heights back into the west with ridging/higher than climo heights eastern 1/3 of US beyond next weekend. Also some signal for low pressure over the Ohio Valley or west and positive precip anomalies. Latest Canadian ensembles are at odds with the others and want to keep ridging over the west. We'll see how things trend the next few days (& 00z EPS tonight), but some potential for a milder and more active pattern. Til then, have to hope for a clipper or two to trend stronger for areas outside the lake belts. Otherwise looks chilly and mainly dry NW flow.

Curious to what some of the LR guys on this subforum think about potential for a mid month pattern change.

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

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It will flip back.... I hope we are troughing into mid April.

The cold hasn't locked in all winter, what makes you think it will lock in now. And yes, the GFS drops the cold as expected. The euro also keeps the lowest hieghts situated further NE as it considers a transient trough idea.

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