andyhb Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 00z Euro bringing the massive longwave trough back late next week, not too surprising given the 12z EPS mean was favouring it again. With a Pacific jet streak spanning almost the entire northern basin and no blocking ridge in the west to stop it, hard to think that something won't come of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 If you want truly 2015ing, try a high risk in December that also busts, and certainly even that's a possibility if the EURO happens verbatim. Oh boy, don't remind me. Last big bust for me was July 13th, and I'm not looking forward to the next one! New Euro looks cool, but has 0 instability. So, rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 Oh boy, don't remind me. Last big bust for me was July 13th, and I'm not looking forward to the next one! New Euro looks cool, but has 0 instability. So, rain Assuming you are talking about your backyard, but further south that is certainly not the case. If you're expecting December severe at your latitude, you might need to refocus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 Assuming you are talking about your backyard, but further south that is certainly not the case. If you're expecting December severe at your latitude, you might need to refocus. Crazier things have happened. Arkansas, Mississippi, Texas, etc isn't really in our subforum, so I didn't see the point of bringing it up. Maybe they'll get some wedges hidden in all the trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 Crazier things have happened. Arkansas, Mississippi, Texas, etc isn't really in our subforum, so I didn't see the point of bringing it up. Maybe they'll get some wedges hidden in all the trees. It is fine to bring it up in the discussion as this would be a multi-facet mulit-forum system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 It is fine to bring it up in the discussion as this would be a multi-facet mulit-forum system. Alright, thanks for the heads up! Doesn't deserve a new post, but, 06z GFS is juiced. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 What's your average snowfall for November? Double digits? For my area which is about 5 miles due west of the APX NWS is around 20" average snowfall for November. We aerage around 150" of snowfall with the majority falling late November though late Janurary usually by mid-late Feb the lake begins to freeze. As with any LES belt those numbers can be a little discieving as it takes only one strong LES outbtreak to catch right back up. For example last year, we had almost 60" fall in November of course that is on the other end of extreme with 50"+ falling in about 3-4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 A few dfferent forcasts next week have my area around 50! Un-believable for this late in the year. Looking at long range we could be entering X-Mas week with less then 10" of snowfall which has to be pushing past records for Gaylord. Not certain of the "futility record", but this is so Dec '93 like. By Gaylord standards, nothing but dustings prior to the 23rd 24th, then look at your high on the 26th! NMI at it's best climo lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 Not certain of the "futility record", but this is so Dec '93 like. By Gaylord standards, nothing but dustings prior to the 23rd, then look at your high on the 26th. NMI at it's best climo lol 1993DEC-APX.PNG LOL that is awesome, where did you pull that from I would be intersted in checking that out. Also was winter 93 an el-nino year?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 LOL that is awesome, where did you pull that from I would be intersted in checking that out. Also was winter 93 an el-nino year?? No, 1994/95 was a Moderate Nino though. That year was much worse! Brown Christmas and holiday week which I took off specifically to ride, ride, ride. Snow of course was a no-show til Jan 4th when we all had to go back to work LOL. website for historical data: http://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 Looks like a decent chance at a shot of cold air in the 14th-17th time frame. Could get the lake belts active. Flow looks to be mostly westerly, so areas that benefit from that should pay attention. The cold looks to be very transient though, and long range models are indicating temperatures will stay above normal at least into the 3rd week of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 For my area which is about 5 miles due west of the APX NWS is around 20" average snowfall for November. We aerage around 150" of snowfall with the majority falling late November though late Janurary usually by mid-late Feb the lake begins to freeze. As with any LES belt those numbers can be a little discieving as it takes only one strong LES outbtreak to catch right back up. For example last year, we had almost 60" fall in November of course that is on the other end of extreme with 50"+ falling in about 3-4 days. The entire LES season might simply be delayed, but just as good. I really think this December will end up being the worst December for snow at all climate stations, state wide. We need lobes of arctic air to break off and blow through the region and right now the polar vortex over the pole is still tightening up. The entire run of the GFS has nothing to produce snow. Very rare for December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 No, 1994/95 was a Moderate Nino though. That year was much worse! Brown Christmas and holiday week which I took off specifically to ride, ride, ride. Snow of course was a no-show til Jan 4th when we all had to go back to work LOL. website for historical data: http://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/# When there is nowhere to ride during the Dec 26th through Jan 8th time-frame, it's a BAD winter. 2011-2012 was pretty bad, but even that winter had a decent period near the end of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 Haven't seen much talk about it, but it appears the gfs and euro ensemble have the NAO and AO heading to negative levels by mid December. I would think this bodes well for a change to colder....unless of course they're false signals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 Haven't seen much talk about it, but it appears the gfs and euro ensemble have the NAO and AO heading to negative levels by mid December. I would think this bodes well for a change to colder....unless of course they're false signals. Seems to be a trend so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 Haven't seen much talk about it, but it appears the gfs and euro ensemble have the NAO and AO heading to negative levels by mid December. I would think this bodes well for a change to colder....unless of course they're false signals. NAO maybe, the AO not a chance in hell. The polar vortex is extremely strong and centered over the pole, it would take a massive pattern shift to get that moving from the pole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 Seems to be a trend so far Where did you get this information from? It looks like the GEFS forecast is a mirror image of reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 4, 2015 Author Share Posted December 4, 2015 Seems to be a trend so far The Euro and it's ensembles seem to be hinting at a better PNA/EPO maybe 9-10 days out...but yeah, I suspect we'll be waiting a while for a true -AO to develop. I'm just hoping for some transient cold later in the month...something, anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 Where did you get this information from? It looks like the GEFS forecast is a mirror image of reality. I see what you're saying... but I don't think it is. But you could be right. I know it's been showing blocking in the fantasy range only to fade away. I got it from some dude's ramblings on a blog on Wunderground. It's on page 6 or 7 or something. There's lots of discussion/information to be read. http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Pcroton/comment.html?entrynum=113&page=1#commenttop Edit: and I found where he got it http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.ensm.diff.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 I see what you're saying... but I don't think it is. But you could be right. I know it's been showing blocking in the fantasy range only to fade away. I got it from some dude's ramblings on a blog on Wunderground. It's on page 6 or 7 or something. There's lots of discussion/information to be read. http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Pcroton/comment.html?entrynum=113&page=1#commenttop Edit: and I found where he got it http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.ensm.diff.shtml The NAO is the same as well: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 What I find intriguing is that the winter of 1899-1900 was apparently a strong El Nino year, a year where Buffalo didn't see it's first flake of snow until December 3. Also interesting is the fact that this followed February 1899 which, like February 2015, was brutally cold. According to a book I have about historic Buffalo blizzards, the winter of 1899-1900 went on to be Buffalo's snowiest in 14 years, despite the late start, with most of the snow falling in February and March. Similar pattern this year, perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 The NAO is the same as well: GEFS really hasn't had good luck with teleconnections lately... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 We all knew the likelihood of this pattern developing in early winter, so its not a real shocker. The amazing thing is the extent of the snowless landscape as far north as depicted. Things will improve in time, till then I'm enjoying the warmth and the extended balmy weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 Wow that is really quite weird that the GEFS teleconnection indices are so wrong at 14 days away. The sign of each teleconnection is flipped from reality at each time frame, and the magnitude seems to be something like the same thing, but smaller. It just seems like something is wrong, numerically. The weather isn't that hard to predict, is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 Wow that is really quite weird that the GEFS teleconnection indices are so wrong at 14 days away. The sign of each teleconnection is flipped from reality at each time frame, and the magnitude seems to be something like the same thing, but smaller. It just seems like something is wrong, numerically. The weather isn't that hard to predict, is it? Blame the raging jet over a vast data void. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 Debating on a post...keep in mind...the first graphics are for the last on the WPC. OPC 500mb North Pacific...note the split flow in the Sea of Okhotsk? November 20th 00z 12Z November 21st 00z 12z WPC 500mb Day 3-7 forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 Continued... November 22nd 00z 12z Finally...November 23rd 00z 12z WPC 500mb Day 3-7 forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 You just barely missed WPC's evening update JD Looks like another 20 day lead time victory for the BSR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 Looks like another 20 day lead time victory for the BSR Not sure it gets a whole lot more favorable for setting up a potential winter severe event than those Day 6/7 progs there. Strong sub tropical ridge centered over the Caribbean with an axis extending well north (likely blocking recycled flow and enabling very favorable moisture trajectories) and then a huge jet making landfall in a very favorable manner for carving out a large western/central US trough. We'll see what the ST jet has in store for this, i.e. will southern stream waves rob this of moisture. As of now though, the synoptics look pretty threatening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 Not sure it gets a whole lot more favorable for setting up a potential winter severe event than those Day 6/7 progs there. Yup... I called severe potential for Arkansas/Louisiana/Missouri back on the 20th. JD said I'm too far west, he said it'll be in the TN valley and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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