Hoosier Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Groundhog and JB...the new EE rule? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 i don't know about early spring but february looks super boring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 https://www.dnainfo.com/chicago/20160202/downtown/chicagos-spring-weather-80-degree-days-less-rain-early-summer-days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Between the groundhog and JB, it looks like the signal for an early spring is legit. Models don't show it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 I'll take that...cash in time for me. It's all about the lake-enhanced snows in these here parts. I'm super hyped about the NW flow and clippers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 When using long term patterns... Remember, 2011-2012 was supposed to be epic wall to wall cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 https://www.dnainfo.com/chicago/20160202/downtown/chicagos-spring-weather-80-degree-days-less-rain-early-summer-days Quite possible, especially if the Nino fade isn't delayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Quite possible, especially if the Nino fade isn't delayed. Sowing the seeds for another Hoosier forecast of a hyper hot/dry summer. But back on thread topic, the day 6-7 mauler on the 12z Euro looks sorta interesting. Not that any model can be counted on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Sowing the seeds for another Hoosier forecast of a hyper hot/dry summer. But back on thread topic, the day 6-7 mauler on the 12z Euro looks sorta interesting. Not that any model can be counted on... I don't know about hyper hot/dry but warmer than average should be favored at this point. No guarantees of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 From the pattern on the long range models, it appears a good pattern for severe weather this spring is coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 I don't know about hyper hot/dry but warmer than average should be favored at this point. No guarantees of course. I guess you probably need to root for the COLA CCSM3 model. http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/ Regardless, Nino still going strong...no pun intended. It'll be interesting to see the ENSO evolution through Spring and Summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Models don't show it. In the near and mid term yes, but LR hints at the possibility of mild temps. 1st half seasonal and the 2nd half AN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 18Z GFS gives MBY 12.8 inches from multiple clippers and LES. I will take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 For those looking for snow chances. CPC showing wetter around the Lakes. Looks like the forecast for the polar vortex is to break off a piece into Greenland, and eastern CA along with a piece in the North Atlantic or western Europe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Hard for me to get too excited about this potential clipper pattern coming up. Every one misses well northeast towards the eastern lakes. Euro shows something potentially early next week further southwest, but it's sort of on its own. EDIT: Guess the GEM shows something similar as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 very interesting look of a slowly rotating L on some of the models next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 So, has anyone seen Accuweather's spring forecast? *chuckles* In case you want to look/read: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2016-us-spring-forecast-march-snow-northeast-widespread-severe-weather-april/55085474 Not quite sure if this is the right place to put this, but since we haven't started a spring disco, I thought I'd just stop by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 So, has anyone seen Accuweather's spring forecast? *chuckles* In case you want to look/read: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2016-us-spring-forecast-march-snow-northeast-widespread-severe-weather-april/55085474 Not quite sure if this is the right place to put this, but since we haven't started a spring disco, I thought I'd just stop by. Got a chuckle out of the summer like warmth on the map. I think that Morch was a once in 50 year event or so for this region. Hard to repeat that. Phil must have created that forecast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Hard for me to get too excited about this potential clipper pattern coming up. Every one misses well northeast towards the eastern lakes. Euro shows something potentially early next week further southwest, but it's sort of on its own. EDIT: Guess the GEM shows something similar as well. GFS sort of has it also. Bunch of -SN patches rotating around a L. I know it's hard to be excited about small snow systems, when one big one goes to the north and one huge one goes up the East Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 I'm super hyped about the NW flow and clippers. Are you actually? Can't tell if you're being sarcastic or not... Looks like the only way we're going to get much snow in almost all of Michigan at one time... 18Z GFS gives MBY 12.8 inches from multiple clippers and LES. I will take it. Gives me almost 2 feet, but let's see how much that changes... very interesting look of a slowly rotating L on some of the models next week. GRR NWS talked about this in their evening discussion. Would make for some nice prolonged periods of snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Man if we can get it colder aloft by 2-4 degrees that could be an epic multi-day LES event on the west end of Lk Ontario on D6-7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 0Z GFS looks very interesting next Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 0Z GFS looks very interesting next Tuesday Looks like a couple days of off and on snow showers or flurries. Pretty typical outside the belts for lower Michigan. Looks like a moisture starved low and the GFS is over doing the qpf atp. I just don't buy this system without any major moisture source to feed into the storm unless you are near a snowbelt . The EC storm won't help out the cause. The good news it's 150+ hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Euro says the forum goes into storm mode around the 10th as the east coast cashes in again. Sigh. Can't wait for April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Let's hope for a NW trend from the GFS then. Worked for this storm. Seriously though, hopefully the area will catch some of these systems coming from the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 GRR NWS discussion just made me groan big time. He discussed how the MJO should be causing it to be very warm next week and how the models "may" change that way over the next couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 I don't know about hyper hot/dry but warmer than average should be favored at this point. No guarantees of course. a good ole fashioned early spring translating into a hot summer sounds awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 I'll take P002 and call it a winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Man if we can get it colder aloft by 2-4 degrees that could be an epic multi-day LES event on the west end of Lk Ontario on D6-7. Good eye. The euro has prolonged easterly flow from D5-D7 with 850's between -6 and -9c. 700mb RH values are AOA 50%. Not sure on shear values but looks like something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 outside maybe our far eastern canadian friends, this is an awful look, it's not even close to being a good clipper pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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