Chambana Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Euro backing up aleks idea of a low forming off the east coast, eventually down to 971 at hour 216. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 31, 2016 Author Share Posted January 31, 2016 The upcoming weather pattern isn't that hopeless IMO. With no real -NAO and a strong -EPO, whenever the PV moves around there will be opportunity for storms in our sub. The -EPO tends to favor phasing over the Plains and with no strong -NAO there will be room for a track west of the Apps whenever the PV lifts out and when it initially sinks south too. And with such an amplified pattern there should be clippers along with the potential for fairly top end cold IF we can lay a snow pack down. At the very least if all other snow chances fail LES belts should do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Looking like our next decent system to track would be in the Feb 9 range. Until then it looks pretty quiet, other than maybe a weak clipper in the eastern lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 The upcoming weather pattern isn't that hopeless IMO. With no real -NAO and a strong -EPO, whenever the PV moves around there will be opportunity for storms in our sub. The -EPO tends to favor phasing over the Plains and with no strong -NAO there will be room for a track west of the Apps whenever the PV lifts out and when it initially sinks south too. And with such an amplified pattern there should be clippers along with the potential for fairly top end cold IF we can lay a snow pack down. At the very least if all other snow chances fail LES belts should do well. Good post. Whether it produces or not remains to be seen...but what else can you ask for when looking at a long range pattern but potential? It not screaming torch or suppression, and with the above mentioned indicies (not to mention we cant seem to lose in Feb anymore), its not a bad look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 I am liking the look of the long term too with the northern stream taking over for the majority the latest run. A few clippers wont amount to 20" dumping but will bring a fresh winter look which has been so illusive this season. I'll take the c-2 clipper train this season over the prospect of a larger Southern moisture machine which is pitching a warm perfect game this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Interesting, the CFS which torched Feb all along has decided to go much colder on the last day of Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Interesting, the CFS which torched Feb all along has decided to go much colder on the last day of Jan. True, but most would want to pass on the dry and cold persistence we have seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Interesting, the CFS which torched Feb all along has decided to go much colder on the last day of Jan. The long range CFS defaults to warm. The earth is 1C warmer than it was 120 years ago, so by default the CFS must be programmed to be warm. Since the odds that the US will come up at least a fraction of a degree warmer than the 100 year average, it's a good bet. Shoddy, no skill modeling... but still a good bet. If you think I'm blowing smoke? Take a look, after short term maps, almost no map will show any blue shading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 I am liking the look of the long term too with the northern stream taking over for the majority the latest run. A few clippers wont amount to 20" dumping but will bring a fresh winter look which has been so illusive this season. I'll take the c-2 clipper train this season over the prospect of a larger Southern moisture machine which is pitching a warm perfect game this year. This! The landscape had a pristine winter look Nov 21-24 and Jan 10-16, everything else has been dirty, patchy snow or bare ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 This! The landscape had a pristine winter look Nov 21-24 and Jan 10-16, everything else has been dirty, patchy snow or bare ground. Until 2 days ago, there was significantly more of a snowy landscape west of Novi, than east of Novi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Until 2 days ago, there was significantly more of a snowy landscape west of Novi, than east of Novi. Yeah. Snow had been patchy here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Yeah. Snow had been patchy here. We were in Troy last Sunday and it was almost bone dry, much different than to the north or west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 We were in Troy last Sunday and it was almost bone dry, much different than to the north or west. Basically we had solid cover 10th-16th, then it was patchy (but more snow than grass) until a week ago it became more grass then snow, and now its all bare (just parking lot piles and a rogue drift or shovel pile). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Basically we had solid cover 10th-16th, then it was patchy (but more snow than grass) until a week ago it became more grass then snow, and now its all bare (just parking lot piles and a rogue drift or shovel pile). Yup 575-900 elevation was pretty weak. 900+ was in much better shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 This doesn't look so bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 31, 2016 Author Share Posted January 31, 2016 A strong -epo, this ain't. Looks fairly zonal. Whether something can slow down enough to "catch" is the key. 8-10th seems to be a time of interest, when maybe the PAC can be controlled enough to amplify something. But that is so far out.This is a very strong -EPO/+PNA coming up with a strong ridge from off the west coast all the way to the Pole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 31, 2016 Author Share Posted January 31, 2016 If it was a strong -epo, you wouldn't have any storm threat. The cold air would overpower everything. Looks like energetic northern energy trying to amplify, boosting a ridge up into the arctic. Ensembles are pretty blah on the EPO, though that doesn't mean much now. The Cleveland Superbomb/Superstorm 93 both had a sharp drop in the epo due to the amp(then a quick rise) for example. I remember a big sign of the February 09 bust was the lack of tank in the epo, telling us the energy wasn't gonna have the stuff for what the Ops were showing.The EPO can dump cold air in pretty far west which in the absence of a good -NAO can work for us. I do think there's a period of suppression past the threat around the 10th. We'll see though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 The EPO can dump cold air in pretty far west which in the absence of a good -NAO can work for us. I do think there's a period of suppression past the threat around the 10th. We'll see though You are correct.. See 13-14.. It worked wonders.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 If it was a strong -epo, you wouldn't have any storm threat. The cold air would overpower everything. Looks like energetic northern energy trying to amplify, boosting a ridge up into the arctic. Ensembles are pretty blah on the EPO, though that doesn't mean much now. The Cleveland Superbomb/Superstorm 93 both had a sharp drop in the epo due to the amp(then a quick rise) for example. I remember a big sign of the February 09 bust was the lack of tank in the epo, telling us the energy wasn't gonna have the stuff for what the Ops were showing. The strength of teleconnection indices isn't determined by the downstream storm threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 18z GFS LR might be the worst thing ever. Really, really getting sick of tundra impinging south of the Mason Dixon line every winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 18Z GFS has a good bit of LES on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 18Z GFS has a good bit of LES on it. If the GFS is to be believed, Outside of the LES, snowfall looks very grim through hour 204 for most of the sub forum. Minnesota and central Wisconsin look to do OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Just one of those winters. Snow climo overall sucks outside of lake belts in this part of the world anyways. KFWA averages one 6 inch snowfall a year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 With that said I enjoy when it snows a lot and stays on the ground. Just never expect it or get upset if it doesn't occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Got bored today and crunched some numbers. Since 1980 here's Toronto's snowstorm frequency (by amount). 15cm (6") + = 1.65 per winter 20cm (8") + = 1.02 per winter 25cm (10") + = 0.49 per winter (so basically 1 per 2 winters) 30cm (12") + = 0.2 per winter (1 per 5 winters) I don't know if you saw the above that SSC posted over in the Canada thread, but surprisingly Toronto doesn't make out much better than us down here. Just one of those winters. Snow climo overall sucks outside of lake belts in this part of the world anyways. KFWA averages one 6 inch snowfall a year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 I don't know if you saw the above that SSC posted over in the Canada thread, but surprisingly Toronto doesn't make out much better than us down here. I'm always surprised when out of towners are surprised by our snowfall ineptitude. When you build a city on the windward side of a Great lake, at the base of a ridge to the west that downslopes, in the middle of the W of the Apps synoptic dead-zone, this is the kind of crap you have to endure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 New Euro looks less impressive with Feb 9-10 system for most of the sub, but could be decent for the far eastern portions. Looking like we'll have a snoozer first half of Feb for most of us in this sub. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Rare JB vid this morning. Basically thinks his Feb being the worst month of the winter call ain't gonna happen. Hints that we get one more cold shot Feb 5th thru 15 then it's over. Unusual to see him wave a white flag like that on winter. All hail MORCH! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Rare JB vid this morning. Basically thinks his Feb being the worst month of the winter call ain't gonna happen. Hints that we get one more cold shot Feb 5th thru 15 then it's over. Unusual to see him wave a white flag like that on winter. All hail MORCH! Good. The sooner we end this misery th better. Bring on an early spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Good. The sooner we end this misery th better. Bring on an early spring. also believes the next storm will be west of the apps.... which is also kind of what the models are hinting at around day 10ish. I'm sure we'll be too far east so probably a nice shot for the central sub would be my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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