Powerball Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 I seem to remember a similar thing being said prior to the GHD storm last year. Just sayin... It depends on one's definition of "a strung out POS." Yes, it was definitely a solid big dog for many. But from a synoptic standpoint, its amplification was nothing like 12/1/2006, GHD 2011 or 12/28/15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Aww man, I wanted a shot at redemption after last time. Had to see if I still had it. Let's hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Polar vortex is off the pole now. Right now it looks like the main piece ends up over Europe in the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Its hard to believe that meteorological spring is almost a month away. Hope we can cash in a couple more times before the boomers and tulips. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Given the placement of the MJO and very positive WPO I find it hard to see much cold weather for the start of Feb... As for the cold in the second half in theory, it makes sense but the reality is far from a done deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 I seem to remember a similar thing being said prior to the GHD storm last year. Just sayin... that one was bulls-eyeing us for several days...it trended nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Given the placement of the MJO and very positive WPO I find it hard to see much cold weather for the start of Feb... As for the cold in the second half in theory, it makes sense but the reality is far from a done deal. To me, there is a disconnect between the forecast MJO (the Euro ens & the Canadian ens are lovely...phases 4 & 5 with increasing amplitudes...ugh) and the forecast patterns the Euro ens & Canadian ens show. Euro EPS Ens... Canadian GEPS Ens... The forecast patterns hardly resemble what typically results from higher amplitude MJO 4 & 5 in Februaries with a strong El Nino... Expected Feb pattern based on >1 amplitude MJO during strong Nino Phase/Octant 4 Phase/Octant 5 ...Plots courtesy of Raleigh Wx Interestingly, though, over the past couple of days GEFS MJO forecast (non-bias corrected) has backed away from going into 4 & 5 and now show some retrograding. The bias corrected GEFS MJO forecast...not so much. GFS Ens (GEFS) bias corrected GFS Ens (GEFS) non-bias corrected It's possible the ensemble pattern forecasts depict the p. vortex displacement underway offsetting the crappy effects of MJO 4 & 5. Nice PNA ridging on all ensemble pattern forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 To me, there is a disconnect between the forecast MJO (the Euro ens & the Canadian ens are lovely...phases 4 & 5 with increasing amplitudes...ugh) and the forecast patterns the Euro ens & Canadian ens show. Euro EPS Ens... mjo_eps_forecast_01-28-16.gif ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_240_00-01-28-16.png Canadian GEPS Ens... mjo_geps_forecast_01-28-16.gif geps-ens_z500a_nhem_d12-16_00-01-28-16.png The forecast patterns hardly resemble what typically results from higher amplitude MJO 4 & 5 in Februaries with a strong El Nino... Expected Feb pattern based on >1 amplitude MJO during strong Nino Phase/Octant 4 FebENMJOphase4gt1500mb.gif Phase/Octant 5 FebENMJOphase5gt1500mb.gif ...Plots courtesy of Raleigh Wx Interestingly, though, over the past couple of days GEFS MJO forecast (non-bias corrected) has backed away from going into 4 & 5 and now show some retrograding. The bias corrected GEFS MJO forecast...not so much. GFS Ens (GEFS) bias corrected mjo_gefs_forecast_01-28-16.gif GFS Ens (GEFS) non-bias corrected mjo_gefs_bc_forecast_01-28-16.gif It's possible the ensemble pattern forecasts depict the p. vortex displacement underway offsetting the crappy effects of MJO 4 & 5. Nice PNA ridging on all ensemble pattern forecasts. Lets all hope that is the vortex displacement happens the way its being depicted. If not, we could be sticking a fork in winter before it started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Lets all hope that is the vortex displacement happens the way its being depicted. If not, we could be sticking a fork in winter before it started. The PV displacement is happening as depicted but the energy transfer that's making it happen will, according to a tweet from Cohen, prevent a lock-in of below normal temps. That, along with the ongoing effects of the strong Nino will produce a more progressive pattern as we saw the first 10 days of this month....Nothing like the Horror of December. Per the MJO, the most recent Euro monthly plot shows the MJO progressing pretty fast. If correct, we should be out of the awful 4/5/6 phases. Chances are good a well placed MJO wave and a displaced PV will yield a really good wintery pattern w/much more snow. Not only that, this pattern could last well into March (Better late than never). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 The weeklies have very +ve precip anomalies across the eastern lakes in W2 of February. Perhaps the Feb streak will continue. The signal on the EPS is also strong for a significant rise in heights along the west coast ~2/8. This may be a window for a system to cut west of the apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 The weeklies have very +ve precip anomalies across the eastern lakes in W2 of February. Perhaps the Feb streak will continue. The signal on the EPS is also strong for a significant rise in heights along the west coast ~2/8. This may be a window for a system to cut west of the apps. The February streak is one of the more anomalous things in Detroits entire climate record. Its working on a full decade now. 2007 - 14.1" 2008 - 24.2" 2009 - 8.5" 2010 - 27.0" 2011 - 31.7" 2012 - 10.2" 2013 - 23.5" 2014 - 23.4" (double digit depth entire month, first time on record) 2015 - 26.4" (double digit depth entire month, second time on record). 6 of the last 8 Februarys have had over 23" of snow. Prior to that, in the previous 100 years, 1 Feb produced over 23" of snow! Normal February snowfall for Detroit in the 126 years before 2007 was approx 9". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 "Tornado outbreak likely", says Forbes. TORCON of 5 for day 5. Impressive. I'm pretty sure the last February tornado outbreak was Leap Day 2012. That was quite the outbreak sequence. TUESDAY A severe thunderstorm and tornado outbreak is likely, although there is some uncertainty over how far north unstable air will be able to reach as a warm front surges northward during the day. Severe thunderstorms in central and east LA, MS, west and north AL, east AR, southeast MO, south IL, south IN, KY, TN, extreme northwest GA. TORCON - 5 east MS, west AL; 4 - TN, KY, south IL, south IN, southwest MO; 3 rest of area. A squall line may push overnight into west NC, northwest SC, west GA and the west FL panhandle with spotty damaging gusts and a chance of a tornado. TORCON - 2 to 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 The GFS and ECMWF are hinting at a few more chances of snow storms this Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 At least long range remains cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 30, 2016 Author Share Posted January 30, 2016 The 12z Euro ensembles had a look that supported a lot of clippers and maybe some room for a bigger storm whenever the PV over Canada lifted out a little. Very stout ridging along the west coast straight to the pole. I think that idea has some support with the strat PV getting displaced off the pole and with the N. Pac low retrograding which is typical February El Niño climo. We'll see if this look holds. Would be worried that the pattern would be too suppressed for a lot of the sub but as the Super Bowl storm last year showed us (or GHD II I guess) it only takes a brief relaxation to get a bigger storm. I suspect the east isn't done either way...just hope we get something here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 The 12z Euro ensembles had a look that supported a lot of clippers and maybe some room for a bigger storm whenever the PV over Canada lifted out a little. Very stout ridging along the west coast straight to the pole. I think that idea has some support with the strat PV getting displaced off the pole and with the N. Pac low retrograding which is typical February El Niño climo. We'll see if this look holds. Would be worried that the pattern would be too suppressed for a lot of the sub but as the Super Bowl storm last year showed us (or GHD II I guess) it only takes a brief relaxation to get a bigger storm. I suspect the east isn't done either way...just hope we get something here too. At first glance, it looks like we're just going to be repeating the pattern we've seen for much of January, at least through the first half of February. Not awful if you're in the LES belts or just want some snowflakes constantly flying in the air and a bit of snow on the ground, but pretty bleak for any significant snowstorms or above average temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 30, 2016 Author Share Posted January 30, 2016 At first glance, it looks like we're just going to be repeating the pattern we've seen for much of January, at least through the first half of February. Not awful if you're in the LES belts or just want some snowflakes constantly flying in the air and a bit of snow on the ground, but pretty bleak for any significant snowstorms or above average temperatures. With cold and an active STJ you'll have some non-zero chance of something more, and I think clipper prospects would be decent. But I could see how it works out with a lack of a big storm in our sub. I personally like my chances for something else decent down here at some point, but if I'm getting hit odds are most of you guys aren't. January was pretty volatile, I suspect the cold will be more persistent in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 With cold and an active STJ you'll have some non-zero chance of something more, and I think clipper prospects would be decent. But I could see how it works out with a lack of a big storm in our sub. I personally like my chances for something else decent down here at some point, but if I'm getting hit odds are most of you guys aren't. January was pretty volatile, I suspect the cold will be more persistent in February.If that happens, major fail on the cfs for Jan and Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 At least long range remains cold. It can't snow if it's not cold...hopefully the storms come with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Some of the GFS runs hint at something bit Feb 9-10-11 in the Ohio Valley and Appalachians. Gulf of Mexico low turns into Appalachian snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 31, 2016 Author Share Posted January 31, 2016 I think the threat around the 10th has some legs...we'll see. Very impressive blocking disloges the PV south and there could be some energy kicking out of the SW in that timeframe. We'll see. Would need to be timed right or the PV would move in and suppress everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 I think the threat around the 10th has some legs...we'll see. Very impressive blocking disloges the PV south and there could be some energy kicking out of the SW in that timeframe. We'll see. Would need to be timed right or the PV would move in and suppress everything. Was just looking at the Euro and the EPS, if we did get snow before the cold moved in, it could be a very impressive cold snap with the PV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 GFS has been showing some nasty cold spilling into the CONUS, in this time frame, as Stebo said if we can lay down some snow, could be a major cold shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Another deep cold shot is the worst case scenario. You guys really itching to see another east coast bomb or something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Massive storm at the end of the 06Z GFS Sadly it's gotten that desperate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Massive storm at the end of the 06Z GFS Sadly it's gotten that desperate. Not happening. Hope for an early spring and try again in 2016-17. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Yesterday it was mentioned a clipper pattern was in store, in addition to that, Larry Cosgrove really seems to think a major winter storm will be taking aim at the OV, lower Lakes, then moving east around or shortly before Valentines Day. The signal for below normal temps is strong too. Trends for more wintry weather in Feb are there. Jan was very meh, though it did have at least wintry weather (just nothing exciting), it would appear Feb ONCE again has a chance to be winters golden boy. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Another deep cold shot is the worst case scenario. You guys really itching to see another east coast bomb or something ^^^This Not happening. Hope for an early spring and try again in 2016-17. ^^^And this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 I agree. Cold and dry has been the name of the game. And will be the nail in the coffin should this pattern repeat in the middle of February. Until then I'll enjoy my early taste of spring. 58 degrees today. Sweeeeet!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 We are off rhythm with the winter storm track. Probably another wester lakes cutter middle/late in the month. IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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