blizzardof96 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Not expecting anything of real significance with that GHD III storm in mby. Pretty good consensus right now of the low going west of here and just too much ridging out in front of the system. I won't bother wasting my time tracking this.Winter 15-16 goes on...... Have a drink. Make it a double. On me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 this is literally the only thing going for the next 150+ hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Have a drink. Make it a double. On me. Lol. I honestly have no optimism on this one. I know it's still a week out but models have been consistent in tracking the low well to our west which is isnt good track for a snowstorm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 We are a lost puppy in the woods this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 We are a lost puppy in the woods this winter. Even a blind squirrel will occasionally find a nut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Lol. I honestly have no optimism on this one. I know it's still a week out but models have been consistent in tracking the low well to our west which is isnt good track for a snowstorm here. January 1999. Seriously though....looks like a decent CAD signature even with western track. We'd probably still be in line for a front-end thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 GHDIII while impressive will be wet on the eastern flanks like all the rest of this season. While its fun to watch the progression of the system the truth there is a 5% chance of a snowy outcome for all of our region. Snowy backside with a early spring on tap, no matter what the mad looking rodent says.. Its funny, even in the deepest cold of the season it still feels like tropical compared to the last two seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 GHDIII while impressive will be wet on the eastern flanks like all the rest of this season. While its fun to watch the progression of the system the truth there is a 5% chance of a snowy outcome for all of our region. Snowy backside with a early spring on tap, no matter what the mad looking rodent says.. Its funny, even in the deepest cold of the season it still feels like tropical compared to the last two seasons. It's funny you mention that. I have heard many people talk about how January has been "so mild" when in actuality, it's been very normal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 It's funny you mention that. I have heard many people talk about how January has been "so mild" when in actuality, it's been very normal...Compared to the last couple of years it's felt mild. Last two January's have been very cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 not bad, especially west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 January 1999. Seriously though....looks like a decent CAD signature even with western track. We'd probably still be in line for a front-end thump. The setup in Jan 1999 had a frigid airmass in front of it like -30 850 MBtemps whereas this looks like -10 850 temps. Regardless I'd rather the storm be all rain since whatever snow/ice we'd get would melt anyway.Look I hope I eat my own crow but just not felling it right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 going to need that western trough to dig quite a bit more than advertised otherwise lee side cyclogenesis is going to be way too far north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 going to need that western trough to dig quite a bit more than advertised otherwise lee side cyclogenesis is going to be way too far north Other path is to have the departing clipper slow/bomb over Atlantic Canada which would strengthen confluence and force the thing to bowling ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Other path is to have the departing clipper slow/bomb over Atlantic Canada which would strengthen confluence and force the thing to bowling ball. yeah that works but i think it lowers the ceiling for a potential bomb part of the problem with hoping for future digging is the pac firehose that really pushes the action east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 The quasi zonal flow over the next week might cost us a big dog. Right now this is a yooper special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 yeah that works but i think it lowers the ceiling for a potential bomb part of the problem with hoping for future digging is the pac firehose that really pushes the action east For sure. It'll be a strung out POS but with a good gulf connection should still be good for a swath of 6-10" I'd think. Sign me up now even if that's the upper limit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 GGEM looks like it's going to continue to break off pieces of energy from the western trough in a piecemeal fashion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Parallel Euro from 00z Shows some severe potential from St. Louis on south on GHD. Dews AOA 60 up to southern IL. Also showing a nice snowstorm from Sioux City up through MSP into northern WI. Still a long ways out but the SUX through MSP corridor has to be feeling somewhat optimistic about some significant snow potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 going to need that western trough to dig quite a bit more than advertised otherwise lee side cyclogenesis is going to be way too far north Problem with the trough digging more, would be that those to the East would get screwed, at least in a flatter track like SSC mentions it is a wider swath of snow for most everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 12z GEFS mean SLP track is well south of the the op run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47745-ghd-iii-possible-winter-storm-february-1st-3rd/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Nice post from Isotherm. Notice that the projected geopotential heights on the ECMWF ensemble mean for early February is an apparent reflection of the stratospheric state. Very strong wave-1 forcing (up to record daily high wave heights actually, around 1700 gpm at 10hpa) will be pushing the 10-70hpa vortex off the pole and toward northern Europe by the beginning of February. We have some bottom-up activity but also the true upper stratospheric perturbation via the wave-1. In response, 500mb heights quickly rise across the pole, forcing the return of the -AO. Depending upon the resolution of the stratospheric event, we may have a period in the first 7-10 days of February in which the AO is negative while contemporaneously the NAO persists in a positive state via the influence of the vortex sitting near NW Europe. As I posted last week, the anomalously strong condition of the vortex may prevent a major SSW, but I think a minor SSW will probably occur in that Jan 30-Feb 4 period. Typically a wave-1 of this extreme amplitude would have no problem inducing a major SSW, but this vortex isn't going down without a fight. Some ensemble members suggest a major SSW, but I'm doubting it right now. The ECMWF on the berlin site nearly reversed the zonal winds at 1 hpa at the beginning of February. Nonetheless, there will be more than sufficient stratospheric perturbation continuing to prevent the resumption of mean +NAM conditions in the troposphere. If we continue to shift that vortex over toward Europe, I would anticipate that modelling becomes more bullish on Greenland geopotential height rises as well. Tropospherically, Pacific +AAM, current GWO state, and location of strongest upper divergence are suggestive of the retrogression of the West Coast trough [Feb 1-2] back into the GOAK/Aleutians for February. Thus, the idea of +PNA / SE US trough is pretty high confidence for February. I think we'll attempt a neutral to potentially -EPO at times; climatologically, stronger Nino's feature their most conducive EPO pattern in February. We'll see. I'm fairly confident we're looking at a favorable PNA / EPO / AO state overall for early February. The NAO, again, may lag due to that vortex presence, but it too should eventually flip back negative. Bottom line, winter, I continue to think, just began snowfall wise in the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Pretty crazy to see ~1 EHI as far north as west-central Indiana on the long-range GFS. Over on another forum, I drew a connection between this coming system and the December 23 system. Just like the December 23 system, the STJ is going to cross through Mexico and pump into the Gulf of Mexico, and moisture will advect northward possibly as early January 30. At this point, the trough hasn't even formed yet. Then, of course, you have WAA associated with the system itself... which starts on February 1. But we're not seeing any areas of 3-4 EHI on the GFS like it was showing at this range for the December 23 system. My comparison isn't about severe potential. It's about the large amount of moisture ahead of the system.. which, of course, would probably spark severe weather somewhere. As it stands, I don't see it being as widespread or intense as 12/23, but it's worth watching in case GFS is underestimating the moisture... which is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 AER update on the AO and polar vortex. SummaryThe Arctic Oscillation (AO) is currently slightly negative but is predicted to jump moderately positive this week. The AO reversal is reflective of the pattern relaxation of strongly positive pressure/geopotential height anomalies over the Arctic basin, especially on the North Atlantic side, and negative pressure/geopotential height anomalies across the mid-latitudes. This is a strengthening of the polar vortex (PV) in the troposphere, which has pulled the Jet Stream poleward. The return to positive AO atmospheric state will result in an overall milder pattern across the Northern Hemisphere including the Eastern United States, Europe and Western Asia. The one exception is East Asia, which in part is due to extensive snow cover all winter that has insulated the region to the penetration of milder maritime air. A significant disturbance or perturbation of the stratospheric polar vortex (PV) is underway that could potentially culminate in a major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) sometime in February. Therefore we interpret the predicted milder pattern as a relaxation of the recent cold pattern rather than a pattern reversal. The perturbation of the polar vortex is likely to dominate the evolution of the temperature variability across the Northern Hemisphere (NH) for the duration of winter. The expected SSW should favor for much of February and even into March a negative AO, and relatively cold temperatures for the NH mid-latitude continents. As the evolution of the PV becomes clearer in the models we are growing more confident in ridging across western North America, the return of cross polar flow and cold temperatures to the Eastern United States. With the PV shifting into Eurasia, temperatures will likely turn colder as well, with the cold pattern continuing across East Asia but with more uncertainty for Western Europe. An eventual polar vortex split would likely yield the most widespread cold across the NH with cold temperatures for both the Eastern United States and Europe. http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 "Ridging in the west... Colder than normal in the east well into March" Of course. Was there ever any other possibility... Well, that's pretty much been the lock and loaded pattern (aside from a couple brief exceptions) since August 2012... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 For sure. It'll be a strung out POS but with a good gulf connection should still be good for a swath of 6-10" I'd think. Sign me up now even if that's the upper limit. Aside from 12/28/15, the bolded has been the only thing we can muster up around here in terms of snowstorms. And there's no convincing reason to expect any different with the upcoming system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 "Ridging in the west... Colder than normal in the east well into March" Of course. Was there ever any other possibility... Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk They are banking hard on the PV split, if that doesn't happen or the PV ends up in Siberia instead their call isn't going to work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47745-ghd-iii-possible-winter-storm-february-1st-3rd/ Aww man, I wanted a shot at redemption after last time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Aside from 12/28/15, the bolded has been the only thing we can muster up around here in terms of snowstorms. And there's no convincing reason to expect any different with the upcoming system. I seem to remember a similar thing being said prior to the GHD storm last year. Just sayin... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.