Geos Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 0z GFS had a similar evolution for GHD III, but just a little further north. Low kicked out a little faster on this run and a 1035 high comes southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Pretty impressive continuity with a signal for a potent storm system in the Feb 1-2 range from the GFS. Should start to see the first guesses from the Euro in the next few days as it finally gets in the Euro's range. No matter what happens with it I'm hoping it's a widespread spread the wealth type storm system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 GGEM has the system too. Low cuts up from the SW instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 GGEM has the system too. Low cuts up from the SW instead. I like this timeframe for something significant...hopefully on the cold side! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 GFS has a prolonged winter storm for the I-80/90 corridor/lower Great Lakes stretching 3 days now. 1st-3rd. Looking a lot like how GHDB I started with a lead wave and then the main show the next day. Had the exact same thought goes when I saw that run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Euro also has a bigger system forming in the TX/OK panhandle. So, who's starting the thread. 06z GFS blows this E coast storm out of the water. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Euro also has a bigger system forming in the TX/OK panhandle. So, who's starting the threat. I vote Chicago Storm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ingyball Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Or maybe I should start it and see if I have any Rookie luck? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Euro also has a bigger system forming in the TX/OK panhandle. So, who's starting the thread. Or maybe I should start it and see if I have any Rookie luck? I'd wait a few more days... lol I vote Chicago Storm lol I do think him or TS12 have some good mojo for big storm threads, so I vote one of them when we do go for a thread in a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 There's definitely a strong signal on the ensembles for a significant storm in the region in that February 1-3 timeframe. Pretty impressive clustering of the individual members given lead time. Hopefully whatever happens is white and not warm/wet for here because now that where I grew up is getting smoked, we need to make up for it with a big dog. I like that the ensemble means and individual members are hinting at high pressure spreading southeast from the Plains. We'll need the baroclinic zone to be forced southeast enough to keep the warmth from southeast ridging at bay. The 500 mb anomalies are also showing ridging over AK, so it's possible there could be enough cold air around to help. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 the GHDIII storm is going to be a rainer, guys Sorry Ricky, Alek already called it two days ago. Next. Seriously, I look forward to your input. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 I'd wait a few more days... lolAgree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Sorry Ricky, Alek already called it two days ago. Next. Seriously, I look forward to your input. Haha, I'm confident that if we see a full ejection out of the well modeled mean western trough, it will be rain. Obviously lots of other potential scenarios on the table but I just don't see that one working in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Yea this was painfully obvious this would take a December type track through the Great Lakes. Chicago to Saginaw line points south...slim chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 I am liking the chances!! Let's get something big!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Hoping Kermie starts GHDIII, that's if he is free..... By the looks of the indices this region of time has some good potential for the GL region. Lets get a good snow followed by some cold temps to keep the snow pack intact for a few weeks. Then torch away.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 12z GFS and Canadian keep the timeframe interesting/impactful around GHD...details to be ironed out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 There's definitely a strong signal on the ensembles for a significant storm in the region in that February 1-3 timeframe. Pretty impressive clustering of the individual members given lead time. Hopefully whatever happens is white and not warm/wet for here because now that where I grew up is getting smoked, we need to make up for it with a big dog. I like that the ensemble means and individual members are hinting at high pressure spreading southeast from the Plains. We'll need the baroclinic zone to be forced southeast enough to keep the warmth from southeast ridging at bay. The 500 mb anomalies are also showing ridging over AK, so it's possible there could be enough cold air around to help. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk This setup as currently modeled would also favor a zone of ice imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 At this point, the most important part is that we have SOMETHING to track. It could be much worse (complete and utter boredom). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 GGEM slams the east coast again. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 GGEM slams the east coast again. Ugh. Some support for an eastern storm in the 5-6 day timeframe but that's a pretty nice run. Look at it this way...if it happens, the meltdown will be more epic when our favored time comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 We're boned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Some support for an eastern storm in the 5-6 day timeframe but that's a pretty nice run. Look at it this way...if it happens, the meltdown will be more epic when our favored time comes. The euro doesn't have the noreaster next week, it sends it out off the se coast. The ggem does have a noreaster. I wonder if that's the difference between whether or not the day 10 storm cuts early and is warm vs. coming further south. With the nao and ao much more positive by the end of next week, and much less blocking, it would seem strange that another storm would end up firing up the coast again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 The euro doesn't have the noreaster next week, it sends it out off the se coast. The ggem does have a noreaster. I wonder if that's the difference between whether or not the day 10 storm cuts early and is warm vs. coming further south. With the nao and ao much more positive by the end of next week, and much less blocking, it would seem strange that another storm would end up firing up the coast again. It is the GGEM, it will be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Holy smokes @ the CFS torch. I might have to get the grill ready for Super Bowl Sunday. At this point, I think it comes down to what the PV does or else we're probably looking at a decently above average first half of February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Euro says congrats Fargo to Duluth. Also some road salt washing rain showers for the majority of the sub. 10 more days to watch this puppy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 This system, at the very least, will provide something to watch for the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Holy smokes @ the CFS torch. I might have to get the grill ready for Super Bowl Sunday. At this point, I think it comes down to what the PV does or else we're probably looking at a decently above average first half of February. The CFS is accurate to about 10 days, then it goes down -- dramatically. We were supposed to torch this month, we are going to end up posting a negative anomaly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 The Euro solution doesn't seem possible when using climo. The GFS looks more reasonable. That's more like a mid to late March track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 18z GFS track is a little farther south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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