Stebo Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 The Euro has PWATs to almost 2" to Southern Wisconsin at day 9.5-10. As Andy mentioned the dew points are record territory for this time of year as well, hell it brings 55 dew points to the UP of Michigan and Green Bay. This is probably by far one of the most anomalous runs I have ever seen from a weather model. The part that does carry some credibility to the period is that there will be very strong jet of 180 to 200 knots running the entire length of the Pacific in a couple days before diving into the Southwest, that part looks pretty certain, the details afterwards are highly subject to change. However you throw that much energy into the Southwest, you are going to get a significant system to come out of it. Considering the PNA is forecast to flip at that time and the NAO/AO are going to be very positive, this isn't going to be a snowstorm for most of us, which also lends credibility to the Euro's depiction. Needless to say this is something that interests me very much as I have been watching this jet streak for several days on the models and it has not wavered one bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 You'd be wrong. I like being wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LansingWeather Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 The Euro has PWATs to almost 2" to Southern Wisconsin at day 9.5-10. As Andy mentioned the dew points are record territory for this time of year as well, hell it brings 55 dew points to the UP of Michigan and Green Bay. This is probably by far one of the most anomalous runs I have ever seen from a weather model. The part that does carry some credibility to the period is that there will be very strong jet of 180 to 200 knots running the entire length of the Pacific in a couple days before diving into the Southwest, that part looks pretty certain, the details afterwards are highly subject to change. However you throw that much energy into the Southwest, you are going to get a significant system to come out of it. Considering the PNA is forecast to flip at that time and the NAO/AO are going to be very positive, this isn't going to be a snowstorm for most of us, which also lends credibility to the Euro's depiction. Needless to say this is something that interests me very much as I have been watching this jet streak for several days on the models and it has not wavered one bit. GRR also mentioned it in their week 2 forecast which is a very rare forecast. Very interestingto be sure. I'd rather snow but I like any extreme weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 I'd be all for one last severe weather outbreak. Then, it can snow all it wants until April 1st. Wouldn't it be pretty funny to have the first HIGH risk of the year in December? Truly 2015ing. Not saying by any means it will be HIGH risk or even have a risk at all. Just banter/speculation 330 am update: SPC mentions an active pattern beginning in the 8-9 day time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 that jet we've kinda been seeing this kind of solution a lot lately but this pattern is even more amplified heck of a solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 that jet we've kinda been seeing this kind of solution a lot lately but this pattern is even more amplified heck of a solution with the additional energy rounding the back side of the western trough and that ridge off the se coast, I would imagine that trough will be in no hurry to move east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 snowmobile hell fire right there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 Conversation that I had with Maurice on Nov 23rd... The Day 7 from today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 Overconvective in the Gulf but the idea similar to the ECMWF is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 Looks like it could be interesting in about 10 days. Some things I'd watch in a broad sense as far as severe weather potential: Do we actually get a strong system and not transition toward something more strung out? Is there a long enough period for good moisture return? Will mid level lapse rates be decent or better? Climo wise, severe weather in December is not that common anywhere in the region, but it's even more rare north of 40N. Of course there are exceptions and as we just saw with the November snowstorm, strong outliers do occur. But it's something to at least think about especially at this long distance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 ^ And shortly after that warm system, we start tapping colder Arctic air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 Slightly different artic intrusion than the last few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 snowmobile hell fire right there December riding is looking grim. It's garbage everywhere, even Canada. That will change by the end of the month though, their averages drop another 15+ degrees. When you average daily highs in the low teens, you can afford a +15F month and still have snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 Just as long as the pattern turns colder around Xmas and points after for my 6 day Boyne trip. I will be happy. Until then I could care less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 December riding is looking grim. It's garbage everywhere, even Canada. That will change by the end of the month though, their averages drop another 15+ degrees. When you average daily highs in the low teens, you can afford a +15F month and still have snow. This whole month will be a wash for just about everyone except the big mountains. I would still be cautious about parts of canada as it seems the modified pacific air has had no problems hitting much farther north than normal this year. I guess if he get far enough you will eventually find snow arctic circle perhaps ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 That trough A high moves up towards the pole on the EURO 96 hours out from eastern Siberia and parks itself there through 240 hours. AO should fall then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 ^ And shortly after that warm system, we start tapping real arctic air. Ir's going to be hard for arctic air to make it into the CONUS given the huge vortex over the Bering Strait, which extends at times into Kamchatka on the west side and the Beaufort Sea to the east. That "black hole" is ensuring that mild Pacific air moves across Canada. The height anomaly posted above shows that the 540dm contour extends as far north as central Hudson Bay and the tip of extreme northern Quebec. We're seeing a sort of hybrid ENSO pattern with the strong North Pacific low expected in El Nino combined with a -PNA developing mid-month, which is more typical of La Nina. Neither of the features, unfortunqtely, brings cold or snow to the Midwest, Lakes, or Northeast. Climo shows that the strong NPAC low present in El Nino winters tends to retrograde from its current position in the Gulf of Alaska in December to an Aleutian low by February. This would support more of a -EPO/+PNA and a more wintry pattern, as is typical in Nino February and March periods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 Ir's going to be hard for arctic air to make it into the CONUS given the huge vortex over the Bering Strait, which extends at times into Kamchatka on the west side and the Beaufort Sea to the east. That "black hole" is ensuring that mild Pacific air moves across Canada. The height anomaly posted above shows that the 540dm contour extends as far north as central Hudson Bay and the tip of extreme northern Quebec. We're seeing a sort of hybrid ENSO pattern with the strong North Pacific low expected in El Nino combined with a -PNA developing mid-month, which is more typical of La Nina. Neither of the features, unfortunqtely, brings cold or snow to the Midwest, Lakes, or Northeast. Climo shows that the strong NPAC low present in El Nino winters tends to retrograde from its current position in the Gulf of Alaska in December to an Aleutian low by February. This would support more of a -EPO/+PNA and a more wintry pattern, as is typical in Nino February and March periods. Well said. My point on the trough is that it is very broad. Only need low 30s for a good snowstorm. Rather have an active pattern, whether it is rain or snow vs. cold, dry and suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LansingWeather Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 This whole month will be a wash for just about everyone except the big mountains. I would still be cautious about parts of canada as it seems the modified pacific air has had no problems hitting much farther north than normal this year. I guess if he get far enough you will eventually find snow arctic circle perhaps ??? Crazy to see even the Keweenaw with highs in the 40s through this week....just bizarre Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 Nice, that jet coming in looks like it stretches a quarter of the way around the globe (at that latitude). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 Nice, that jet coming in looks like it stretches a quarter of the way around the globe (at that latitude). Those low heights across the PAC are making it possible to sustain any cold air in North America. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 Those low heights across the PAC are making it possible to sustain any cold air in North America. About time we see something like this in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 Crazy to see even the Keweenaw with highs in the 40s through this week....just bizarre A few dfferent forcasts next week have my area around 50! Un-believable for this late in the year. Looking at long range we could be entering X-Mas week with less then 10" of snowfall which has to be pushing past records for Gaylord. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 A few dfferent forcasts next week have my area around 50! Un-believable for this late in the year. Looking at long range we could be entering X-Mas week with less then 10" of snowfall which has to be pushing past records for Gaylord. What's your average snowfall for November? Double digits? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 Well said. My point on the trough is that it is very broad. Only need low 30s for a good snowstorm. Rather have an active pattern, whether it is rain or snow vs. cold, dry and suppressed. Exactly. It will surely change in these next few blah weeks, but technically as of 12/3, Detroit is running at 300% of seasonal snowfall to data average, and Chicago is 625% And it has been warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 Nice, that jet coming in looks like it stretches a quarter of the way around the globe (at that latitude). Yep. DEfinitely tons of potential for some fun weather starting the middle of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 I'd be all for one last severe weather outbreak. Then, it can snow all it wants until April 1st. Wouldn't it be pretty funny to have the first HIGH risk of the year in December? Truly 2015ing. Not saying by any means it will be HIGH risk or even have a risk at all. Just banter/speculation 330 am update: SPC mentions an active pattern beginning in the 8-9 day time frame If you want truly 2015ing, try a high risk in December that also busts, and certainly even that's a possibility if the EURO happens verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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