Winter 2015-16 Medium-Long Range Discussion

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

Well...um...yeah...glad northern lower mi has done well. Will be up there in a few days to enjoy. Will be nice getting away from this winter wx sh#hole. Otherwise pattern going into early February looks "interesting". Maybe something can deliver locally.

 

I bet the people at IWX are enjoying the easy AFD's right now.

[Northern_IN_Wx]

I bet the people at IWX are enjoying the easy AFD's right now.

We actually enjoy the extreme/challenging weather. For me it is more difficult during the quiet periods..,especially night shifts. IMO coordination with surrounding offices is the most difficult aspect of our job.

[Stebo]

We actually enjoy the extreme/challenging weather. For me it is more difficult during the quiet periods..,especially night shifts. IMO coordination with surrounding offices is the most difficult aspect of our job.

I can concur when it comes to observing too, these days of nothing drive me insane. I love coming into work and having a snowstorm or severe weather to cover.

[michsnowfreak]

Clippers are at least consistent snow producers, if not always heavy. And there is always the chance that they over perform. They are the most reliable synoptic events by far, so I'd take my chances.

Agree 100%

[nwohweather]

We actually enjoy the extreme/challenging weather. For me it is more difficult during the quiet periods..,especially night shifts. IMO coordination with surrounding offices is the most difficult aspect of our job.

I can't imagine what it's like in summer in some places out west that get virtually no weather other than heat. One great thing about being in the Midwest is all year long you have pretty active weather honestly and multiple modes of it too. Really challenges all aspects of your forecasting skills

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[Powerball]

I can't imagine what it's like in summer in some places out west that get virtually no weather other than heat.

 

 

I imagine the same way it is in some parts of Alaska...

[chasmosnow]

Early week system has been showing up consistently and seems to be getting more aggressive with precip amounts. I'd be thrilled to get 3-4" at this point.

 

Yes,

Our glacier needs something so that it no longer looks like three week old snow.Model consistency so far makes one hopeful.

[Hoosier]

the GHDIII storm is going to be a rainer, guys

Right up your alley.

[miller.b.time]

So, I know this is kind of a banter-y question, but nothing else seems to be going on in the models atm: I moved to central IN from central VA a few months back (am I kicking myself right now or what?), so I'm wondering what—apart from clippers—are our major snow producers in these parts? Out East the coastals could get a bit dicey wrt temps, but if they produced, they *produced*. Do we get anything comparable out here that I should gear up for (I mean, in winters to come, I guess...)? I'm just not at all familiar with the general patterns in this part of the country. But I'm excited about the prospect of getting snow that sticks around for more than two days.

[Jonger]

I can't imagine what it's like in summer in some places out west that get virtually no weather other than heat. One great thing about being in the Midwest is all year long you have pretty active weather honestly and multiple modes of it too. Really challenges all aspects of your forecasting skills

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Southern California is probably the worst.

 

High cost of living, no interesting weather.

[Hoosier]

So, I know this is kind of a banter-y question, but nothing else seems to be going on in the models atm: I moved to central IN from central VA a few months back (am I kicking myself right now or what?), so I'm wondering what—apart from clippers—are our major snow producers in these parts? Out East the coastals could get a bit dicey wrt temps, but if they produced, they *produced*. Do we get anything comparable out here that I should gear up for (I mean, in winters to come, I guess...)? I'm just not at all familiar with the general patterns in this part of the country. But I'm excited about the prospect of getting snow that sticks around for more than two days.

First of all, if you were able to road trip for the current storm and chose not to, shame on you.

As far as central Indiana, other snow producing systems include Gulf lows and what we call panhandle hookers (from Texas) but the latter variety often tracks a bit too far north to benefit your area. Hate to be a debbie downer but Indy area big snowstorm climo is not that great. Sometimes it's a matter of luck though as there was a storm in December 2004 that produced around 10" in Indianapolis but 30"+ in southeastern Indiana.

[cyclone77]

GHDIII still present on 00z GFS.  Most of us get rain, with some wet snow at the end.  Another nice hit for northwest half of IA points north and east.  Northern/western IA certainly hasn't suffered from this strong nino to be sure.

[IllinoisWedges]

GFS pulling mid 50 dews up into N Illinois, lol. It'd be quite the coincidence to get ANOTHER GHD storm. Hopes are high. 

 

LR Euro and GFS have the SE ridge returning and the W trof coming back into play right around GHD. It's a sign!!

[Geos]

Looks like December 28th all over again in southern WI!

Long time to watch it still.

 

Looking more likely for a 2-4" event north of I-80 on Monday night/Tuesday.

[cyclone77]

Looks like December 28th all over again in southern WI!

Long time to watch it still.

 

Looking more likely for a 2-4" event north of I-80 on Monday night/Tuesday.

 

I'll pass on that please.

[IWXwx]

All you Warministas take heart:

 

[sokolow]

Southern California is probably the worst.

High cost of living, no interesting weather.

I think I mentioned in the banter thread a couple weeks ago with the storm train coming ashore SGX had in one day: torrential rain, flash flooding, mudslides, high surf, high wind, tornadoes, and a blizzard in the mountains.

And there was an earthquake.

I always thought given the huge population, varied terrain from coast to alpine to desert, transport chokepoints through high passes, and critical interested groups using the forecasts that forecasting for LOX or SGX must get real exciting sometimes

[sokolow]

I think it has to be a little nerve wracking doing the forecasting during fire season or trying to nail down the timing of the Sta Anas. I would love to hear a SW met give their take, or talk abouthow the fire agencies perform and act on their weather analysis

[A-L-E-K]

I think you got it right. Long period of extreme boredom punctuated by high impact events.

[miller.b.time]

First of all, if you were able to road trip for the current storm and chose not to, shame on you.

As far as central Indiana, other snow producing systems include Gulf lows and what we call panhandle hookers (from Texas) but the latter variety often tracks a bit too far north to benefit your area. Hate to be a debbie downer but Indy area big snowstorm climo is not that great. Sometimes it's a matter of luck though as there was a storm in December 2004 that produced around 10" in Indianapolis but 30"+ in southeastern Indiana.

Trust me, if I hadn't started a new job this week, I'd have been camping out on my best friend's couch in Charlottesville. (And even with the job, I still debated whether or not just to do it, although my wife reminded me that wouldn't be "prudent". ) I'll probably always regret missing this one.

And I sort of figured that. It seems like we're sort of in-between the tracks for most of the big snowstorms, based on what I've seen. Always hope, I guess. At least what we lack in snow, we seem to make up in severe. Thanks for the info! Looking forward to being a bit more active here than I was in the MA forum (I probably need to learn some more first!).

[chasmosnow]

0006z GFS much colder ensembles well as OP. Has look of Feb 1959 for southern WI.But I guess we had better wait and see on that.

 

Given this El Nino never expected to see a pattern this promising come Feb. of this year.

Cant quite believe in the cold  the operational is forecasting at 240 hours as most of the sub forum would get a major snow and how often does that happen? But major system likly.  Pinning down its track is going to be interesting.

 

 

[KokomoWX]

Trust me, if I hadn't started a new job this week, I'd have been camping out on my best friend's couch in Charlottesville. (And even with the job, I still debated whether or not just to do it, although my wife reminded me that wouldn't be "prudent". ) I'll probably always regret missing this one.

And I sort of figured that. It seems like we're sort of in-between the tracks for most of the big snowstorms, based on what I've seen. Always hope, I guess. At least what we lack in snow, we seem to make up in severe. Thanks for the info! Looking forward to being a bit more active here than I was in the MA forum (I probably need to learn some more first!).

 

Welcome to the subforum and central Indiana.  There is a lot of winter heartbreak here with storms missing to the south or north, dry slots, or WAA and pingers.  Learn to love a good sleet storm.  

 

The good news is we have a decent but usually not devastating severe weather like in the south.  However many storms are squall lines moving at interstate speeds and are at night.  Always fun to storm spot those.  

[A-L-E-K]

just keeps getting worse and worse on the GFS

[JayPSU]

just keeps getting worse and worse on the GFS

Maybe for your area, for central Ohio, it looks fantastic.  Only problem is it's during the fantasy land time period post 200 hours.

[dilly84]

Maybe for your area, for central Ohio, it looks fantastic. Only problem is it's during the fantasy land time period post 200 hours.

That's what I just messaged Buckeye. Back to back slammers. February 1st through February 7th. Make the thread haha.

[KokomoWX]

Buckeye would be in heaven.  

[IllinoisWedges]

just keeps getting worse and worse on the GFS

When is it too early to talk about spring. *yawn* 

[buckeye]

Buckeye would be in heaven.  

 

if I had the option to either roll the dice on that or take a sure-thing torch....   I'd choose torch hands down, 

 

I-70 IN-OH corridor is in one of the most craptastic bad luck streaks right now relative to the surrounding areas and no reason to believe it will end before spring.

[Stebo]

Buckeye would be in heaven.  

That snow pattern has a 02-03 vibe to it, where the eastern portions of the subforum won out while Chicago and S WI got the shaft. I wouldn't put much stake in it at all, the only key take away is that there is a large system in that period that will affect the subforum, in what capacity remains to be seen. 

[Chambana]

if I had the option to either roll the dice on that or take a sure-thing torch.... I'd choose torch hands down,

I-70 IN-OH corridor is in one of the most craptastic bad luck streaks right now relative to the surrounding areas and no reason to believe it will end before spring.

We've had it pretty bad over in our neck of the woods too. Aside from March 25th 2013, when we received 11" of snowfall, our last true "big dog" was probably February 13th 2007.

January 5th 2014, "polar vortex blizzard" came close, but I think we only received 8" from that, it was the wind that was so impressive with that system, and of course the mother load of Arctic air that followed.

Things look mild in the extended that's for sure.