Jrad08 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Don't have precip maps, but it looks like a I-70 special.Agree temps are looking favorable along I-70 and euro took a step in the right direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 The euro not on board and the ukie south and weak are 2 very big red flags right now. Until the euro sees it and it's inside 72 hours....I ain't buying in. The 0z Euro operational didn't quite come north enough to give you I70 guys more than 1-2" but it's quite a move north. The GEM and GFS are in remarkable agreement as well, although the GEM is a shade more north and thus more rain for me in Cincy. I'd say this one definitely ain't over. I went ahead earlier this afternoon and put 30s with a mix in my online forecast because let's be honest....We know how this will end up at this rate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 The 0z Euro operational didn't quite come north enough to give you I70 guys more than 1-2" but it's quite a move north. The GEM and GFS are in remarkable agreement as well, although the GEM is a shade more north and thus more rain for me in Cincy. I'd say this one definitely ain't over. I went ahead earlier this afternoon and put 30s with a mix in my online forecast because let's be honest....We know how this will end up at this rate Lol adding a forecast for mixing in SW OH is a safe bet. Can't fault you one bit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 The 0z Euro operational didn't quite come north enough to give you I70 guys more than 1-2" but it's quite a move north. The GEM and GFS are in remarkable agreement as well, although the GEM is a shade more north and thus more rain for me in Cincy. I'd say this one definitely ain't over. I went ahead earlier this afternoon and put 30s with a mix in my online forecast because let's be honest....We know how this will end up at this rate OK so you're the red tagger.....does this come further north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 OK so you're the red tagger.....does this come further north?In my infinite wisdom, I will defer to the Euro ensembles But I do suspect it either comes north or near miss south. None of this deep south bowling bowl business. Sent from my Nexus 5X using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 In my infinite wisdom, I will defer to the Euro ensembles But I do suspect it either comes north or near miss south. None of this deep south bowling bowl business. Sent from my Nexus 5X using Tapatalk 5 years ago I would have total confidence in a trend north this far out and would even be worried about rain. Last few years it seems there really is no discernible trends like that. I could see it flattening out just as much as amping up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 0Z GFS had a really large ice then snow storm for Lower Michigan after the Thursday storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 5 years ago I would have total confidence in a trend north this far out and would even be worried about rain. Last few years it seems there really is no discernible trends like that. I could see it flattening out just as much as amping up.Yeah, wish there was a better feel on this one already. I don't see a massive trend north but we're in a plausible amount of shift still. (Barring it completely failing to materialize like you suggested)I see several GFS ensemble members are close to the op. Hoping the Euro members do the same. Even just a shift, not a full cave, would make me feel better. Sent from my Nexus 5X using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 IWX about Thursday BULK OF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A MORE SOUTHERLY ROUTE (AN OHIO VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND EVENT WITH SFC REFLECTION THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH OR TN VALLEY). WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR REGARDLESS AS A MORE FOCUSED PV ANOMALY AND JUST A LITTLE MORE RIDGING/LESS BLOCKING IN ADVANCE WOULD PROVIDE A FARTHER NORTH TRACK AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS LOCALLY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 good luck to the southern OH crew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 can i just lock in P10 and call it a winter? still a good number of the GEFS take it north...but they're hard to take seriously until the euro plays ball we'll probably see better consensus once the arctic front clears the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Haven't started one before....but here's the thread. Maybe I'll bring better luck to our neck of the woods than Hoosier does storm thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 can i just lock in P10 P005 and call it a winter? fyp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 NAEFS torch long range: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 That Wednesday event is looking more and more significant for an advisory snow for a large part of the sub....especially central IL and IN. Not sure if that's classified as a clipper or not. might need it's own thread if trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Yea just looked at it. I went from 1-2 to 3-4. I will take either at this point lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Really nothing exciting to look forward to unless cold dry and lake effect is your thing. Meanwhile on the east coast ****s about to go down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 GEFS has another longwave trough diving in during the Jan 27-29 period. 12Z GFS dives the energy deeper towards the Gulf with some better upper dynamics (120kts+ at H5), although the surface reflection looks similar in track to this weekend's system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 GEFS has another longwave trough diving in during the Jan 27-29 period. 12Z GFS dives the energy deeper towards the Gulf with some better upper dynamics (120kts+ at H5), although the surface reflection looks similar in track to this weekend's system. Did you look at the surface? Track is up the apps. Not that it matters at this point though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The GFS has a parade of snowstorms from Chicago to Boston all affecting different areas. I really like the chances for some snowstorm action within the next few weeks in the great lakes and Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The GFS has a parade of snowstorms from Chicago to Boston all affecting different areas. I really like the chances for some snowstorm action within the next few weeks in the great lakes and Northeast. Glad someone else noticed, too. Haha, my inner snow weenie is kicking in. Would be fun since this monster this weekend is going to the E coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The GFS has a parade of snowstorms from Chicago to Boston all affecting different areas. I really like the chances for some snowstorm action within the next few weeks in the great lakes and Northeast. GFS has a beautiful snow storm next Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The GFS has a parade of snowstorms from Chicago to Boston all affecting different areas. I really like the chances for some snowstorm action within the next few weeks in the great lakes and Northeast. I'll take that run. It would be funny if that January 31st system were to come as is, but on Groundhog's Day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I'll take that run. It would be funny if that January 31st system were to come as is, but on Groundhog's Day! Yeah, might as well add a part III to the GHD storm saga lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 long range is pretty brutal for the lakes on west, classic east coast pattern shaping up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Flashbacks of the 2009-10 winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Ugh 09-10, that will probably be every El Nino winter pattern from now on. They don't have Ninos like 06-07 very often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Next mon thru wed looks semi interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Yeah, I don't think 09-10 is the pattern coming up. I second this. Look at the analogs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 18Z GFS is like the 0Z GFS, lot's of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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