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Winter 2015-16 Medium-Long Range Discussion


OHweather

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The euro not on board and the ukie south and weak are 2 very big red flags right now. Until the euro sees it and it's inside 72 hours....I ain't buying in.

 

The 0z Euro operational didn't quite come north enough to give you I70 guys more than 1-2" but it's quite a move north.  The GEM and GFS are in remarkable agreement as well, although the GEM is a shade more north and thus more rain for me in Cincy.  I'd say this one definitely ain't over.  I went ahead earlier this afternoon and put 30s with a mix in my online forecast because let's be honest....We know how this will end up at this rate  :axe:

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The 0z Euro operational didn't quite come north enough to give you I70 guys more than 1-2" but it's quite a move north.  The GEM and GFS are in remarkable agreement as well, although the GEM is a shade more north and thus more rain for me in Cincy.  I'd say this one definitely ain't over.  I went ahead earlier this afternoon and put 30s with a mix in my online forecast because let's be honest....We know how this will end up at this rate  :axe:

Lol adding a forecast for mixing in SW OH is a safe bet. Can't fault you one bit!

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The 0z Euro operational didn't quite come north enough to give you I70 guys more than 1-2" but it's quite a move north.  The GEM and GFS are in remarkable agreement as well, although the GEM is a shade more north and thus more rain for me in Cincy.  I'd say this one definitely ain't over.  I went ahead earlier this afternoon and put 30s with a mix in my online forecast because let's be honest....We know how this will end up at this rate  :axe:

OK so you're the red tagger.....does this come further north?

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In my infinite wisdom, I will defer to the Euro ensembles :lmao:

But I do suspect it either comes north or near miss south. None of this deep south bowling bowl business.

Sent from my Nexus 5X using Tapatalk

5 years ago I would have total confidence in a trend north this far out and would even be worried about rain. Last few years it seems there really is no discernible trends like that. I could see it flattening out just as much as amping up.

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5 years ago I would have total confidence in a trend north this far out and would even be worried about rain. Last few years it seems there really is no discernible trends like that. I could see it flattening out just as much as amping up.

Yeah, wish there was a better feel on this one already. I don't see a massive trend north but we're in a plausible amount of shift still. (Barring it completely failing to materialize like you suggested)

I see several GFS ensemble members are close to the op. Hoping the Euro members do the same. Even just a shift, not a full cave, would make me feel better.

Sent from my Nexus 5X using Tapatalk

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IWX about Thursday

BULK OF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A MORE SOUTHERLY

ROUTE (AN OHIO VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND EVENT WITH SFC

REFLECTION THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH OR TN VALLEY). WILL BE SOMETHING

TO MONITOR REGARDLESS AS A MORE FOCUSED PV ANOMALY AND JUST A LITTLE

MORE RIDGING/LESS BLOCKING IN ADVANCE WOULD PROVIDE A FARTHER NORTH

TRACK AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS LOCALLY.

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GEFS has another longwave trough diving in during the Jan 27-29 period.

12Z GFS dives the energy deeper towards the Gulf with some better upper dynamics (120kts+ at H5), although the surface reflection looks similar in track to this weekend's system.

Ke3Iujj.gif

AZust5Z.gif

Did you look at the surface? Track is up the apps. Not that it matters at this point though.

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The GFS has a parade of snowstorms from Chicago to Boston all affecting different areas. I really like the chances for some snowstorm action within the next few weeks in the great lakes and Northeast.

Glad someone else noticed, too. Haha, my inner snow weenie is kicking in. Would be fun since this monster this weekend is going to the E coast.  :axe:

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The GFS has a parade of snowstorms from Chicago to Boston all affecting different areas. I really like the chances for some snowstorm action within the next few weeks in the great lakes and Northeast.

 

I'll take that run.

 

acckucherasnowconus.png

 

It would be funny if that January 31st system were to come as is, but on Groundhog's Day!

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