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Winter 2015-16 Medium-Long Range Discussion


OHweather

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Hey the overnight 0z Euro parallel run gives the Ohio River 10" on Friday.  All hope is not lost :)

Ya, just saw that with the 12z GFS as well.  But I like the fantasy end of the 12Z GFS run for Feb. 1 with a major storm and prospects of svr wx down south to let me start thinking of spring.  But it is the end of the run.

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Nah it will be above average by next weekend. 

 

As long as the +PNA remains neutral to positive and the MJO struggles to get out of Phase 2/3, regardless of snowpack, it'll be hard to get into a truly warm pattern, especially the further NE you get in the subforum.

 

But either way it goes temp-wise, big snowstorm prospects are bleak at best.  

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all potential fantasy snow opportunities over the next 10 days have evaporated.    So much for the "just-bring-the-cold-and-the-snow-will-take-care-of-itself" theory.

 

It really hasn't been cold, though.  7 of the past 15 days have had highs 40 or above, and only 6 days have actually been below normal.  The coldest stretch of the month so far did, in fact, bring the only accumulating snow for the month.  So snow did come with the cold, but the cold has been way underwhelming. 

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12Z GFS had a nice bowling ball low, albeit somewhat weak at around 1006mb before transferring to the coast and it never gets north of KY. Nice northern stream energy. Baby steps?

 

Need this to start digging earlier.

 

 

 

I guess you can say, clearly that 'something' is there for later week.   The euro is really not that far off the ggem and gfs.  The euro keeps the southern stream slower than the northern stream so heights can't really build out ahead and the trough remains positive sending it off the coast.    If the euro starts to speed up the southern stream and get out ahead of the northern stream then this thing can start going negative and gain some latitude and strength.   Big ifs...and it hasn't been the season for things to develop in a favorable snowy solution.  Just the opposite.

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It's not that far out

Look at the ensembles

Consensus is great

Three strikes you're out

18z GFS says maybe not would be nice hit for ALEK

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016011618&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=177

 

and awesome for st louis

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2016011618&fh=156&xpos=0&ypos=195

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Joestradamus throws in the white flag :frostymelt:  .  Is this the beginning of the end for the Winter weenies like myself who thought climo was not gonna rear it's ugly head?   JB even had a change of tone in his Saturday summary.   I guess only time will tell but I'm an eternal

 

optimist who just needs one big one...com'n baby :thumbsup:  

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It appears to be slowly moving north.

 

I'd take the 3 inches it's giving me now, but I'd perfer the 10 inches.

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Joestradamus throws in the white flag :frostymelt:  .  Is this the beginning of the end for the Winter weenies like myself who thought climo was not gonna rear it's ugly head?   JB even had a change of tone in his Saturday summary.   I guess only time will tell but I'm an eternal

 

optimist who just needs one big one...com'n baby :thumbsup:

Note his summary was not for public consumption today. Guessing his clients banking on his annual winter flip are going to be concerned 10 days from now.

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Yeah this is purely weenie dreaming and one of those things I won't trust until Tuesday at the earliest. I'll be anxious to see the 0z Euro's placement of the low and the extent to which it digs. With that being said the GFS and GGEM are starting to agree more especially with the high QPF values.

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It will be interesting to see what the GEFS have. The 12z  poo poo'd the Ops look for the most part.

I expect the ensembles to take a slight jog north. Several of them had the LP centered over Mississippi. My gut says it cuts more through central TN.

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