Stebo Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Mild relatively to the hell incoming the next couple of days? Perhaps. But still below average for this time of year. Nah it will be above average by next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Nah it will be above average by next weekend. Looks that way, though warmup could be muted initially if decent snow gets laid down this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 16, 2016 Author Share Posted January 16, 2016 Hey the overnight 0z Euro parallel run gives the Ohio River 10" on Friday. All hope is not lost Jeeze. The OHweather will be driving rule is in affect for that FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Hey the overnight 0z Euro parallel run gives the Ohio River 10" on Friday. All hope is not lost Ya, just saw that with the 12z GFS as well. But I like the fantasy end of the 12Z GFS run for Feb. 1 with a major storm and prospects of svr wx down south to let me start thinking of spring. But it is the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Nah it will be above average by next weekend. As long as the +PNA remains neutral to positive and the MJO struggles to get out of Phase 2/3, regardless of snowpack, it'll be hard to get into a truly warm pattern, especially the further NE you get in the subforum. But either way it goes temp-wise, big snowstorm prospects are bleak at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Looks that way, though warmup could be muted initially if decent snow gets laid down this week.Yeah if that happens then we'd be looking at a cooler solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 12Z GFS had a nice bowling ball low, albeit somewhat weak at around 1006mb before transferring to the coast and it never gets north of KY. Nice northern stream energy. Baby steps? Need this to start digging earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 all potential fantasy snow opportunities over the next 10 days have evaporated. So much for the "just-bring-the-cold-and-the-snow-will-take-care-of-itself" theory. It really hasn't been cold, though. 7 of the past 15 days have had highs 40 or above, and only 6 days have actually been below normal. The coldest stretch of the month so far did, in fact, bring the only accumulating snow for the month. So snow did come with the cold, but the cold has been way underwhelming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 12Z GFS had a nice bowling ball low, albeit somewhat weak at around 1006mb before transferring to the coast and it never gets north of KY. Nice northern stream energy. Baby steps? Need this to start digging earlier. I guess you can say, clearly that 'something' is there for later week. The euro is really not that far off the ggem and gfs. The euro keeps the southern stream slower than the northern stream so heights can't really build out ahead and the trough remains positive sending it off the coast. If the euro starts to speed up the southern stream and get out ahead of the northern stream then this thing can start going negative and gain some latitude and strength. Big ifs...and it hasn't been the season for things to develop in a favorable snowy solution. Just the opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 i don't think there is any chance of that midweek storm coming back north, that horse left the stable a while ago it's going to be a weak bowling ball cutoff across the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 i don't think there is any chance of that midweek storm coming back north, that horse left the stable a while ago it's going to be a weak bowling ball cutoff across the south /\ euro solution....so yea very possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 i don't think there is any chance of that midweek storm coming back north, that horse left the stable a while ago it's going to be a weak bowling ball cutoff across the south never say there is no chance to anything with the weather this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 never say there is no chance to anything with the weather this far out. It's not that far out Look at the ensembles Consensus is great Three strikes you're out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 It's not that far out Look at the ensembles Consensus is great Three strikes you're out 18z GFS says maybe not would be nice hit for ALEK http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016011618&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=177 and awesome for st louis http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2016011618&fh=156&xpos=0&ypos=195 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Would be nice to see a widespread overrunning event as we transition from bitter cold to warm. In most winters a normal outcome. All bets off in an El Niño year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Joestradamus throws in the white flag . Is this the beginning of the end for the Winter weenies like myself who thought climo was not gonna rear it's ugly head? JB even had a change of tone in his Saturday summary. I guess only time will tell but I'm an eternal optimist who just needs one big one...com'n baby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 18z GFS says maybe not would be nice hit for ALEK http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016011618&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=177 and awesome for st louis http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2016011618&fh=156&xpos=0&ypos=195 It appears to be slowly moving north. I'd take the 3 inches it's giving me now, but I'd perfer the 10 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Joestradamus throws in the white flag . Is this the beginning of the end for the Winter weenies like myself who thought climo was not gonna rear it's ugly head? JB even had a change of tone in his Saturday summary. I guess only time will tell but I'm an eternal optimist who just needs one big one...com'n baby Note his summary was not for public consumption today. Guessing his clients banking on his annual winter flip are going to be concerned 10 days from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Note his summary was not for public consumption today. Guessing his clients banking on his annual winter flip are going to be concerned 10 days from now. Copy that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 And the 0Z NAM came in the farthest north (so far) for the storm on Wed.. EDIT: Meant Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterStorm294 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 And the 0Z NAM came in the farthest north (so far) for the storm on Thursday. The NAM doesn't go far enough out to see what the Thursday storm does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 The NAM doesn't go far enough out to see what the Thursday storm does. Must be the new NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 And the 0Z NAM came in the farthest north (so far) for the storm on Thursday. At the rate this winter is going, it will keep tracking north and be in Manitoba by Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 00z gfs shows 8-12 inch storm across south Indiana and Ohio. My money says this storm is thread worthy by tomorrow night as there has been some agreement through most runs today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 GGEM weenie map. Temp profiles are marginal as to what is frozen precip, but most temps stay below freezing between Indy and Dayton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 The euro not on board and the ukie south and weak are 2 very big red flags right now. Until the euro sees it and it's inside 72 hours....I ain't buying in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Yeah this is purely weenie dreaming and one of those things I won't trust until Tuesday at the earliest. I'll be anxious to see the 0z Euro's placement of the low and the extent to which it digs. With that being said the GFS and GGEM are starting to agree more especially with the high QPF values. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 It will be interesting to see what the GEFS have. The 12z poo poo'd the Ops look for the most part. I expect the ensembles to take a slight jog north. Several of them had the LP centered over Mississippi. My gut says it cuts more through central TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Don't have precip maps, but it looks like a I-70 special. Nice seeing that cold air tap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 The Euro is north from where it was at 12z with LP going from MS to the coast of SC. Does anyone have a precip map for the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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