Winter 2015-16 Medium-Long Range Discussion

[LizardMafia]

At this rate, we should just start talking about spring!

[gosaints]

euro brings the torch

Flashback to december... Unlikely verify but would be a much more exciting pattern with chances at decent storms again between warm spells

[Chambana]

nina is a long way off, we're stuck in strong nino conditions for the remainder of the winter

Yup, and some were expecting a rapid decline to neutral conditions by spring, I don't see that happening.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Sorry, since we're still on the same page where we started talking about the Nina, I can still make a case that it's still relevant. I wanna post the JAMSTEC that updated today.

 

Very aggressive with the transition.

 

 

Here's how it performed at this time in 2010 regarding the 2010-2012 Nina

 

Not gonna lie... starting to get excited about the Nina. I know, we still have to pass through the spring barrier unfortunately. That sucks.

[nwburbschaser]

Any potential La Nina is a long way from being relevant. 

[gosaints]

Sorry, since we're still on the same page where we started talking about the Nina, I can still make a case that it's still relevant. I wanna post the JAMSTEC that updated today.

 

Very aggressive with the transition.

 

 

Here's how it performed at this time in 2010 regarding the 2010-2012 Nina

 

Not gonna lie... starting to get excited about the Nina. I know, we still have to pass through the spring barrier unfortunately. That sucks.

Its been funny to watch all these forecast calling for a rapid nino decline since november..... and here we sit

[wisconsinwx]

Yeah I love Ninas compared to Ninos. East coast Weenies pretty much universally hate them on the other hand (-PNAs tend to go hand in hand which are usually warm and boring for them.)

[Chambana]

Yeah I love Ninas compared to Ninos. East coast Weenies pretty much universally hate them on the other hand (-PNAs tend to go hand in hand which are usually warm and boring for them.)

Exactly. February 2010 compared to 2011, night and day difference for both subs.

[blizzardof96]

I played around with some ONI/snowfall numbers a few months ago. I found that winter snowfall in the GTA averages 62" when the DJF ONI is between 0.0 and -1.5. The peak tends to lie in the moderate nina range.

 

ONI 0.0 to -0.4: 55"   ONI -0.5 to -0.9: 59"  ONI -1.0 to -1.5: 72" ONI -1.6 to -2.0:  40"

[OHweather]

During most strong Ninas, the SE Ridge commonly rears its ugly head along with the dreaded ++EPO.  Attached are temp anomaly maps with all strong Ninas since 1950 and all strong Ninas since 1950 with the two cold exceptions (1970-71 & 2010-2011) removed.  On the bottom map, you can see the SE ridge and the +EPO torch much of the country and to some extent the top map.

We definitely get iffier in strong Ninas, although for the sub-forum overall La Nina's are decidedly better, and I think the maps you posted bear that out...with a strong temp gradient over the southern/eastern end of the sub which would suggest overall storminess and possibly above average snow for a lot of the Great Lakes. If we got a strong La Nina and continue the trend mentioned by csnavywx of a more negative AO it could work out well for Ohio still...which could happen with a likely -QBO next winter.

[SpartyOn]

12z GFS has some potential nasty cold around D10.

[tuanis]

12z GFS has some potential nasty cold around D10.

 

Seeing that too. Today's runs of the GFS don't look so warm in the extended. Still think we return to a more pacific-dominated pattern, but it doesn't look like a repeat of what we saw much of December.

[Geos]

ENSO region 4 and 1+2 have cooled the most recently.

 

 

If we have a solid moderate to strong la Niña and a tame SE ridge, we could really be rockin' the storms in the subforum like Stebo said yesterday.

 

The EURO cyclops low continues to trend into the sub tropics. Would side with the GFS vs. the EURO in the long range.

 

[Stebo]

Truncated faux ridge.

The GFS doesn't truncate anytime during the run, I don't know why you keep saying this but it is patently false.

[A-L-E-K]

Lol

[A-L-E-K]

Lol x2

[Stebo]

Call it whatever you wish, models blow bringing energy off the pacific after 168hrs(and have enough issues at 100hrs lol). They are to fast and take stuff in the GofA and have it over Minnesota a day later. That creates a situation where a ridge pops up where the former energy was stationed.

That isn't truncation though... that is a model bias with respect to the speed energy is moving which is a completely different thing. The ridge popping up where a trough was though is usually how things go especially in a progressive pattern, which we are in.

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

18Z GFS trended further north for the next thursday system, has been for the past couple runs.

[andyhb]

Any potential La Nina is a long way from being relevant. 

 

We have this thread for a reason...

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/46390-el-nino-watch/

[Chinook]

That isn't truncation though... that is a model bias with respect to the speed energy is moving which is a completely different thing. The ridge popping up where a trough was though is usually how things go especially in a progressive pattern, which we are in.

Note, the GFS changes resolution from 13km to a lower resolution at 240 hours. If you see a weird thing at 168 hours, it can't be the truncation problem.

[Geos]

Stratospheric warming event about to hit the polar regions.

 

[Stebo]

Note, the GFS changes resolution from 13km to a lower resolution at 240 hours. If you see a weird thing at 168 hours, it can't be the truncation problem.

Did not notice that, the change must be small then. Either way as you noted it isn't at 168hr.

[Powerball]

So basically, more below average temps and relatively dry weather as we go forward.

 

Nice.

[A-L-E-K]

No, it's going to be mild. Stop listening to weenies

[buckeye]

all potential fantasy snow opportunities over the next 10 days have evaporated.    So much for the "just-bring-the-cold-and-the-snow-will-take-care-of-itself" theory.

[SpartyOn]

all potential fantasy snow opportunities over the next 10 days have evaporated. So much for the "just-bring-the-cold-and-the-snow-will-take-care-of-itself" theory.

Downwind of the lakes that theory has worked well. Which IMO the original intent of that comment referenced the lake belts and most of Michigan. ALEK and his blanket statements of mild weather might hold some merit but given poor performance on many of the globals it should be taken with a grain of salt.

[buckeye]

Downwind of the lakes that theory has worked well. Which IMO the original intent of that comment referenced the lake belts and most of Michigan. ALEK and his blanket statements of mild weather might hold some merit but given poor performance on many of the globals it should be taken with a grain of salt.

 

Wasn't referring to a specific post or comment.  I've seen it alluded to throughout the forum, that if we get the cold, snow is inevitable and it wasn't a reference to LES. (that's obvious anyways).

 

Ironically the biggest snowstorm for the sub came in the midst of a period in which the storm was bookended with relatively mild air.

[Powerball]

No, it's going to be mild. Stop listening to weenies

 

Mild relatively to the hell incoming the next couple of days? Perhaps.

 

But still below average for this time of year.

[Jrad08]

all potential fantasy snow opportunities over the next 10 days have evaporated. So much for the "just-bring-the-cold-and-the-snow-will-take-care-of-itself" theory.

12z gfs still holding onto a possibility next week for us Ohio folks

[wxdudemike]

all potential fantasy snow opportunities over the next 10 days have evaporated.    So much for the "just-bring-the-cold-and-the-snow-will-take-care-of-itself" theory.

Hey the overnight 0z Euro parallel run gives the Ohio River 10" on Friday.  All hope is not lost