SpartyOn Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 To be fair, it's been a long time since the DGEX had a legit solution. It's due. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Anyone seen the euro weeklies lately? Wondering what the show. The torchy cfs of all models has cold through the end of Jan, wondering what the euro weeklies show (I ask because I dont know of any other long range guidance other than the GFS lol). Euro weeklies look wretched for weeks 2-4 with a ++AO possible by Weeks 3-4. Week 1: -AO goes neutral; -NAO goes neutral; EPO is basically neutral and PNA is positive. Below normal temps, but exiting by the end of Week 1. Week 2: AO neutral, +NAO, +EPO (heights fall over AK and the GOAK) and +PNA. Gets torchy over the northern half of the USA. Week 3: +AO, +NAO, ++EPO (nasty one eyed monster over Bering Strait) and neutral PNA. Temps above normal over north but not as bad as Week 2 though ++EPO w/ the one eyed monster would argue for December like warmth. Week 4: +AO, +NAO, +EPO begins to fall though and +PNA. Temps still above normal over north but become more normal by end of run. One eyed monster begins to retrograde allowing for a PNA ridge to pop. Ick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Is La Niña here yet? Speaking of la Niña, here is the latest prediction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Speaking of la Niña, here is the latest prediction. That would be absolutely ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Speaking of la Niña, here is the latest prediction. I pray to god this happens, you talk about a blockbuster winter if that happens. We will be neck deep in storms of all types. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 DGEX has a storm. Nuff said. It isn't the only clown in the car, the parallel Euro shows something similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 DGEX has a storm. Nuff said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 hailmary.jpg Dude was a dud...I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I pray to god this happens, you talk about a blockbuster winter if that happens. We will be neck deep in storms of all types. What makes that a stormy look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Euro weeklies look wretched for weeks 2-4 with a ++AO possible by Weeks 3-4. Week 1: -AO goes neutral; -NAO goes neutral; EPO is basically neutral and PNA is positive. Below normal temps, but exiting by the end of Week 1. Week 2: AO neutral, +NAO, +EPO (heights fall over AK and the GOAK) and +PNA. Gets torchy over the northern half of the USA. Week 3: +AO, +NAO, ++EPO (nasty one eyed monster over Bering Strait) and neutral PNA. Temps above normal over north but not as bad as Week 2 though ++EPO w/ the one eyed monster would argue for December like warmth. Week 4: +AO, +NAO, +EPO begins to fall though and +PNA. Temps still above normal over north but become more normal by end of run. One eyed monster begins to retrograde allowing for a PNA ridge to pop. Ick. ick is right. Im hoping for some snowstorm chances the last week of Jan (will be off). Of course, in the dead of winter, temps are not usually an issue (barring a true torch), the question is, will it be active? Interestingly, it sounds like the euro weeklies are the warmest of all models to end Jan (compared to cfs,, gefs, geps). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 What makes that a stormy look? La Ninas yield here nicely. That's an extremely strong La Nina to boot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 La Ninas yield here nicely. That's an extremely strong La Nina to boot. Would certainly compete with the strongest on record. But even if you take 1C off that Nina, that's still gonna make for some awesome weather around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I pray to god this happens, you talk about a blockbuster winter if that happens. We will be neck deep in storms of all types. Doesn't a strong la Niña really speed up the jet stream? Doesn't it lead to a roller coaster ride throughout the winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 15, 2016 Author Share Posted January 15, 2016 Doesn't a strong la Niña really speed up the jet stream? Doesn't it lead to a roller coaster ride throughout the winter?A strong La Niña weakens the STJ which makes it harder for the whole continent to be flooded with warmth. It also tends to put a ridge over the N. Pac (as opposed to a low) due to tropical forcing being located much farther west than during an El Niño which favors troughing in the western and central US along with a stronger polar jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 What makes that a stormy look? Besides what others have posted, anecdotally, look at what the last three moderate/strong La Nina winters following El Nino events have yielded in the GL region (1999, 2008 and 2011). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 A strong La Niña weakens the STJ which makes it harder for the whole continent to be flooded with warmth. It also tends to put a ridge over the N. Pac (as opposed to a low) due to tropical forcing being located much farther west than during an El Niño which favors troughing in the western and central US along with a stronger polar jet. Ok - thank. Wasn't sure. Been awhile since a la Niña was far under -1.5. I'd say let's go for a record breaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Yikes for you snow lovers, awesome for the people like myself. Although, the Euro has a big snowstorm before that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 getting that deja-vous-all-over-again feel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 getting that deja-vous-all-over-again feel Good googly moogly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Yeah, I don't understand why some were saying this was going to be a tough winter to forecast. Basically, a super Nino is your best friend. The only time it gets contested is if you get a wildly negative -AO (like the one we just got via a ridiculously record-strong Kara Sea ridge -- complete with above freezing temps all the way to the pole). But, as soon as that backs off, it's back to firehose flooding of the source regions with warm Pacific air. Going to have to hope that the strat PV breaks down in earnest soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 On the very long term (the next few years), the fact that we seem to be able to generate strong -AO regimes almost every year is otherwise a boon for snow lovers. Just have to watch those super strong ENSO regimes. They don't play nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Yeah, I don't understand why some were saying this was going to be a tough winter to forecast. Basically, a super Nino is your best friend. The only time it gets contested is if you get a wildly negative -AO (like the one we just got via a ridiculously record-strong Kara Sea ridge -- complete with above freezing temps all the way to the pole). But, as soon as that backs off, it's back to firehose flooding of the source regions with warm Pacific air. Going to have to hope that the strat PV breaks down in earnest soon. Even a stratospheric PV breakdown may not save the winter. This comes from Dr. Cohen: And despite our expectations of a polar vortex split, the models are predicting a displacement of the polar vortex bodily into northern Eurasia, which is reminiscent of late January 2006. In the period of January-March 2006, temperatures averaged well below normal across Northern Eurasia but were mild across North America. Whether this temperature anomaly pattern will repeat is hard to tell, but so far January 2016 is likely to average colder in the Central and Eastern United States than January 2006 and probably favors an overall relatively colder solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 weenies gonna weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 GFS has 50Fs into Omaha long range... NAEFS shows the whole country going warm... Looks like we get a break from the cold until until next month after this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 A strong La Niña weakens the STJ which makes it harder for the whole continent to be flooded with warmth. It also tends to put a ridge over the N. Pac (as opposed to a low) due to tropical forcing being located much farther west than during an El Niño which favors troughing in the western and central US along with a stronger polar jet. During most strong Ninas, the SE Ridge commonly rears its ugly head along with the dreaded ++EPO. Attached are temp anomaly maps with all strong Ninas since 1950 and all strong Ninas since 1950 with the two cold exceptions (1970-71 & 2010-2011) removed. On the bottom map, you can see the SE ridge and the +EPO torch much of the country and to some extent the top map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I'd much rather take my chances with a strong Niña over a strong Nino any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 euro brings the torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 More maps....The first map is of strong Nina winters following a strong El Nino. The second map shows all Ninas following a strong Nino. Winters are since 1950. I don't know about you guys in MI, IL, IN, WI but I will be rooting for a weak to a somewhat moderate Nina for next winter as I am more affected by the SE Ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 If you want a blockbuster storm in the Great Lakes, a Nina is often the way to get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 nina is a long way off, we're stuck in strong nino conditions for the remainder of the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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