Central Illinois Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 yeah, it's over bro It's been over here since December 1st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 our January window is closing fast according to the euro.... That's ok, looking forward to our rock'n Feb that everyone has been pointing to since November. our January window is closing fast according to the euro.... That's ok, looking forward to our rock'n Feb that everyone has been pointing to since November. That's one really extended Pac Jet! According to HM, the jet extension is the result of a huge East Asian mountain torque event. He is expecting a more typical El Nino temp anomaly pattern from late this month into the first third of Feb. HM is banking on a better PNA setup & possibly a -NAO returning by mid Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Update from the AER on the state of the AO and stratosphere. At least on the 11th, a SSW is predicted to take place the last week of the month and weaken the rest of the elongated stratospheric vortex. The AO is currently strongly negative and is predicted to remain negative over the next two weeks. The negative AO is reflective of positive pressure/geopotential height anomalies over the entire Arctic basin. The mid-latitudes are dominated by negative pressure/geopotential height anomalies, including the Eastern United States, Northern Europe and East Asia. This is a significant weakening of the strength of the polar vortex in in the troposphere, a southward displacement of the Jet Stream and an overall colder temperature pattern. Initially across western Eurasia the coldest departures from normal are across northeastern Europe. However during the course of this week the models are predicting for the cold air to spread west across Western Europe and linger for the next two weeks as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is predicted to follow the AO into negative territory. Across East Asia temperatures are cold and is predicted to persist into the foreseeable future. Across North America one Arctic outbreak is currently spreading form the Plains to the East Coast and a second Arctic outbreak is predicted for next week across central North America. Temperatures along the East Coast of the United States looks to remain variable as the storm track becomes more active across the country. One strong pulse of energy transfer from the troposphere to the stratosphere just before the holidays has perturbed and stretched the polar vortex, which has helped to initiate the cooling across the mid-latitudes. A secondary pulse of energy last week has helped to maintain the elongated orientation of the polar vortex and we continue to anticipate even further energy transfer. The models are now coming into better consensus for a stronger pulse of energy transfer beginning next week that is predicted to initiate a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) at the end of the month. The overall negative AO and the elongated polar vortex favor cold temperatures in the middle of the continents including Siberia and the Plains of North America while and active storm track and vertical energy transfer favor more variable and seasonable temperatures in Western Europe and the United States East Coast. https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation GEFS plot of the AO from the 11th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Update from the AER on the state of the AO and stratosphere. At least on the 11th, a SSW is predicted to take place the last week of the month and weaken the rest of the elongated stratospheric vortex. https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation GEFS plot of the AO from the 11th. This is good news for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Here are the two trop-strat energy transfers Cohen is talking about. The transfer circled on the left is the one that occurred before the holidays and the transfer on the right (0z GFS modeled) is what is expected to occur within the next few weeks. Update from the AER on the state of the AO and stratosphere. At least on the 11th, a SSW is predicted to take place the last week of the month and weaken the rest of the elongated stratospheric vortex. https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation GEFS plot of the AO from the 11th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 you guys are tossing some deep weenie bombs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 you guys are tossing some deep weenie bombs They are trying not to look at long range depictions of any model as they have flashbacks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 check out the 12z euro for next weeks storm. Cuts off the low around Houston and takes about 3 days to move a precip bomb from there to the Carolina coast. Nice HP over the lakes the whole time but no cold sector precip. what happened to fast flow being our problem...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 check out the 12z euro for next weeks storm. Cuts off the low around Houston and takes about 3 days to move a precip bomb from there to the Carolina coast. Nice HP over the lakes the whole time but no cold sector precip. what happened to fast flow being our problem...lol was just about to post it, a face only a mother could love Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 check out the 12z euro for next weeks storm. Cuts off the low around Houston and takes about 3 days to move a precip bomb from there to the Carolina coast. Nice HP over the lakes the whole time but no cold sector precip. what happened to fast flow being our problem...lol There is no cold sector Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 ...meanwhile the ggem has an icestorm for the I-70 corridor and the gfs has a major snowstorm cutting to our south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 was just about to post it, a face only a mother could love this might be shaping up to be the wacko storm of the 15-16 nino winter. The sister storm of early Feb '98 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 The GGEM is brutally cold. -20s in Illinois in the medium range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 euro needs an upgrade: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 ...meanwhile the ggem has an icestorm for the I-70 corridor and the gfs has a major snowstorm cutting to our south and east. You know there's nothing I like more than a crippling ice storm. I could die a happy man ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 The GGEM is brutally cold. -20s in Illinois in the medium range. F that! Where's spring again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 The GGEM is brutally cold. -20s in Illinois in the medium range. It also drops western mn to -35 air temp.... the model sucks at depicting 2m temps in these situations. Its gonna be cold but not as cold as the GGEM shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Ice Ice baby.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 you guys are tossing some deep weenie bombs I guess if some of these guys were talking up a winter torch then it wouldn't be considered weenie.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 check out the 12z euro for next weeks storm. Cuts off the low around Houston and takes about 3 days to move a precip bomb from there to the Carolina coast. Nice HP over the lakes the whole time but no cold sector precip. what happened to fast flow being our problem...lol Luckily, no ensemble support. The ensembles actually sort of support the 12z GFS Also the Euro control is heart-break track up I-71 for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 The GFS doesn't make any sense. Its disorganization in its handling is seen at 120 hours and continues onward. I think the Euro's point is the models need to relax the heights and go more zonal. You aren't going to get any meaningful system with a PAC flow like that. Yeah, but I also have a hard time seeing a slow rolling cut-off low like the Euro operational depicts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Yeah, but I also have a hard time seeing a slow rolling cut-off low like the Euro operational depicts. euro ens look really good for our neck of the woods. General track is along the lower TN valley with an inverted up into the OV and then a secondary popping off the coast. The individual members show a bunch of nice hits right up the river valley, also a few north of that and many more south. The most likely miss looks like it would be because of suppression vs. cutting north, which seems odd considering the euro starts to get the AO and NAO to neutral at that point. Have to wonder if the ggem is on to something with an ice threat for part of the sub considering the strength of the cold coming in late weekend and early next week. No easy way for that cold to quickly escape. Of course we're dissecting an 8 day euro, so take it for what little it's worth, (but it's all we got too ) ....it'll change 10 more times but, for the next 10 hours it's an interesting run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 euro ens look really good for our neck of the woods. General track is along the lower TN valley with an inverted up into the OV and then a secondary popping off the coast. The individual members show a bunch of nice hits right up the river valley, also a few north of that and many more south. The most likely miss looks like it would be because of suppression vs. cutting north, which seems odd considering the euro starts to get the AO and NAO to neutral at that point. Have to wonder if the ggem is on to something with an ice threat for part of the sub considering the strength of the cold coming in late weekend and early next week. No easy way for that cold to quickly escape. Of course we're dissecting an 8 day euro, so take it for what little it's worth, (but it's all we got too ) ....it'll change 10 more times but, for the next 10 hours it's an interesting run. Tracks similar to this tend to favor us Ohio guys because they are often prolonged events. I think a big question for next week will be how the temp profiles pan out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Is La Niña here yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 14, 2016 Author Share Posted January 14, 2016 euro ens look really good for our neck of the woods. General track is along the lower TN valley with an inverted up into the OV and then a secondary popping off the coast. The individual members show a bunch of nice hits right up the river valley, also a few north of that and many more south. The most likely miss looks like it would be because of suppression vs. cutting north, which seems odd considering the euro starts to get the AO and NAO to neutral at that point. Have to wonder if the ggem is on to something with an ice threat for part of the sub considering the strength of the cold coming in late weekend and early next week. No easy way for that cold to quickly escape. Of course we're dissecting an 8 day euro, so take it for what little it's worth, (but it's all we got too ) ....it'll change 10 more times but, for the next 10 hours it's an interesting run. I'm not digging this one yet. But I don't totally hate it either. I'm glad the op doesn't have much /if any ensemble support but a solution like that...a cut off moving by to the south with no cold...would just be so fitting this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Anyone seen the euro weeklies lately? Wondering what the show. The torchy cfs of all models has cold through the end of Jan, wondering what the euro weeklies show (I ask because I dont know of any other long range guidance other than the GFS lol). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 DGEX has a storm. Nuff said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 DGEX has a storm. Nuff said. To be fair, it's been a long time since the DGEX had a legit solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 DGEX has a storm. Nuff said. Thanks.. I needed a good laugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 18Z GFS shifted a bit northeast on that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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