buckeye Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 yeah...was just gonna say GFS has it too and agree Jonger...via the GFS and Canadian it looks like the warmth is a relatively quick shot (which we'll see what that even translates to with a new snowpack down)...then back to normal or slightly below normal temps Models have taken an ugly turn. The tease of a possible post Thanksgiving cool down is quickly evaporating. Classic El Nino look for late Nov into Dec is taking shape. Maybe it's just a hiccup, but even the ggem 00z 9-10 day look is dramatically different from yesterday's 12z. I think we're going to see a lot of these mirage 10 day cool downs for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 The 06z gfs has an epic, historic, unprecedented soul crushing endless subtropical fed rain. Pwats are off the ****ing charts. Obviously subject to change. But as buckeye said the models have turned flat nasty nino style Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 The 06z gfs has an epic, historic, unprecedented soul crushing endless subtropical fed rain. Regardless of the sensible weather outcome temp-wise in early December, I can see this is nothing but a good sign for winter. The current impending snowstorm and then this? So much for a classic Nino precip pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Regardless of the sensible weather outcome temp-wise in early December, I can see this is nothing but a good sign for winter. The current impending snowstorm and then this? So much for a classic Nino precip pattern That dry look in CA is really strange for an El NIno....no doubt. You also have to be careful about the mentality, "if that was in January, just imagine..." After all, what's driving that subtropical feed is also what's driving the warmth. I look at that and think, great, 40's and rain all winter...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 That dry look in CA is really strange for an El NIno....no doubt. You also have to be careful about the mentality, "if that was in January, just imagine..." After all, what's driving that subtropical feed is also what's driving the warmth. I look at that and think, great, 40's and rain all winter...lol. Definitely less moisture in winter. I always cringe when a summer thunderstorm drops 3" and you hear "if this was winter we would see 30" of snow!". Even our huge storm last February that netted 16.5" of snow only had 1.08" liquid. That setup on Fall or spring would have probably been a deluge of rain.I just mean in general, a stormy look in this region is good. We are over two months away from what they call "the dead of winter". And in a predicted back end winter no less. I have no doubt that after the last two severe winters and a strong nino in place, I am going to have to remember what a winter rain storm is and deal with it. But any semblance of a stormy pattern bodes well for the overall outcome (snow wise) of winter (up here). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QcSevereWx Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 no snow here in Quebec, the 12z GFS 192h puts the snow line in Chibougamau. but a snowstorm in Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 As far as most of us, probably not (hi climo). And those that do manage to get snow, outside the LES belts, probably won't get much. None of these waves (open / sheared out / positive-tilt) seem particularly moist, nor do they appear to produce a lot of cold sector precip. Massive fail on my part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 I think the next system of interest with respect to snow will be when the cutoff ejects out of the southwest. Last few runs of the GFS have a swath of snow with it as it moves west to east through the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 Even to my novice eye the region looks active WRT wintery weather ... The last few days have been quite remarkable considering the warm weather as of late. Question is how long does the colder weather stay ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 I agree. We have these massive snowguns surrounding the subforum, but most of us live in the wrong spots. I remember getting mad at my parents as a kid once I realized we lived on the wrong side of the state. LOL. SEMI native, so I cracked up when I read this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 The Aleutian low is most likely to come south and east and affect California when AAM is high and the PDO is negative, and even moreso when the eastern waters in the tropics are the warmest, which they aren't. Overall, the CFS' classic el Nino look but with a slightly retracted Aleutian low makes a lot of sense. I don't think SoCal is guaranteed significant rain this winter, although Seattle to San Fran obviously have a very good shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 Regardless of the sensible weather outcome temp-wise in early December, I can see this is nothing but a good sign for winter. The current impending snowstorm and then this? So much for a classic Nino precip pattern It's actually pretty common to see an active subtropical jet during an el Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 It's actually pretty common to see an active subtropical jet during an el Nino. Unless you meant it isn't classic in the sense that the anomalies won't necessarily line up with the statistical mean of all past el Ninos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 Well, I posted 3 times, why not 4!? Today's 10mb chart suggests we are starting to break records in the stratosphere. Definitely no reason to think there is significant cold air in sight with such a monster PV. But like we just saw, 15 inches of snow can happen when it's 34 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 Gonna have to watch this little system in the Monday night/Tuesday time frame. Some of the models have hinted at a little wave of snow somewhere in the western lakes/upper MW as a final wave runs up the baroclinic zone left in place . Euro lays down a wide swath of 1-4" accums from Iowa to northern-lower MI and upper MI. Even lays down some pockets of heavy snow in eastern WI and northern-lower MI. The GFS has trended towards something similar with the 00z, but still not as impressive as the Euro. Something to watch anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 Gonna have to watch this little system in the Monday night/Tuesday time frame. Some of the models have hinted at a little wave of snow somewhere in the western lakes/upper MW as a final wave runs up the baroclinic zone left in place . Euro lays down a wide swath of 1-4" accums from Iowa to northern-lower MI and upper MI. Even lays down some pockets of heavy snow in eastern WI and northern-lower MI. The GFS has trended towards something similar with the 00z, but still not as impressive as the Euro. Something to watch anyway. This will be an interesting setup to watch. It looks like the remnants of Sandra will have some play in this as that big upper level low ejects eastward. 00z Euro really dumps on N IA/S MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 This will be an interesting setup to watch. It looks like the remnants of Sandra will have some play in this as that big upper level low ejects eastward. 00z Euro really dumps on N IA/S MN. Yeah this is looking more and more interesting. Both the 06z and 12z GFS really deepen the storm as it lifts north Monday night and Tuesday. Nice wide swath of 4-8" it looks like from central IA up through parts of MN and WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 Yet another monstrous trough (and I emphasize monstrous) over the western half of the country on the Euro OP towards mid month. This has been a pretty consistent signal on the ensembles for awhile now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 Yet another monstrous trough (and I emphasize monstrous) over the western half of the country on the Euro OP towards mid month. This has been a pretty consistent signal on the ensembles for awhile now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 Not sure you'll see a much stronger signal than that 10 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 Yet another monstrous trough (and I emphasize monstrous) over the western half of the country on the Euro OP towards mid month. This has been a pretty consistent signal on the ensembles for awhile now. Huge bowl shaped trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 Huge bowl shaped trough It will be interesting to watch. Euro continues to try to get a slightly negative -AO/NAO and a -PNA with the EPO heading downward as well. All by Dec 11th or shortly after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 Severe or winter..... No weather interested person is digging this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 you're in the medium/long range thread, jon we have a thread for ongoing boring weather let's discuss the well advertised extreme amplification on deck (again) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 Trough is actually too amplified. Beta effect will just cause it to retrograde and eventually cut-off. Euro actually starts to show it retrograde at the end of the run. Ridge would then cut-off and dampen and/or roll-over. Everyone from the Plains on east gets embedded in (very) warm, moist southerly flow. If the ridge were to roll-over at the right time, we could see a bit of a modified, transient cold air dump that would open the door to snow for a few days, but given that that black hole PV present near the pole, the high-quality cold air probably stays locked up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 I'm down: https://gyazo.com/eafd83e39e2893313e5540e3ca05bbcf Seems as if models are agreeing on some large storm in fantasy land. Nice to see something popping up in this lull of activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 Just an unreal warm sector on that 00z Euro verbatim. To give an idea, there's mid 50s dews almost to the UP and Green Bay, mid 60s to Champaign, upper 60s almost to LSX and 70s to Greenville, MS. Seems the signal for a significant storm continues, but man there would be a lot of records broken if that type of WAA is achieved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 Just an unreal warm sector on that 00z Euro verbatim. To give an idea, there's mid 50s dews almost to the UP and Green Bay, mid 60s to Champaign, upper 60s almost to LSX and 70s to Greenville, MS. Seems the signal for a significant storm continues, but man there would be a lot of records broken if that type of WAA is achieved. Agreed, but, let me guess, no CAPE like the rest of the storms? #Dreamcasting PS. I'll soon be able to know this info with a subscription to this site or EuroWx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 Agreed, but, let me guess, no CAPE like the rest of the storms? #Dreamcasting You'd be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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